Polish AF: preparing for 1939

[bobbysocks]

and grow their economies for a few years

iirc wasnt that the whole purpose of annexing and invading all these lands....the german enconomy wasnt the greatest.

 

[buffnut453]

A propos of absolutely nothing, the Poles were in discussion with Brewster to buy a variant of the Model 339 (aka Buffalo). It would probably be something akin to the B339B that was sold to the Belgians.

 

[davebender]

Not sure where you get your economic data. By 1935 the German economy was booming.

Spreadsheet with GDP data used to be available from the below site:
Maddison Project

 

[bobbysocks]

according to that the german economy was in absolute great shape until 1945. the highest GDP was reported in 44.

Hjalmar Schacht was replaced in 1937 by Hermann Goering when he resigned. Goering introduced the four-year plan whose main aim was to make Germany self-sufficient to fight a war within four years. Under Goering imports were slashed. Wages and prices were controlled—under penalty of being sent to a concentration camp. Dividends were restricted to six percent on book capital. And strategic goals to be reached at all costs were declared: the construction of synthetic rubber plants, more steel plants, automatic textile factories.

While the strict state intervention into the economy, and the massive rearmament policy, almost led to full employment during the 1930s, real wages in Germany dropped by roughly 25% between 1933 and 1938. Trade unions were abolished, as well as collective bargaining and the right to strike. In place of ordinary profit incentive to guide investment, investment was guided through regulation to accord with needs of the State. Government financing eventually came to dominate the investment process, which the proportion of private securities issued falling from over half of the total in 1933 and 1934 to approximately 10 percent in 1935–1938. Heavy taxes on profits limited self-financing of firms. The largest firms were mostly exempt from taxes on profits, however government control of these were extensive.

Another part of the new German economy was massive rearmament, with the goal being to expand the 100,000-strong German army into a force of millions under the Four-Year Plan. The war came and although the Four-Year Plan technically expired in 1940, Hermann Göring had built up a power base that effectively controlled all German economic and production matters by this point in time. In 1942 the growing burdens of the war and the death of Todt saw the economy move to a full war economy under Albert Speer.

This collection is based on these three economic publications:
•Monatliche Nachweise-ber den Auswartigen Handel Deutschlands (January 1933-June 1939)
•Der Aussenhandel Deutschlands Monatliche Nachweise (July 1939)
•Sondernachweis der Aussenhandel Deutschlands (August 1939-1944).


The Nazis and the German Economy

From 1933 to 1939, the Nazi government always spent more than it earned so that by 1939, government debt stood at over 40 billion Resichsmarks.

and real earnings in 1938 were all but the same as the 1928 figure. Real earnings are wages adjusted to allow for inflation

 

[davebender]

Which was a huge improvement from German real earnings during 1933.

I suspect USA real earnings in 1938 were still below 1928 level as our economy performed poorly during FDR administration. American unemployment was still high during 1939 despite the massive naval construction program and a bunch of large public works programs.

 

[parsifal]

The problem with the allying with germany scenario is that Germany wasnt intersted in being polands ally.

As it was, the PAF did surpisingly well in the campaign. It was airborne for about 2 weeks, before evacuating, and in that time the Germasns lost nearly 4-500 a/c (many to ground fire, but perhaps 200 to air combat ) . thats a big attrition rate. What the Poles could not do was interfere, or prevent the Germans from pasting their ground formations and installations from being worked over at will. in that sense the Germans held air superiority from the very beginning.

What the Poles needed to challenge that was a high performance fighter, more fighters (and pilots to fly them) and better AA defences. High performance fighters were a real problem. There was the P-50, but unlikley to be ready. there was the export version of the P-11, the P-24, but that did not offer a big increase in performance (but did increase firepower). there were foreign imports from the west, but availability was problematic, and Poland lacked the cash to buy enough aircraft. Obtaining supplies from Germany was a non-starter, Italian aircraft also lacked performance, that leaves the Russians, which politically were unacceptable.

If I were in charge of the Polish forces, with a magic wand, I would scrap or cancel all of the bomber forces in the PAF, which would amount to about 200 a/c. I would buy or buuild roughly another 100 fighter aircraft, and build roughly an additional 500 or so HAA and 1000 LAA (based on a rough estimate of equivalent costs), which I would fully motorise and distribute to the army. The Polish land forces were roughly the equivalent of 30 divs, so that should give each div an additional 50 AA pieces per 8000 men (ie per div). Thats 16-20 heavy guns and 30 light guns per div. I think ground based defences would give each Polish Div some ability to keep the monkey off its back as well as some valuable direct firepower capability that their ground formations urgently needed. I thin they would have derived greater benefit out of having a fighter element of 250, instead of 150 as they did. I dont think they achieved very much with their bomber groups. Just using rough correlations of force structure, increasing the fighter component to 250, should increase LW loss rates from air to about 350, and losses to ground fire by maybe 4-500 (Polish ground formations had virtually no dedicated AA). I dont think it beyond the realm of possibility to estimate German losses at 8-900 aircraft. if the allies had mounted a sustained and heavy air campaign from French bases, not worrying about losses of their own, I can see Gerany in a world of hurt at the end of all this. If the Russians had been pursuaded to join a collective security arrangement, and the Poles allowed them into their country 9not going to happen I know), I can see germany being defeated outright on the Polish plains

 

[tyrodtom]

Which was a huge improvement from German real earnings during 1933.

I suspect USA real earnings in 1938 were still below 1928 level as our economy performed poorly during FDR administration. American unemployment was still high during 1939 despite the massive naval construction program and a bunch of large public works programs.

If America earnings in 1938 were even near 1928 levels, that would be very good, Americas depression didn't start till 1929, it was booming in 1928.
You can't say the same for Germany in 1928.

 

[pattle]

The Polish had a number of fighter types on the drawing board in 1939, these included light weight designs similar to those developed by Italy and France, heavy fighters similar to the Beaufighter or Me110 and also single seat high performance fighters, there were also advanced bomber types under development. I was once shown a book with drawings, pictures and illustrations of these aircraft by a Polish friend and was rather surprised by the how advanced the Poles were. Of course just because the Poles had made drawings etc it doesn't mean these planes would have been any good.

 

[parsifal]

The Poles had a decent aero indutry, but limited funds. Designs are likley to be good, but unless you can finace them, arent worth worrying about. plus they need time, a longer time than the germans, to develop ebd build their air force and the types they would use to equip them.

Possible foreign order might be the Fokker D-21 or Fokker GI, though the latter was not ready. Possibly the Po631 instead

 

[Jabberwocky]

Polish Air Force has multiple options for fighter and bomber modernisation. I'll deal with indigenous fighters first.

The main issue for fighter production was the decision in 1933/1934 that the PAF would concentrate on the PZL.38 and PZL.39 for their future fighter force. At the time, this seemed at the time to offer them an affordable 'high-low' mix of technology and capabilities, but effectively left them without a modern fighter force.

The PZL.38 was the 'high' element: a twin engine heavy fighter/light bomber, with some construction elements borrowed from the PZL.37 bomber. Despite work commencing in 1934, the aircraft was a failure and only two prototypes were produced. Apart from the fact that it was a two seater, the choice of powerplant doomed it to failure: an air cooled V8 with around 400 hp per engine. Just two prototypes were built, mostly due to issues with the engines.

The PZL.39 was the 'low element' – a light fighter with the same engine. It too ended up being abandoned in 1938 after only a few prototypes were made. The prototypes barely made 250 mph, and the project was canned.

So, for an alternative time-line, I'd propose that at the end of 1933, the Polish decided to stick with a single monoplane fighter for their air force, instead of going with the dual PZL.38/39 route.

 

[Jabberwocky]

Alternate time line options for indigenous fighters:

Over and above the base PZL.11c, I see the following options:

Option one, least ambitious: PZL.11g

Poland attempted to modernised the PZL.11c in 1938, but unfortunately it was a case of way too little, way to late. The .11g put an 840 hp Mercury in a strengthened airframe. 100 were ordered, but only a few prototypes were completed prior to the invasion.

If the decision to upgrade the PZL.11g is made in 1936 (Mercury VIII is available from 1935 onwards), then the fighter could have easily become the mainstay of the Polish fighter force in 1939.

Outcome: If the .11g is developed an ordered ahead of time, the PAF gets a fighter that is really only marginally better than the .11c. The 11g was around 20 mph faster, had a 6000 ft higher ceiling and a slightly better armament that the base mode 11c, thanks to better LMGs streamlined into the wing.

Porducing the .11g is probably going to be of only marginal benefit against both LW fighters and bombers, so not much of an impact really. I don't envision an all PZL.11g equipped air force being more of an impact that an all PZL.11c force.

Option two, moderately ambitious: PZL.24

There was another Polish fighter in production at the time, the PZL.24. This was a partially reworked P.11 with new tail surfaces, cut-down engine cowling and better streamlining for the rear fuselage. The aircraft was flying by 1936, so there's plenty of time to get it into production.

There were multiple PZL.24 designs, most featuring a 900 hp Ghnome-Rhone 14K radial. Several designs had 4 LMGs in the wings, but there were also designs with 2 x 20 mm Oerlikons either under the wings in early designs or in the wings in later designs, so there is a big potential step up in armament.

Again, like the PZL.11g, if its PZL.24 is ordered in time, several hundred could have been produced in the 1936-1939 period, allowing it to become the

Outcome: Compared to the 11c, it offers a speed advantage of up to 30 mph, better range and better rate of climb. Compared to the PZL.11g, its about 10 mph faster.

The PZL.24 doesn't really bridge the gap to the 109E-1, E-3 or E-4, so I don't see it performing much better in fighter to fighter combat.

However, with either 4 LMGs or 2 20 mm cannon and the ability to catch bombers like the Do-17 and He-111 as they run away, it might make a bigger dent in the Luftwaffe's bomber fleet during the campaign. It might down more Luftwaffe bombers and transports, potentially having an impact in the French/British campaigns in 1940.

Option three, most ambitious: PZL.50

The PZL.50 is one of those aircraft that look right, but somehow don't quite match up to the expectations. Performance and manoeuvrability were lower than expectations, but still a step up on the existing fighters in Polish service.

Design work starts at the end of 1936, approval in 1937 and the first prototype isn't ready to fly until February 1939, mostly due to engine and landing gear supply issues.

The major problem was that work got started too late to get all the kinks out. The test flights had engine problems, cutting the best speed to 275 mph, about 16-18 mph lower than initial projections. The aircraft was reportedly nice to fly, but was sluggish in the controls and had some control and aerodynamics issues, resolved with a redesigned tail.

The ideal for Poland would be to start the project in 1934 instead of the PZL.38/39, test flights by either late 1936 or early 1937 and production deliveries commencing later in 1937. The Polish had ordered 300 Mercury VIIIs, so they intended to produce the PZL.50 in quantity. That way they can work out the kinks and have a decent indigenous fighter in service, in quantity, by November 1939.

Outcome: A modern, low-wing, stressed-skin monoplane, the PZL.50 offers a step up over the two other options. Even without hitting its 470 kph/292 mph projected top speed, it still offered an advantage of 40 mph over the P.11c, 30 mph over the P.11g and about 20 mph over the P.24.

Unfortunately, its still up to 55-65 mph slower than the Bf 109E-1/3/4 and 110C, so its probably not going to redress the imbalance in fighter-on-fighter combat.

However, with 2 x 20 mm and 2 x LMG projected armament I think it would take a much heavy toll on bombers than in the historical time line.

I'll get around the looking at the foreign import alternatives in the next day or so. Likely candidates would be the MS 406, Hawker Hurricane, Curtis Hawk 75 and the Fokker D.XXI

 

[davebender]

Not sure where you are getting your information.

Historically Germany tried hard to settle the Danzig border dispute by plebiscite. Multiple diplomatic proposals were made. Poland refused to seriously consider a diplomatic solution.

Poland has no chance to fight both Germany and Soviet Union to a standstill but that was their historical strategy. Unless they have a change in government and national strategy Polish military preparations will never be enough.

 

[Civettone]

Not sure where you are getting your information.

Historically Germany tried hard to settle the Danzig border dispute by plebiscite. Multiple diplomatic proposals were made. Poland refused to seriously consider a diplomatic solution.

Poland has no chance to fight both Germany and Soviet Union to a standstill but that was their historical strategy. Unless they have a change in government and national strategy Polish military preparations will never be enough.

In fact, Hitler often toyed with the idea of allying with Poland to fight the Soviets. It was only after Poland allied itself with the French, that Hitler gave up on the idea. Of course, the Poles were not to keen on the idea anyway, maybe because they saw it to their advantage that Germany and the SU would keep each other in balance.

Not sure where you get your economic data. By 1935 the German economy was booming.

Spreadsheet with GDP data used to be available from the below site:

GDP gives a distorted view. It merely shows that Germany was spending a lot of money. In fact, Germany was running out of foreign exchange and gold. Schacht said he would no longer support these policies and he was replaced. At the same time, Hitler responded with the autarchic driven 4-Year plan. That was far from a success. In the end, it was Stalin who saved Germany from imminent bankruptcy.
I suggest you read Tooze and Overy.

The Yak 3 is a small fighter designed around the most powerful V-12 engine the Russians had in production at the time. It was NOT an even smaller fighter designed around a 2nd rate engine. While later in timing and light for it's time period it weighed within a few hundred pounds of a Spitfire I.

Be careful to mix time frames. A light fighter in 1944 would not be the same as one in 1940. The Northrop F-5 is a lightweight fighter plane but weighs more than the P-47.

We have no idea how any of the these fighters would have fared in combat but the FIVE light French fighters were either totally outclassed or have little reliable flight test information and what does exist points to rather poor rates of climb even if the speed is in the ball park. A lot of the details don't seem to add up well.

None of the French fighters were light weight. They were in the same league as the Bf 109 or Spitfire. They may have been lighter, but were not light weight aircraft: they were powered by the most powerful engines available.

I guess a light fighter concept would mean that the engine is chosen for weight/power ratio, not the most powerful engine. In that sense, the Yak-3 is not a light fighter. It is merely a lightened version of their main Yak-1 fighter. The Roussel 30 is a better example: it was a smaller version of the Bloch MB.150 and powered by a lighter engine. It had an empty weight of 1,000 kg, half of the MB.152, and had a higher top speed. Of course, no one can be sure how it would have performed. Nor, the SAI.403 or Nakajima Ki-116. But, it is insufficient reason to discard the notion of light weight fighters. Post-war, they were succesful, e.g. the Folland Gnat.

Kris

 

[Shortround6]

None of the French fighters were light weight. They were in the same league as the Bf 109 or Spitfire. They may have been lighter, but were not light weight aircraft: they were powered by the most powerful engines available.

French had two classes of fighter, The MS 406 and D 520 class ( and derivatives) and their "light class"

Bloch 700, 690 hp G-R 14M

Caudron 714, 450 hp Renault

Caudron 760, 750hp Isotta-Fraschini

Caudron 770, 800hp Renault V-16

Potez 230, 690hp Hispanp X series engine, not Y series

Roussel 30, 690 hp G-R 14M

all were smaller and lighter than the MS 406 and D 520.

I guess a light fighter concept would mean that the engine is chosen for weight/power ratio, not the most powerful engine. In that sense, the Yak-3 is not a light fighter. It is merely a lightened version of their main Yak-1 fighter. The Roussel 30 is a better example: it was a smaller version of the Bloch MB.150 and powered by a lighter engine. It had an empty weight of 1,000 kg, half of the MB.152, and had a higher top speed. Of course, no one can be sure how it would have performed. Nor, the SAI.403 or Nakajima Ki-116. But, it is insufficient reason to discard the notion of light weight fighters. Post-war, they were succesful, e.g. the Folland Gnat

Some of the Post war "light fighters" were successful because of the very rapid advancement in Jet engine technology. Engine in the Gnat gave about 80% of the thrust of the one in an F-86 but weighed about 1/3 to 1/2 as much. The J85s used in teh F-5 Fredom fighter weigh about 1/2 as much as the engine in the Gnat. The piston engine sin WW II showed no such difference in power to weight and in fact the smaller (450-800hp) engines usually had slightly worse power to weight ratios than the bigger (1000-1200Hp) engines at the beginning of the war.

 

[davebender]

Assumption.
Polish government aligns with anti-communist nations as they should have done.


1926. Gebauer mini gun approved for use by Hungary air force.
…..7.92mm Mauser. 500 round belt feed.
…..1,500 rpm
…..Powered by aircraft engine. This also ensured synchronization through prop.

March 1934.
Development work begins on Me-109 fighter aircraft.

29 May 1935.
Me-109 prototype first flight.

October 1935. DB600 engine approved for German mass production.
…..Genshagen plant designed to produce 220 V12 engines per month.
…..Daimler-Benz management wanted to produce fuel injected DB601. RLM forced production of carbureted DB600 instead.
…..RLM cut funding from RM 50 million to RM 20 million. Not terribly large even by mid 1930s standards.

Fall 1935.
Poland can afford RM 20 million for a Genshagen size engine plant.
…..Will produce fuel injected DB601 from beginning just as Daimler-Benz preferred.
…..Surplus engines will be sold to Hungary for use in He-112B manufactured by Manfred Weiss. Foreign currency earnings are a good thing.

1936. Luftwaffe fighter competition.
…..Ar-80.
…..Fw-159.
…..He-112.
…..Me-109.
Me-109 won the competition and it's dirt cheap to mass produce. Poland does not need to look further. DB601 powered Me-109 will be produced in Poland.

Poland will also market Me-109 to friendly nations such as Norway, Sweden, Finland and Spain. Foreign currency earnings are a good thing.

Polish Me-109 will have a pair of cowl mounted Gebauer mini guns chambered for 7.92mm Mauser cartridge.

Historically Gebauer made a larger version of their mini gun chambered for 12.7mm Fiat-Safat cartridge. Poland will contract for a version chambered for Mauser 20mm x 82mm cartridge (i.e. same as MG151/20). If Gebauer cannot produce an acceptable hub cannon then Poland will choose a different weapon such as Madsen 20mm aircraft cannon.

 

[parsifal]

Saying that Hitler only decided to invade Poland after Poland sided with france, is the same warped logic as Hitler used. Poland had a non-aggression pact with Germany dating back to 1934, and before that there was the treaty of Locarno. the Poles had already demonstrated their good intentions towards Germany. Germany betrayed them, simple as that. As late as 1938, the Germans were professing their friendship towards the Poles, but at the same time making preprations for war, though the final decision to move came later, which is your entire casus belli.

All good and noble, but the world was already witnessing how the germans treated their "friends". That hitler could not be trusted was being demonstrated by event after event, culminating in the dismemberment of Czechoslovakia, and then finally the Czech rump. As those events unfolded, the Poles knew they could not trust the germans, and the germans were not genuine in their offers of friendship. Nearly every freedom loving nation in the world was realizing that at that time.

These statements of mine are not just my own, they were established at nuremberg after the war and were a precursor to being able to try the German leadership as war criminals. So I am conscious of your motivations here. Re-write history as to who is the aggressor nation, and you can establish that Hitler and the rest of his cronies were not war criminals, and disprove Germany's war guilt. sorry guys, not buying it, and it exposes you people for what you really are.

 

[bobbysocks]

---

how many times did hitler say something to the effect..."if you just let me have this ( land ) i will be happy and assure you i have no further aspirations towards any other land? the sarrland, the rhineland, austria, sudatenland, east prussia....

 

[oldcrowcv63]

To Be or Not to Be - Mel Brooks as an actor imitating Hitler -

I Want Peace

"I don't want war.
All I want is peace. Peace.
Peace!
A little piece of Poland
A little piece of France
A little piece of Portugal
And Austria perchance
A little slice of Turkey
And all that that entails
Und then a piece of England Scotland
lreland and Wales
A little nip of Norway
A little spot of Greece
A little hunk of Hungary
Oh what a lovely feast
A little bite of Belgium
And now for some dessert
Armenia Albania
And Russia wouldn't hurt"

 

[davebender]

6 May 1935. P-36 prototype first flight.
1937. P-36 wins USAAC fighter aircraft competition.

P-36 was dirt cheap ($23,000 each) and it just won the 1937 U.S. fighter competition. There's no reason Poland couldn't purchase some aircraft followed by license production. Just replace the American machineguns with a pair of Madsen 20mm aircraft cannon.

 

[Tante Ju]

Saying that Hitler only decided to invade Poland after Poland sided with france, is the same warped logic as Hitler used. Poland had a non-aggression pact with Germany dating back to 1934, and before that there was the treaty of Locarno. the Poles had already demonstrated their good intentions towards Germany. Germany betrayed them, simple as that. As late as 1938, the Germans were professing their friendship towards the Poles, but at the same time making preprations for war, though the final decision to move came later, which is your entire casus belli.

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