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No, the defense of island strongholds would depend on fast carrier forces to attack the invading armada.
Of course not, with their carrier forces intact and ours gone, they would be able to interdict supplies to Australia, take New Guinea, neutralize Hawaii, and push our forward bases back to California. A few strategically placed bombs on the Gatun Locks would make interocean transfers into lengthy hazardous endeavors. This makes submarine ops against the Empire's shipping problematical, and where you going to launch your B29s from now? With the Japanese in Dutch Harbor, Alaska is out, and China was always a shaky proposition, especially if the Japanese get themselves established on the Indian subcontinent.
With their empire secure, and their supplies of raw materials unthreatened, the Japanese could concentrate on producing the next generation of ships and aircraft to make our fight back even more of a challenge.
Perhaps, with Yamamoto still alive, they might even recognize the need for the philosophical change from a war of blitzkrieg conquest to a war of attrition, and make the necessary changes in strategy, logistics, and training to bring it about. OTOH, with their cultural affinity for the "single decisive blow" fighting style of the Samurai, that might be too radical a change in a highly conservative society and culture.
Cheers,
Wes
A part with a city in it?What part of Australia would Japan try to take? It is a huge country/continent.
Defend Midway from what? With our PacFleet down to one carrier (if that), what threat is there to Midway? The Aussies are still tied up in New Guinea, and the Japanese don't have to invade and conquer them immediately, just wipe out their air power and then shut off their supply chain from Japan's new bases in Tulagi and Guadalcanal. An isolated Australia isn't an immediate threat.Japan would have had to make a choice to reinforce and defend Midway or make a Southern assault toward Australia.
Of course it works the same for the Japanese, there are only certain parts they can attack and/or move through without having to bring everything they need, including water.
Defend Midway from what? With our PacFleet down to one carrier (if that), what threat is there to Midway? The Aussies are still tied up in New Guinea, and the Japanese don't have to invade and conquer them immediately, just wipe out their air power and then shut off their supply chain from Japan's new bases in Tulagi and Guadalcanal. An isolated Australia isn't an immediate threat.
And what's this talk of fuel shortages? By this time they'd been feasting on Southeast Asia oil for months, and the attrition of their merchant shipping hadn't really set in yet.
With all six of their big carriers still intact, and others on the ways, they should have been able to keep at least one, and most of the time two, formidable task forces at sea all the time.
Cheers,
Wes
If all 3 US carriers had been lost at Midway, we still had Saratoga (arriving at Hawaii at the end of the Midway battle) Wasp (arrived at San Diego on June 19 after delivering 2 loads of Spitfires to Malta and repairs at Norfolk shipyards) and Ranger (she was ferrying 2 loads of P40's to Africa, 68 on the first load, 72 on the 2nd load).
I would have used these 3 carriers to ferry fighters and single engine bombers to Hawaii until Hawaii couldn't hold any more, B17's and Catalina's from Hawaii patrolling a wide swath to make sure no Japanese carriers show up unannounced. I would not allow them to engage the Japanese fleet, strictly for ferrying aircraft.
If Midway had been successfully invaded (I have no idea if they could pull that off, Shattered Sword gives a reasonable justification that they couldn't) but if Midway did fall, I would harass a Japanese controlled Midway with night attacks by B17's using hundreds of 20-30 pound bombs and parafrags (if parafrags were available) only concerned with destroying aircraft on the runway, not punching holes in the runway with 500 and 1000 pound bombs as they would just be filled in every day by Japanese soldiers. Night attacks by B17's would neutralize Japanese fighters ability to intercept and should be relatively safe as Japanese flak wasn't that formidable. Flying boats would be the other prime target.
New US carriers start coming on line in 1943 along with much improved aircraft and then we start working our way back across the pacific.
If the Japanese cut the supply line through the pacific, could Australia be supplied by sailing around the south end of Africa and through the Indian Ocean? (That is a LONG trip)
In the end, the US has the B29 and 2 nukes, we draw some huge Japanese fleet into a battle and (assuming the concentrate their carriers like the US later did) drop a nuke right in the middle of 6-8 Japanese aircraft carriers in the center of their battle group and follow up with conventional airstrikes to finish them off
And a shaky one, testing the range limitations of most ships, and requiring supply convoys to stay down in the far south latitudes going by the East Indies to stay out of reach of Japanese long range airpower. Underway replenishment in the great southern ocean is an exceedingly risky business, and Japanese submarines were mostly long range operators. Australia would probably soon have become untenable as a US submarine base.If the Japanese cut the supply line through the pacific, could Australia be supplied by sailing around the south end of Africa and through the Indian Ocean? (That is a LONG trip)
A raid into the indian ocean and invasion and conquest of Ceylon / Sri Lanka just as a base from which to disrupt merchant / naval communications could have had devastating results to the British war effort and they definitely could have done that.
They should have done a lot of things, assuming of course they had the oil to fuel the ships, assuming they had the ships (cargo/sealift) in the first place.
Defend Midway from what? With our PacFleet down to one carrier (if that), what threat is there to Midway? The Aussies are still tied up in New Guinea, and the Japanese don't have to invade and conquer them immediately, just wipe out their air power and then shut off their supply chain from Japan's new bases in Tulagi and Guadalcanal. An isolated Australia isn't an immediate threat.
And what's this talk of fuel shortages? By this time they'd been feasting on Southeast Asia oil for months, and the attrition of their merchant shipping hadn't really set in yet.
With all six of their big carriers still intact, and others on the ways, they should have been able to keep at least one, and most of the time two, formidable task forces at sea all the time.
Cheers,
Wes
You ignored the sea lift capability. It is about 1500 Nautical miles from Singapore to Sri Lanka. Or nearly 8 days with an 8kt freighter. Not all Japanese bases, especially captured ones like SIngapore had the same capabilities. The Attack on Guadalcanal was based out of Truk which was Japans largest (by far) forward base.
Any ships rounding the Cape of Good Hope heading for Australia aren't going to come within 1000-1500 miles of Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka is 20-50 miles from India for about a 50-60 mile stretch of the Sri Lankan coast, It is going to be a whole lot easier for the British and India to resupply/support Sri Lanka than for the Japanese to resupply after the initial attack.
I didn't ignore anything, and I think we both know that. You are looking for facts to suit your conclusion instead of the other way around.
The Japanese had ports on Sumatra, they had Rangoon (wrecked by the British during the retreat but repairable), they had Kuala Lampur, and yes they had Singapore
The supplies they positioned in Truk and Rabaul weren't there before the war, they had the ability to move logistics.
The IJA also demonstrated during the conquest of Burma that they could still handle British colonial forces in 1942. If the British made a major effort to challenge them there they could always move more assets in.