Potential China military base in Solomons
- Thread starter Admiral Beez
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SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
Emperor Eleven definitely knows how to play the long game. Tsar Putler the First, of the Hermit Tsardom, could learn a thing or two.
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Admiral Beez
Major
Thing is, the chairman of China is still a servant of the politburo. XI doesn't need to rush China to the promised land, his job is to make the usually incremental, sometimes reasonably monumental changes to increase China's prestige and power before he quits/dies. XI's motivation isn't really about getting into the history books. Putin is a thief and a strongman thug, filled with grievance and resentment, answerable to no one, who personally wants to see Russia regain its Cold War influence before we dies. He knows that Russian men usually don't live into their 70s, and even a claimed teetotaller as the 69 year old Putin will be lucky to make it to 75. My guess is he's dead from seemingly natural causes, without achieving any of his 2022+ imperialist goals before the end of 2025.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
Just to say, the moves Xi has made over the last couple of years to consolidate his power -- in particular removing term limits on his own office -- bespeak something similar to what Putin did in a more-awkward manner by trading posts with Medvedev in the Oughts while retaining puppeteering power.
The difference is that Xi isn't putting on a constitutional dog-and-pony show, but simply extending his own stay in office by his own fiat, rubber-stamped by people whose tenure in office is controlled by ... you guessed it, Xi. I believe that says something about the actual power he wields in their system, that he doesn't have to play to niceties.
I won't pretend to have any expertise in Asian politics but let me share a few thoughts.
1. A base in the Solomons that would allow Chinese aircraft to strike Australia is a base in the Solomans that can be struck by Australian aircraft and missiles, both land and sea-based. That base is a much more concentrated target than the continent of Australia. Much easier to take out in a single strike as it sits, unmoveable, while the Royal Australian Navy's new, nuclear-powered submarines sneak up on it.
2. A base in the Solomans is a strategic threat to India's ability to control the Malacca straits. New Delhi won't like having Chinese interference in those waters. India also has missiles able to reach there, some of them with nuclear warheads.
3, China's success rate in establishing dominance over ports and other major facilities in impoverished Asian and African countries isn't that great. Recently a small number of countries caught up in the Chinese debt traps have experienced abrupt changes of government, usually violent, with the new leadership showing China the door. That could be potentially significant in the Solomans where the leader of one of the strongest provinces is in heated opposition to the national government. It is definitely a "watch this space" situation.
4. China is experiencing massive internal problems, a perfect storm with the failure of the zero-tolerance policy to stop covid, multiple shocks to their economy with electrical power shortages (no Australian or Indonesian coal), the collapse of the house of cards that was their housing industry, a major shipping backlog (exacerbated by their covid lock-downs), a barely used high-speed train network that is draining billions of yuan from the government coffers, and a shrinking population with fewer young people to move up and provide for their retiring population. All controlled by a government so riddled with corruption that it couldn't deal with these problems seriously even if it wanted to.
I am not all that worried about China. Xi and his wolf-warriors talk a tough game, but I don't think the infrastructure is there to back it up.
1. A base in the Solomons that would allow Chinese aircraft to strike Australia is a base in the Solomans that can be struck by Australian aircraft and missiles, both land and sea-based. That base is a much more concentrated target than the continent of Australia. Much easier to take out in a single strike as it sits, unmoveable, while the Royal Australian Navy's new, nuclear-powered submarines sneak up on it.
2. A base in the Solomans is a strategic threat to India's ability to control the Malacca straits. New Delhi won't like having Chinese interference in those waters. India also has missiles able to reach there, some of them with nuclear warheads.
3, China's success rate in establishing dominance over ports and other major facilities in impoverished Asian and African countries isn't that great. Recently a small number of countries caught up in the Chinese debt traps have experienced abrupt changes of government, usually violent, with the new leadership showing China the door. That could be potentially significant in the Solomans where the leader of one of the strongest provinces is in heated opposition to the national government. It is definitely a "watch this space" situation.
4. China is experiencing massive internal problems, a perfect storm with the failure of the zero-tolerance policy to stop covid, multiple shocks to their economy with electrical power shortages (no Australian or Indonesian coal), the collapse of the house of cards that was their housing industry, a major shipping backlog (exacerbated by their covid lock-downs), a barely used high-speed train network that is draining billions of yuan from the government coffers, and a shrinking population with fewer young people to move up and provide for their retiring population. All controlled by a government so riddled with corruption that it couldn't deal with these problems seriously even if it wanted to.
I am not all that worried about China. Xi and his wolf-warriors talk a tough game, but I don't think the infrastructure is there to back it up.
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
Hope you're right!
Hell, so do I.
GreenKnight121
Senior Airman
- 734
- Mar 16, 2014
You ARE aware that the Solomons are east of New Guinea?
Some 3,500 miles east of the Malacca Straits?
Look at this... the Malacca Straits are at the left where the word Singapore appears... the Solomon Islands are the islands at the right, forming the northeast border of the Solomon Sea:
Are you suggesting that the Chinese couldn't use a base in the Solomans to launch seaborn, particularly submarine, attacks on shipping in the Malacca Straights because they aren't particularly close? U.S., British, Japanese etc., fleets traveled extreme distances to engage in combat during WWII. The distance between Tokyo and Honolulu is over 3,500 miles, yet Japan sent a fleet out to attack Pearl Harbor, America retaliated with a fleet from Pearl Harbor to bomb Tokyo, and many American submarines, based in Pearl Harbor, spent time raiding Japanese shipping in their home waters.
If China's bases in and west of Hainan are blocked by their unfriendly neighbors, torpedo and missile armed raiders can still sortie out from the Solomans and threaten shipping in the straits. Also, let's not forget their long-ranged bombers carrying cruise missiles.
China has been making in-roads into the Pacific for years, by approaching smaller Pacific nations for access to fishing rights, mainly. Tonga has to a degree gotten into bed with China in purchasing an MA-60 to go with Harbin Y-12 in service with Real Tonga, but to what degree that gives China access to is not known. The MA-60 caused a bit of a stoush with local/Pacific regulators, most of which is done through the New Zealand CAA, which emphatically stated the aircraft was not licenced to operate in New Zealand controlled airspace.
My family has ties to the Cook Islands and the Chinese have been knocking on Rarotonga's doors for years to get access to fishing, as the size of the Cooks archipelago is huge, even though the number of islands isn't; they are very far away from each other. The Chinese government funded the construction of a new police station and court house in Avarua, the main centre of Raro, but locals complain that both buildings leak when it rains, which is often! The Raro government has made it clear it doesn't want Chinese fishing boats in Cook Islands waters. They are often caught in New Zealand waters though, the RNZAF famously sinking one with an A-4K when we had such things!
My family has ties to the Cook Islands and the Chinese have been knocking on Rarotonga's doors for years to get access to fishing, as the size of the Cooks archipelago is huge, even though the number of islands isn't; they are very far away from each other. The Chinese government funded the construction of a new police station and court house in Avarua, the main centre of Raro, but locals complain that both buildings leak when it rains, which is often! The Raro government has made it clear it doesn't want Chinese fishing boats in Cook Islands waters. They are often caught in New Zealand waters though, the RNZAF famously sinking one with an A-4K when we had such things!
Wildcat
Major
Anything is possible, however, I doubt they would be able to mount such an attack undetected. See JORN.
Jindalee Operational Radar Network - Wikipedia
GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
The Solomons are to the right, out of Longreach's coverage.
I'm sure that would have to be corrected, of course, if the Chinese manage to get a base out there.
Wildcat
Major
Yes, but to get from the Solomons to the Malaccan Straits, as in Newst's scenario, the Chinese would have to pass through JORN's coverage. Plus if the Chinese did establish a Naval base in the Solomons, I'm pretty sure RAAF P-8's plus the RAN will be operating extensively off the Australian East Coast.
'We've seen this movie before': US politicians worry Solomon Islands deal could go the way of the South China Sea
Concern over Solomon Islands' security pact with China is mounting in the US Congress, with politicians on both sides expressing alarm over the deal.
www.abc.net.au
Solomon Islands PM Manasseh Sogavare blasts Australia over criticism of China security deal
The Solomon Islands Prime Minister delivers a withering verbal assault on Australia, mocking the federal government's complaints about the secrecy surrounding the Pacific Island country's security pact with China.
www.abc.net.au
Thumpalumpacus
Major
I found your entire post interesting, but am especially curious about this point. Do you have any further reading you could suggest so that I could get more insight? I'm aware of the dissatisfaction over Covid zero-tolerance, but was unaware about coal shortages and housing issues and would like to learn more.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
Agreed, the artificial islands China has been building in the South China Sea are a much more direct threat (if still only nominal) to Indian interests. And I don't think India really controls the Malacca Straits anyway.
Wildcat
Major
For the housing market issues google Evergrande. As for coal shortages, China banned the importation of Australian coal as part of its punishments dished out against our Government. This basically led to a coal shortage which resulted in factories coming to a halt and power stations unable to produce power - in wintertime no less. There's plenty of info out there on news sites.
Thumpalumpacus
Major
I'll google that, thanks.
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