Technical developments of a Luftwaffe vs. VVS only war

[wiking85]

Assuming a scenario were the European Axis fought the Soviets alone, say something like Churchill dying pre-war or early on before be becomes PM so Halifax cuts a deal after the Fall of France. So Germany is at peace with everyone and able to trade with the world, plus of course extract resources from the occupied nations of continental Europe and their colonies, when launching Barbarossa. Without Britain in the war the Soviets are more suspicious of the German build up so are better prepared for the invasion when it comes, which offsets some of the gains the Germans have from not fighting the BoB, Blitz, or in the Balkans/Mediterranean. Britain isn't ready for war in 1941, but finds itself at war with Japan in 1942 after they are attacked, along with the US; Hitler doesn't join that war, leaving the Allies to fight their parallel war with the Japanese, while Germany fights the USSR; Stalin does get humanitarian aid (food and supplies that aren't weapons) and the ability to cash and carry by the US and UK, while Iran is still invaded by the British in July 1941, so that supply route is open to the Soviets.

Basically Germany has a free hand against Stalin for the course of the war. Barbarossa still bogs down short of Moscow. Leningrad holds out. How does technology evolve in Europe for the air war in the East? The He177 is still screwed up, the fight is primarily at lower altitudes, and Germany is not really restricted in purchasing raw materials abroad. Do we see earlier jets due to Germany being able to have the raw materials to make the Jumo 004A? Do we see an early/late/on time R4M rocket? What do the Soviets do differently?

 

[Juha]

Germany, no jets. Why to bother with vacuum cleaners when fighting from primitive frontline a/fs? No DB 605ASs but maybe more use of MW50. More Hs 129s. Some sort of long-range bomber to attack Soviet factories beyond Ural.
VVS Some of the high-flying MiG protos to production to counter German high-flying bombers and recon planes

 

[davebender]

What do you mean by "alone"?

If Soviets receive no diplomatic, economic or military assistance of any type they most likely would be destroyed in a single campaign season.

 

[wiking85]

What do you mean by "alone"?

If Soviets receive no diplomatic, economic or military assistance of any type they most likely would be destroyed in a single campaign season.

I specify they are given free humanitarian aid and the ability to cash and carry (IIRC they had $2.6 Billion in foreign exchange). Greater Soviet preparations for Barbarossa keep them from being destroyed in 1941.

 

[Koopernic]

Jumo 211J engined Me 109G, more powerful down low than the DB605.
Greater Soviet Use of their long range bombers attempting a
maritime war in Norway's Coast.
Hs 129 gets a decent engine.
Germans don't have a fuel shortage or pilot shortage.
The Ju 252 get into production and makes a difference at Stalingrad.
The Ju 290 is used as a transport not maritime recon and also helps german supply logistics.
There are a couple of thousand 8.8cm guns extra.

The soviets need to develop high altitude aircraft, MiG 3 remains in production.

The He 177 is crap until 1944 but it probably does get proper hangers, tools etc and perform better.

 

[wiking85]

Did the Jumo 211J have the performance a fighter needed? Also would the DB605 have had as many issues with access to quality lubricants and materials? Plus wouldn't its supercharger be more tuned for lower altitudes? What was a decent hs129 engine option by 1941-42? Also wouldn't the Jumo 222 be alright in 1943 if it had access to proper materials? Apparently Milch put it in the production schedule for 1944 and probably could have started in 1943 if not for the strategic bombing especially of the Dessau facility.

 

[Shortround6]

Did the Jumo 211J have the performance a fighter needed?

The Jumo 211J used an air to air intercooler, I don't know if the extra power was worth the extra drag on a fighter plane.

Also would the DB605 have had as many issues with access to quality lubricants and materials? Plus wouldn't its supercharger be more tuned for lower altitudes?

Possible, it is an unknown, They could have played with supercharger gear ratio/s for better power down low.

What was a decent hs129 engine option by 1941-42?

Italian Isotta Fraschini engines? Nothing else fits unless you redesign the whole airplane.

Also wouldn't the Jumo 222 be alright in 1943 if it had access to proper materials? Apparently Milch put it in the production schedule for 1944 and probably could have started in 1943 if not for the strategic bombing especially of the Dessau facility.

Another unkown, Nobody seems to know what happened the bulk of the 289 engines that were built and test engines doesn't stand up too well. P W went through about 50 engines to get the R-4360 engine certified for production and that is dozens more than was required for the R-2800. A few prototypes waited months for engines in 1944/45 and never got them. If the engines existed in flyable form you could have transported them across Germany in an oxcart in that amount of time.

 

[davebender]

How is that possible?

Holodomor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Historically Soviets allowed millions to starve in order to pay for construction of massive military-industrial complex during 1930s. 2.4 to 7.5 million people died in Ukraine alone. Double that figure (to make Soviet army even better equipped) and 1930s Ukraine will erupt into open rebellion.

 

[wiking85]

Another unkown, Nobody seems to know what happened the bulk of the 289 engines that were built and test engines doesn't stand up too well. P W went through about 50 engines to get the R-4360 engine certified for production and that is dozens more than was required for the R-2800. A few prototypes waited months for engines in 1944/45 and never got them. If the engines existed in flyable form you could have transported them across Germany in an oxcart in that amount of time.

But the R-4360 didn't go through the radical changes that the Jumo 222 did. It became several different engines over its life, which explains the large number of prototype/preproduction versions. But it certainly is an unknown and had a lot of issues historically. The 1944/45 time frame delays were the result of strategic bombing wrecking transport and the development facility where they were to be built, so they couldn't transport them, source parts, or make them at their development facility:
Junkers Jumo 222 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

By this point it appeared that the problems were finally being worked out, but bombing of the Junkers Motorenwerke's headquarters factories in Dessau made production almost impossible

 

[wiking85]

How is that possible?

Holodomor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Historically Soviets allowed millions to starve in order to pay for construction of massive military-industrial complex during 1930s. 2.4 to 7.5 million people died in Ukraine alone. Double that figure (to make Soviet army even better equipped) and 1930s Ukraine will erupt into open rebellion.

I meant in the sense of mobilization; Stalin only just allowed a few hundred thousand men to secretly mobilize in the months leading up to the invasion.
Operation Barbarossa - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Stalin acknowledged the possibility of an attack in general and therefore made significant preparations, but decided not to run the risk of provoking Hitler.[73]

The lack of mobilization killed them, as they weren't prepared to fight and many soldiers were scooped up on their way to their units before they could organize to fight.

Google Translate

Since the Soviet command came from the offensive strategy of a future war, it does not pay due attention to the development of defensive operations. Zhukov recalled: "Education troops defensive operations, counter-battles, retrograde actions rarely go tactical framework. I do not know of a single operational-strategic activities, which would have been played or worked in major operational and strategic scale, where would the defense opposed the deep penetration of large armored groups, interacting with large air forces, as well as a consequence of our staffs and commanders of operational scale before the war were not trained to conduct effective defense operational-strategic scale, not to mention the fact that such defensive operations were not developed in the headquarters of the border districts and the General Staff as a possible option. " [26]

 

[kool kitty89]

The He177 is still screwed up, the fight is primarily at lower altitudes, and Germany is not really restricted in purchasing raw materials abroad. Do we see earlier jets due to Germany being able to have the raw materials to make the Jumo 004A? Do we see an early/late/on time R4M rocket? What do the Soviets do differently?

You also have Udet likely not killing himself and, while he certainly pressed his dive bombing concept a bit too hard and broadly (He 177's problems included), he was still more sensible and more military minded than political/self-interested than most of his contemporaries, so having him around would have been significant.

Cannon pods tended to be more effective than rockets for ground attack purposes, though the ability to fit HEAT warheads on R4Ms (and their ability to be mounted in greater numbers with much less drag than tube/rail mounted counterparts) is significant. (the railess HVAR being fielded by the US by late war is a compelling example as well)


The 004A was not just limited by stainless steel or nickel and chromium availability, but the much more exotic alloys used in its construction. I'm not sure how much supplies of Molybdenum and Cobalt would be affected in this scenario, but I suppose with the lack of divided resources, they'd still be able to produce many more than the 100 004A's actually ordered, buying more time to work though the vibration problems resulting from the redesign. (among other refinements, perhaps closer to the 004D than the existing 004B)

There's all sorts of other hypotheticals on jet engine and aircraft development from BMW/Bramo to Heinkel, etc, etc, but I'll leave it at that for now. (though it's noteworthy that Ohain's early turbojets all focused on using fairly standard alloys -they DID use a lot of Krupp stainless steel, but it was of the fairly common types in mass production, and likely used substantially LESS chromium and nickel than the likes of front line piston engines of 1939/40)

Turbochargers might be more seriously considered if nothing else.

Germany, no jets. Why to bother with vacuum cleaners when fighting from primitive frontline a/fs? No DB 605ASs but maybe more use of MW50. More Hs 129s. Some sort of long-range bomber to attack Soviet factories beyond Ural.
VVS Some of the high-flying MiG protos to production to counter German high-flying bombers and recon planes

Up-engined Hs 129s would be good too. (I still like the potential of the Fw 187 airframe in the low-alt fighter and ground-attack role though)

Perhaps a more low-alt tuned 605 in general, like the 601Aa had been, or just more 601Es. (or 601Es with MW/50)

Jumo 211J engined Me 109G, more powerful down low than the DB605.
Greater Soviet Use of their long range bombers attempting a maritime war in Norway's Coast.

Seems like DB's would be better low-alt tuned and displacing the Jumo's advantages (plus already suited to engine mounted cannon), as above perhaps just MW/50 adapted to the 601E, and/or other modifications.

The soviets need to develop high altitude aircraft, MiG 3 remains in production.

Possibly gets a better armament too, and more serious attention to bug fixes. Maybe a twin engine interceptor could be considered as well? (be it AM35 or VK10x based) Though that kind of goes against their 'quantity over quality' strategies used historically. (so larger numbers of smaller, less refined, less effective machines seems more likely)

The He 177 is crap until 1944 but it probably does get proper hangers, tools etc and perform better.

Smoother development of the Jumo 222 might help some? (still a poor choice given the far more practical 4-engine alternatives ... or DB-603 or Jumo 222 on Do 217)

Jumo 213 development may also have accelerated.

Also would the DB605 have had as many issues with access to quality lubricants and materials?

As above, the DB 601 itself may have been developed instead, though aside from that they may have made the 605 much closer to the 601 including the use of much more reliable roller bearings.

What was a decent hs129 engine option by 1941-42?

Bramo 323 or (better) Gnome Rhone 14N, though increased fuel capacity would be necessary as well. The smaller diameter, better fuel consumption, and higher max continuous power ratings of the latter would make it more attractive. Other than that, using a push/pull arrangement with 4x AS410/411 engines might be useful and allow somewhat better visibility but added complexity for engine management by the pilot.

Better anti-tank cannons would be really useful as well. Higher velocity 37 mm cannon would be fairly useful short of going larger caliber, and the API blowback mechanism of the MGFF and MK-108 was hardly only useful for low velocity weapons while retaining advantages of being relatively light and having smoother recoil than most other weapons of a given size/power. (main disadvantage being lack of synchronization) Or perhaps even higher velocity 30 mm being focused on with improved AP ammunition. (velocity and sectional density are far more important than caliber or projectile mass -plus aerodynamic shape for energy retention)

For that matter, necking DOWN ammunition and barrels of existing weapons may have been attractive. (the MG 151 lost significant armor penetration going from 15 to 20 mm due to velocity and reduced powder charge, but the opposite would tend to be true when shrinking the caliber -so long as pressures remain within tolerance, else requiring more extensive redesigns)

Aside from that, there's simply velocity and aerodynamic shaping alone. Ignore sectional density and go for small, light, streamlined rounds with very little metal beyond the penetrator core. That method even makes low velocity large caliber guns like the Vickers S (per Little John) and potentially the likes of the American M4 37 mm cannon much more useful, perhaps MK-108 and BK-37 as well. (though the latter was already a more powerful round, if a relatively heavy weapon -and lacking the recoil smoothing of API-blowback)

 

[Shortround6]

But the R-4360 didn't go through the radical changes that the Jumo 222 did. It became several different engines over its life, which explains the large number of prototype/preproduction versions. But it certainly is an unknown and had a lot of issues historically. The 1944/45 time frame delays were the result of strategic bombing wrecking transport and the development facility where they were to be built, so they couldn't transport them, source parts, or make them at their development facility:
Junkers Jumo 222 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

History is full of engines who's troubles were just worked out when they were canceled for "other" reasons. SO far in English nobody is saying how many of which versions were built, just the total. The transportation issue seems to be a bit of blind. I repeat, they could have moved them by oxcart in the months one or two of the prototypes were waiting for them. Granted the Jumo 222 may not have had the transport priority that other materials had but they were still moving submarine hull sections and Tiger and Panther tanks by rail, slowly and with delays but it wasn't taking weeks/months in transit. They were moving other aircraft engines, tank engines, submarine engines, etc.

As far as test engines go, they could have built 50 Jumo 222s of each different type and still had engines left over. Something doesn't smell right there either.

 

[gjs238]

Assuming a scenario were the European Axis fought the Soviets alone, say something like Churchill dying pre-war or early on before be becomes PM so Halifax cuts a deal after the Fall of France. So Germany is at peace with everyone and able to trade with the world, plus of course extract resources from the occupied nations of continental Europe and their colonies, when launching Barbarossa. Without Britain in the war the Soviets are more suspicious of the German build up so are better prepared for the invasion when it comes, which offsets some of the gains the Germans have from not fighting the BoB, Blitz, or in the Balkans/Mediterranean. Britain isn't ready for war in 1941, but finds itself at war with Japan in 1942 after they are attacked, along with the US; Hitler doesn't join that war, leaving the Allies to fight their parallel war with the Japanese, while Germany fights the USSR; Stalin does get humanitarian aid (food and supplies that aren't weapons) and the ability to cash and carry by the US and UK, while Iran is still invaded by the British in July 1941, so that supply route is open to the Soviets.

Basically Germany has a free hand against Stalin for the course of the war. Barbarossa still bogs down short of Moscow. Leningrad holds out. How does technology evolve in Europe for the air war in the East? The He177 is still screwed up, the fight is primarily at lower altitudes, and Germany is not really restricted in purchasing raw materials abroad. Do we see earlier jets due to Germany being able to have the raw materials to make the Jumo 004A? Do we see an early/late/on time R4M rocket? What do the Soviets do differently?

Do the Italian escapades occur as historically happened?
Do they go unchallenged by the British?
Does Germany bail out the Italians as historically happened?

 

[wiking85]

Do the Italian escapades occur as historically happened?
Do they go unchallenged by the British?
Does Germany bail out the Italians as historically happened?

Probably not if they think the Brits are going to get at them. Greece doesn't happen, obviously Egypt doesn't, but Yugoslavia does because Germany is involved. In fact in this situation the Italians contribute a larger, better equipped force to the East.

 

[gjs238]

And what happens in Finland?

 

[wiking85]

And what happens in Finland?

They join in just like historically.

 

[kool kitty89]

As far as test engines go, they could have built 50 Jumo 222s of each different type and still had engines left over. Something doesn't smell right there either.

Indeed, the DB 603 would be the better bets to focus on, that along with continued Jumo 211 and 601 development and perhaps a less troublesome 605. (perhaps smoother development of the 213? or easier gearing up for mass production)

And what happens in Finland?

Aside from support from Germany, might they have continued to trade with the UK and US, etc like they had in the Winter War?

With there being no BoB, there may have been less interest from Britain for buying up American export aircraft, and with the Finns' liking of the Buffalo, might they have had greater interest in taking on some of the B-339 orders?

 

[parsifal]

Regardless if the shooting war between Britain and Germany comes to an end because Churchill is dead, there is not a great deal of difference in the outcome. Despite the false premise on which this scenario is based, ie that Churchill was responsible for the continuation of the war after the fall of France, certain things dont change. Britains policy for at least 400 years, regardless of the quality of its leadership, has remained remarkably constant in that time....no single nation on the continent be allowed to dominate the continent. For that reason, Britain has always backed to the second most powerful nation on the continent.

In the scenario of a Britain at peace with Germany, (and presumably the other German lackeys like Italy), Britain will simply be free of Uboats and other constraints. presumably Japan will not go to war in this scenario, so massive aid via Vladivostock, and from the south is possible, in which Germany can do nothing because she is at peace with Britain. From July the Americans can join this push. Lend Lease to USSR (presumably both British and US) will be 10-20 times what it was historically in 1941. The latest and best a/c, unlimited amounts of food, transport, raw materials.....it will be all over by the end of 1942 in that scenario. Germany cannot raise additional forces, because the implicit threat from a continuing existence of the British, now free of a Uboat menace will require additional coast garrisons throughout Europe.

A return to normal trade conditions for Germany would never be accepted, except if the prewar demands like return of Polish security and a relinquishing of the occupation of western europe was to occur. Even with a truce of sorts in place, it was never even considered by the most rabid of the Germanophile members of the Govt to relax the Control commission Activities and a return to free trade for Germany. That had not been fully available to Germany since Munich. If it were Britain would effectively have surrendered, and that was never going to happen, even under Halifax. People should take the time to actually read what Halifax was prepared to do, before making such wild assumptions in their scenario constructs.

Halifax was a member of the appeasement group, and recently declassified documents of the British govt, show that in 1939, shortly after the outbreak of war Halifax helped with the travel arrangements of John Lonsdale Bryans, who believed he could bring down Hitler by making contact with prominent anti-Nazi Germans including Ulrich von Hassell, the former German ambassador in Rome. Initially Lonsdale Bryans thought he could drum up support for an anti-Nazi coup in Germany. But he subsequently changed tactic and tried to contact Adolf Hitler in a bid to negotiate a peace. These discussion went nowhere of course,m but Halifaxs association with the appeasement lobby meant that even if Churchill had not been on the scene, Halifax was most unlikely to garner the support of parliament to form govt after Chamberlain, another member of the appeasement group, so patently lost support. Had Halifax machinations with Bryans, which were known and fully documneted in the Secret Service file being kept on him and Halifax was to be released. This would have destroyed Halifax if he had any notions of making a grab for power. He knew the administration knew about his little jaunts with the enemy,m and that they were prepared to use them against him if he tried anything. For that reason, the so called halifax option was a complete non-starter.

In the lead up to the fall of the Chamberlain administration, it was becoming apparent that within the government itself there was failing support for the appeaement group. 81 abstentions, and on the 8th May despite a valiant attempt by Churchill to save his boss it was clear, his days were numbered. In desperation Chamberlain called a meeting with Churchill, Halifax, Chamberlain and the opposition leaders Attlee and Greenwood in attendance. The opposition was asked if it would support some form of unity govt. It becomes a little murky as to details after this, but the general consensus is that they came back with the reply that they would support a unity govt for the duration, but the tories had to rid themselves of the appeasement dominance. That meant that both Halifax and Chamberlain, along with other lesser fish, had to go. Halifax had been offered the prime ministership, but turned it down, knowing that he too could not gurantee the support of his own part or the opposition. British resistance was working independant of Churchill, though Churchill became the perfect man for the job of channlling and focussing that oppisitiion in the months and years that followed. There was never the slightest possibility of Halifax getting the job and Churchill was irrelevant to that outcome. If it hadnt been Churchill, it would have been another anti-German who took on the job, never was it a possibility of Halifax, or any appeasement oriented politician getting the leadership job after Poland. Ironically, it might have been possible, only if the allies were winning from Poland on. in a way, hitlers runaway success ensured the British would never surrender, whilst Hitler was on the scene.

There will be little difference to the outcome, except that the whole of Europe will be under Soviet control by 1945, unless the western allies respond, which they would do. They would never have allowed either germany or the USSR a free dominating hand in western Europe

 

[Juha]

...Germans don't have a fuel shortage or pilot shortage...

Why not, historically they had bad fuel problems during operation Blau (Summer 42) and limited supply of C3 put some limitations onthe use 190s during the Kursk operations (July - August 1943). Especially the first, Panzer Divs stopped for days because of lack of fuel had significant impact to outcome. Logistics weren't Heer's strongest point.

 

[kool kitty89]

There will be little difference to the outcome, except that the whole of Europe will be under Soviet control by 1945, unless the western allies respond, which they would do. They would never have allowed either germany or the USSR a free dominating hand in western Europe

Why not, historically they had bad fuel problems during operation Blau (Summer 42) and limited supply of C3 put some limitations onthe use 190s during the Kursk operations (July - August 1943). Especially the first, Panzer Divs stopped for days because of lack of fuel had significant impact to outcome. Logistics weren't Heer's strongest point.

These, both of these. So long as Hitler (and a number of other Nazi higherups) were in control, there'd be no consistent, potent, practical military planning, goals, or contingency arrangements. Aside from horrible logistics management, there was the total lack of planning for digging in and holding ground with potent defensive capabilities if (ie WHEN) further expansion was impractical. Even IF they somehow managed to Blitz Russia all the way back to the Urals, if the Allies still sided with Russia (if for not other reason than to prevent a unified European Empire state), supplies and support could be coming in from the Far East and Pacific. (then again, the more competent generals making up a hypothetical Military-run deposed-Nazi Germany might have favored definitively dealing with the British threat before ever seriously considering invading Russia)

That aside from possible changes in alignment in the PTO, including things like the Germans breaking their Alliance with Japan or even declaring war.


But then again, if the Nazi government was deposed (at some point -timing would affect things greatly) would the new government (particularly if one resulting from a military coup) consider concession/compromise, relinquishing occupied territory in negotiations with the allies (or perhaps even aim at re-establishing the WWI boarders)?