The coming $26 billion windfall for the Canadian Armed Forces. What to buy? (1 Viewer)

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Opting to go with Thyssenkrupp has left a northern Ontario steel company, Algoma Steel, in a ~$345m hole after it was thought the South Korean option was a sure thing. Now a bunch of northern Ontario investment + jobs are at risk.
 
Opting to go with Thyssenkrupp has left a northern Ontario steel company, Algoma Steel, in a ~$345m hole after it was thought the South Korean option was a sure thing. Now a bunch of northern Ontario investment + jobs are at risk.
Not necessarily. The contract will be negotiated over the next several months and could very well stipulate that some Algoma steel be used.
 
I would caution anyone against Sth Korean purchases. Having had some direct experience with their offerings/follow up actions and related, be cautious with promises vs reality.
Their military industry is rather young, isn't it? I remember their first autos and ships; they were not the best products on the market, especially if compared with Japanese ones. Also, domestic electronics of the 1970s and 1980s, etc.
 
Their military industry is rather young, isn't it? I remember their first autos and ships; they were not the best products on the market, especially if compared with Japanese ones. Also, domestic electronics of the 1970s and 1980s, etc.
Do we know if Poland is happy with their Korean tanks? I wasn't keen on Canada being the West's very first trial balloon of Korean submarine tech. The KF-21 fighter looks promising, and may well come to dominate the non-F-35 business for western-aligned 5th (4.5?) gen fighters. If there's any submarine out of Asia I'd want for Canada it would be Japan's Sōryū-class. Australia may wish they'd taken Japan up on that offer.
 
Objectively, the Typhoon and Rafale are not cheap. On the other end the single engine Grippen seems an odd choice for a huge country as Canada.
Given last week's declaration of a trade war, I think our PM Carney may be leaning towards dropping the F-35 entirely. We can negotiate a penalty for not taking the initial eighteen or whatever units, but they can be readily sold to the next customer in line anyway. Canada's relationship with the US is broken, and will remain so until past Jan 2029, likely into the early 2030s. It makes no sense thus to buy US kit.

Of the three you mention, the Gripen is the reasonable and most available option. The KAI KF-21 looks promising for the future, but the Koreans are likely annoyed with us over the submarine rejection. My guess is that before Christmas, we exit the F-35 contract and order Gripens, along with doubling down on GCAP.
 
Canada needs hundreds of, domestically built, high performance, low cost, multirole fighter aircraft; not a few dozen costly imports. The whole rational and purpose of our air force and air defense systems must be based upon the availability of numerous reserves of trained personnel and hundreds of reserve aircraft.
 
Canada needs hundreds of, domestically built, high performance, low cost, multirole fighter aircraft; not a few dozen costly imports.
Such as?

I challenge you to find any aircraft that will satisfy that desire. I also question where the hundreds of pilots will come from, unless of course you are talking uninhabited/autonomous designs.
 
Such as?

I challenge you to find any aircraft that will satisfy that desire. I also question where the hundreds of pilots will come from, unless of course you are talking uninhabited/autonomous designs.
F-20 Tigershark; Canada built hundreds of CF-5s and we can still build hundreds of CF-20s.

The hundreds of aircrew come from training programs but that also requires lots of service aircraft and lots of reserve aircraft to handle the inevitable attrition.
 
F-20 Tigershark; Canada built hundreds of CF-5s and we can still build hundreds of CF-20s.
So a design that is approx 40+yrs old, never really got into production (remember only 3 built in total), has probably no design drawings etc still in existence, is grossly outdated in terms of core technologies and would still be subject to any US restrictions? Right....
The hundreds of aircrew come from training programs but that also requires lots of service aircraft and lots of reserve aircraft to handle the inevitable attrition.
Many Air Forces, and I assume the RCAF is one of them, are already struggling with air crew. Just wishing them up won't make it happen.
 
So a design that is approx 40+yrs old, never really got into production (remember only 3 built in total), has probably no design drawings etc still in existence, is grossly outdated in terms of core technologies and would still be subject to any US restrictions? Right....

Many Air Forces, and I assume the RCAF is one of them, are already struggling with air crew. Just wishing them up won't make it happen.
The F-16, F-15, Mig 29... all competetive with modern avionics. The airframe is almost irrelevant; it's the weapons systems and avioinics that really matter.
 
The F-16, F-15, Mig 29... all competetive with modern avionics. The airframe is almost irrelevant; it's the weapons systems and avioinics that really matter.
It is one thing to update an existing platform but another to try to put one into production that hasn't been in real production ever. It also seems ridiculous to pick one from over 4 decades ago. Just as it was ridiculous when some were pushing for a new version of the AVRO Arrow a few years back instead oof the F-35. Going with an in production type will be far more cost effective. If one really wants to go for a totally homegrown design, it would be far more practical to go with something that is looking to the future, namely something such as an uninhabited type. Warning though: if one is looking for something to be competitive, it is going to be costly. Getting the air crew out of the platform and adopting a CONOPS almost akin to "break glass in case of war" will help on the sustainment costs but there is no way to avoid the fact that modern, capable combat aircraft are expensive.
 
Canada needs hundreds of, domestically built, high performance, low cost, multirole fighter aircraft; not a few dozen costly imports. The whole rational and purpose of our air force and air defense systems must be based upon the availability of numerous reserves of trained personnel and hundreds of reserve aircraft.
What Canada needs to do is patrol our borders. We are a very large, lightly populated country. We need something fast, with a long range and lots of radar. For home defence purposes, stealth is not important. This means a large, twin engined aircraft very much like the old Avro Arrow. Australia has a similar problem, so maybe they want to participate in the program.

We also have a NATO commitment. This is a good job for one of the European jets.
 
What Canada needs to do is patrol our borders. We are a very large, lightly populated country. We need something fast, with a long range and lots of radar. For home defence purposes, stealth is not important. This means a large, twin engined aircraft very much like the old Avro Arrow. Australia has a similar problem, so maybe they want to participate in the program.

We also have a NATO commitment. This is a good job for one of the European jets.
You don't defend a large country by standing patrols using manned fighters. That's just impractical. Even the AVRO Arrow wasn't planned to be used this way. You use sensors etc to detect and then go from there. This has long been the case for Canada and others (including Australia). Hence why Canada's purchase of Australia's Jindalee over-the-horizon radar technology to enable the Arctic Over-the-Horizon-Radar (A-OTHR)/Polar Over-the-Horizon Radar (P-OTHR) is important.
 
Is this the future?

And before the "sovereign" long-range unmanned systems appear, can the above-mentioned sensors be carried by foreign platforms such as Eurodrone, Herone TP, and Acinci?
 
Rafale or Typhoon are more potent, albeit more expensive than Gripen.

A mix may be optimal.


In any case, Trump has broken trust with many allies, especially Canada. Hopefully, sometime before my children die of old age, his successors will restore US honor
 
Rafale or Typhoon are more potent, albeit more expensive than Gripen.
The Gripen E has a longer air intercept, Meteor-armed endurance than the Rafale or Typhoon. Though it is very close. And unlike the others, the Gripen is being readily offered to Canada.
What Canada needs to do is patrol our borders.
Indeed, as is our obligation under NORAD. We don't need to give the White House any justification to enter our air space.

I'm not pleased that the F-35's Lockheed-Martin is the primary systems contractor to the RCN's new River class destroyers. Smarter people than me will need to tell us that was a smart move.

 
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The Gripen E has a longer air intercept, Meteor-armed endurance than the Rafale or Typhoon.
Are you referring to aerial endurance (i.e. time in the air)? If so, a little thing called aerial refuelling kind of makes that a moot point. It is also a meaningless point unless both aircraft are operating at the same range under similar conditions.

If you are specifically talking about the MBDA Meteor, than the Rafale and Typhoon both also carry the Meteor:

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dassault_rafale_f3r_meteor_missile.jpg


And unlike the others, the Gripen is being readily offered to Canada.
True, they aren't being offered...and perhaps one should ask why that is. Perhaps it is because neither of their producers believe Canada is a viable sale option. Saab on the other hand a pushing big time because they know a win here would be a big one for them. They are also trying to play the political game rather than rely on actual capabilities.

This is not to say that the Gripen E/F is a bad aircraft. It is a good one and I actually like it. However, to try to compare it to the F-35 in terms of capability or industrial benefits (yes, these are important to governments) is not realistic.
 
Canada needs hundreds of, domestically built, high performance, low cost, multirole fighter aircraft; not a few dozen costly imports. The whole rational and purpose of our air force and air defense systems must be based upon the availability of numerous reserves of trained personnel and hundreds of reserve aircraft.
"domestically built, high performance, low cost, multirole..."
You can have three of the above but getting all four is going to be tough.
 

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