War with Germany inevitable?

[michaelmaltby]

Agreed, Buffnut.

MM

 

[Messy1]

I just do not believe the U.S. could sit out and let the whole of Europe suffer under German rule. I do not believe that Hitler would have stopped, weather he invaded England or not, no matter if he was successful or not, it was only matter of time before he would go on the offensive again and expand his empire even more. Hitler was too power hungry to stop trying to conquer any and all countries he could. Also, peace between England and Germany would have never happened IMO. Hitler could not afford to give England any period of time to rearm or time to rebuild and fortify her armed forces. I do not believe the economies of the world could have survived with Germany controlling almost the entire European continent and possibly large portions of Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Just the economic factors alone would have made war inevitable. Germany could have put a stranglehold on the free worlds economies. Also, Japan was not likely to stop it's conquests, and as war between Japan and the U.S. was unavoidable IMO, war between the U.S. and Japan would have brought Germany into the fray. Japan's expansion in the Pacific involved England and the US, and so too it would have brought Germany in no matter what.

 

[timshatz]

".... the germans returing from the western front in WWI brought influenza with them."

Interesting. Never heard THAT theory before. I had previously read that the disease was spawned in the massive military tent camps set up by the US Army in 1917 upon entry into the war. Then exported to Europe:


MM

Actually, recent work to trace the source of the disease goes back to a British Camp in Ettaples in France, 1916/1917. It was called "PLU" or "PRU" and was an unknown disease. But that is as far as it has gotten so far. Probably goes back farther but nobody has caught thread beyond that.

But considering the Trenches with Millions of men in horrible septic conditions, in close contact with Swine and Fowl, it is a pretty good bet that the disease started somewhere in the trenches around the second winter of the war with a chicken or pig getting a human flu strain at the same time it had an animal flu strain. The two combined and out comes the start of the disease. Mutated plenty of times and eventually becomes the influenza of 1918.

 

[mikewint]

timshatz, excellent post, i had never heard or read that, i will definitely look into that aspect of it. influenze is invariably asian in origin as it is today. so my knowledge of this is that the germans in russia had initially contracted the disease and brought it into europe as they returned from the western front and from there to the allied forces

 

[buffnut453]

I just do not believe the U.S. could sit out and let the whole of Europe suffer under German rule. I do not believe that Hitler would have stopped, weather he invaded England or not, no matter if he was successful or not, it was only matter of time before he would go on the offensive again and expand his empire even more. Hitler was too power hungry to stop trying to conquer any and all countries he could. Also, peace between England and Germany would have never happened IMO. Hitler could not afford to give England any period of time to rearm or time to rebuild and fortify her armed forces. I do not believe the economies of the world could have survived with Germany controlling almost the entire European continent and possibly large portions of Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Just the economic factors alone would have made war inevitable. Germany could have put a stranglehold on the free worlds economies. Also, Japan was not likely to stop it's conquests, and as war between Japan and the U.S. was unavoidable IMO, war between the U.S. and Japan would have brought Germany into the fray. Japan's expansion in the Pacific involved England and the US, and so too it would have brought Germany in no matter what.

Messy,

"Peace" between Britain and Germany would ultimately have looked a lot like the Vichy regime in France - at best a pliable puppet regime, at worst a fascist-leaning dictatorship. Whether Germany would have invaded Britain is largely irrelevant. If Britain sued for "peace" then there would be no need for invasion. The US could sit out and let the whole of Europe suffer. What Roosevelt was not willing to do was risk being the only democratic power on the face of the planet which inevitably would have resulted in America fighting a 2-front war under conditions optimised for the Axis powers.

Cheers,
Mark

 

[michaelmaltby]

Thanks Timshatz.

MM

 

[timshatz]

My pleasure guys. Studied the 1918 Influenza as something of a hobby for a bit (maybe I should think about modeling instead- less gruesome) and found out it was mislabled (Spanish Influenza), mistracked (US Midwest wave was a late wave) and pretty much unknown (although I think they've indentified it as being one of the Avian tyes).

The pandemic strains come mostly from the Orient today because of the proximity of Humans to Livestock such as Pigs or Chickens. It can happen anywhere, but the math is on the side of it happening in the orient simply because the population density of all concerned is so high. It has happened at least 2x in the last 10 years that led to outbreaks. But both were contained (usually by killing all potential carrier livestock in the area and quaranteening the individuals who had it).

The WHO pretty much sits in the Orient looking for something to pop again because it is only a matter of time before it does. But there are a ton of variables that have to kick in for a virus to become a pandemic. Odds are against the disease being anything more than the usual flu that we get every year.

 

[stona]

ignored england, secured the mid-east oil fields and consolidated the conquered european nations. such a germany would have posed a very serious threat to the US so eventual war, possibly

He couldn't "consolidate the conqurered European nations" and ignore England. One of those nations was Poland whose very existence was guaranteed by Britain (and France) by treaty. The British,after all the appeasement, quite rightly felt themselves obligated by this treaty.Britain declared war on Germany,whatever Germany tried to do after that a state of war existed between the two nations.
How was Hitler supposed to capture his oil supplies in the Middle East? That's where his armies were heading,through the Caucasus,when the Soviets stopped them. He couldn't go via North Africa as his army was defeated by the British there at El Alamein.He couldn't make an assault through the Mediterranean as this was under British control,though disputed. The Germans failed even to subdue the island of Malta,let alone land in the Middle East.
There seems to be a perception that Britain and her allies were in some way being passive after the fall of France.
Infact they were winning crucial battles,in the skies over southern England,in the Mediterranean and North Africa and in the Atlantic.
Even on D-Day more British and Commonwealth (mainly Canadian) troops landed than did troops from the USA. Do not imagine that I'm demeaning the effort or heroism of those americans, quite the reverse I have nothing but the greatest admiration for those young men fighting thousands of miles from home.I'm sure that view is shared by any sensible British person.The invasion would not have happened without them.I just want to put things in perspective.
Cheers
Steve

 

[tail end charlie]

He couldn't "consolidate the conqurered European nations" and ignore England. One of those nations was Poland whose very existence was guaranteed by Britain (and France) by treaty. The British,after all the appeasement, quite rightly felt themselves obligated by this treaty.Britain declared war on Germany,whatever Germany tried to do after that a state of war existed between the two nations.
How was Hitler supposed to capture his oil supplies in the Middle East? That's where his armies were heading,through the Caucasus,when the Soviets stopped them. He couldn't go via North Africa as his army was defeated by the British there at El Alamein.He couldn't make an assault through the Mediterranean as this was under British control,though disputed. The Germans failed even to subdue the island of Malta,let alone land in the Middle East.

During the North Africa campaign both sides accused the other of poisoning water wells with oil which they may have done, but some of it was natuarl oil.....apparently no one thought there might be oil or gas there. Algeria and Lybia both have fairly large oil and gas fields now. Oil discovered in Saudi Arabia was in Dammam near Bahrain hardly practical to transport from there to Germany.

 

[mikewint]

Timshatz, found my source, Andrew Price-Smith in Contagion and Chaos using Austrian sources has tracked the disease to Austria in the spring of 1917. conditions in the german trenches exacerbated the contagion i.e. close contact, poor food, poor hygiene and mild cases stayed on duty while the very ill were loaded on crowded trains to be transported to crowded hospitals. Thus there was a higher morbidity and morbidity on the german side of the conflict. Most sources agree that the disease originated in asia for the reasons you stated. the tern Spanish Flu was due to Spain being neutral with no war-time censorship thus the 8 million fatalities (British Medical Journal 7/13/1918 ) were reported uncensored.
in the US first cases were in the spring of 1918 at Ft. Riley Kansas and other Military Bases where returning veterans infected new troops. by sept 1918 Boston was another hot spot due to returning troops spreading the virus which had undergone its second mutation

 

[diddyriddick]

Actually, recent work to trace the source of the disease goes back to a British Camp in Ettaples in France, 1916/1917. It was called "PLU" or "PRU" and was an unknown disease. But that is as far as it has gotten so far. Probably goes back farther but nobody has caught thread beyond that.

But considering the Trenches with Millions of men in horrible septic conditions, in close contact with Swine and Fowl, it is a pretty good bet that the disease started somewhere in the trenches around the second winter of the war with a chicken or pig getting a human flu strain at the same time it had an animal flu strain. The two combined and out comes the start of the disease. Mutated plenty of times and eventually becomes the influenza of 1918.

The truth is that we don't know where the virus startd, and probably never will. Though John Barry in The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague In History argues that it started in an army camp in the US before they ever left the States. I believe it was Fort Riley Kansas, but I would have to check that.

 

[mikewint]

Diddy, please read my previous post, the ft. riley cases were in the spring of 1918. there were cases of it in austria in 1917. the 1917 cases were of a milder less lethal form. the second 1918 wave had mutated and grown more lethal in the trenches. returning veterans carried the virus into the US

 

[mikewint]

Stona, to answer your questions recall the Afrika Korps. originally sent merely as a blocking force to rescue 6 Italian divisions, Rommel's 3 german divisions, outnumbered and under-supplied, pushed the British from Tripoli to within a few hundred miles of the suez canal almost ejecting them from africa. during this 2yr period 3 german divisions and 6 italian divisions tied up 20 british division or 1/2 of british forces.
had hitler turned from russia and used the same resources in africa the british would have been ejected as they were at Dunkirk
as i stated in an earlier post, the british, inspite of their treaty could have done nothing for the polish. they tried and were ejected at Dunkirk which would have been a total disaster had hitler not held the panzers back. believing goering he sent in the lutwaffe. the british lost only equipment the panzer forces would have taken the men and britian would have lost an entire army

 

[timshatz]

Diddy, please read my previous post, the ft. riley cases were in the spring of 1918. there were cases of it in austria in 1917. the 1917 cases were of a milder less lethal form. the second 1918 wave had mutated and grown more lethal in the trenches. returning veterans carried the virus into the US

The bug, such as it was, faced no real barrier in the trenches. While it was impossible for an individual to cross the No Man's Land, it was easy for a bug to do so. Most likely through POWs and the like. Once it got going in either sides trenches, it was pretty much off the the races.

The bug went through a number of mutations before it ended. Each mutation usually has about 10 lives (switch from host to host to host). In other words, it can go through ten hosts before it peters out (even bugs run out of steam). But in the process of jumping from hosts to hosts, it mutates so it becomes a little less or a little more deadly (and each mutation has ten lives BUT an individual who has had an earlier variation is less likely to be affected by it, the earlier version extends some immunity). The 1918 flue had only about a 5% mortality rate (as apposed to bugs like the black death which made it into the 30-40% range overall) and was not as brutal as other bugs. But it was the first modern Pandemic and with out a doubt, the best covered and documented. There were numerous Yellow Fever and Cholera epidemics (there is a Cholera epidemic running rampant in Africa right now) but the 1918 Influenza was the first one that happened in the modern, industrial period.

Where it came from is a matter of speculation. In France, in the period of 1914-1918, you had a huge number of people from places that had never been to the West before. And they came in groups. They brought with them all sorts of social practices, cultural differences and, unfortunately, bugs. Normally, a ship traveling from a foriegn land would take on a number of passengers and any one of them could have the a local bug. But given the length of time of the travel and the number of people leaving or getting on, the odds of a bug surviving the trip were low. It would die out on board, one way or another. But a troopship that made no stops and had a thousand or two hosts on it, could bring the bug all the way to France in a virulent form. Once it go to France, it could find a whole new population of individuals without resistance to it. That is why I think the first or second winter of the war established the basic form of this bug. But it took years to grow in strength and population to be the killer it was in 1918.

Once it transfered into a swine or avian host (which are the two animals most suceptable to Human diseases alongside some rodents) it would mix genes with a swine or avian host. Then, it goes back to the question of mutation.

It could've happened in the German trenches, but if I had to bet, I would go with the Allied trenches just because it had so many different options. The vast majority of the troops in the German trenches came from countries/states within 300 miles of each other. The bugs they carried had a history in each trooper. But the Allied trenches were full of Africans, Asians, Indians, Canadians, South Africans, ect. That is a helluva mix. Math works better for that bunch.

 

[mikewint]

Tim, excellent post, in fact it is the very facts of trench and miltary warfare that act to increase lethality. mildly sick soldiers stay on duty the seriously ill were loaded on train and sent to even more crowded hospitals. in a civilian environment it is reversed, seriously ill people stay home while the mildly ill go to work
I do take exception to your next to last paragraph, it is an avian virus that transfers to a swine host and then to humans. thus influenza is asian where fowl, pigs, and humans live in the same house. the original 1918 virus has been cultured from the tissues of pandemic victims and its genetic markers are being sequenced. my money is on asia

 

[timshatz]

Tim, excellent post, in fact it is the very facts of trench and miltary warfare that act to increase lethality. mildly sick soldiers stay on duty the seriously ill were loaded on train and sent to even more crowded hospitals. in a civilian environment it is reversed, seriously ill people stay home while the mildly ill go to work
I do take exception to your next to last paragraph, it is an avian virus that transfers to a swine host and then to humans. thus influenza is asian where fowl, pigs, and humans like in the same house where these viruses originate. the original 1918 virus has been cultured from the tissues of pandemic victims and its genetic markers are being sequenced. my money is on asia

Could be Asian, good bet lacking any other argument. No way or knowing. Bugs move around a lot in geographic terms and while the math (there's that math again) says that the more hosts, the better the odds, a definite call is almost impossible. However, as noted earlier, WHO seems to think Asia is the cradle of the next Pandemic. I guess they didn't get the idea from throwing darts at a map.

As for where it came from in regards to animal host, I think both Avian and Swine can produce a flu that affects Humans. I am less sure of transfers between animal hosts. Bugs are fickle in which host they will reside in, humans being just one more. Most disease don't jump species. Example, feline distemper will not affect a human but will kill a housecat. Others do. But, to my understanding, Swine and Fowl can both give Humans a bug.

 

[stona]

Yes, but ultimately as in every theatre,the Germans fell short. There are many what ifs but the facts are the Germans never did reach the Suez canal or the resources of the Middle East,nor could they hold on to the Caucasus,never pushing further through what are now ex-Soviet states,into Iraq/Syria.
Whatever happened in 1940/41 the Afrika Korps was defeated by the British and her Commonwealth allies in 1942 barely ten months after Pearl Harbour and the entry of the U.S into the war.
The Germans never really had a plan to deal with Britain,they had defeated what was considered the pre eminent military power (France) in short order. The BoB and then the Blitz was an effort to force a settlement on Britain,I've never met a serious historian who believes that the Wermacht had the means,ability or will to mount an amphibious invasion of the British Isles in 1940.
The closest run thing (to paraphrase Wellington) was the battle of the Atlantic. Germany very nearly succeeded in defeating the Royal navy with her U-Boat war. Ultimately,again, she failed.
The British certainly couldn't help the Poles militarily.Britain was a naval power and traditionally did not maintain a large standing army in Europe. My grand father,a professional soldier, was dragged back from India as tension mounted.He was also evacuated from Dunkirk. What they did was issue an ultimatum demanding that Germany withdraw from Poland. When she didn't and the ultimatum expired a state of war automatically existed between Britain and Germany.That's what we did for Poland.
Cheers
Steve

 

[stona]

I think modern epidemiologists believe that "Spanish" flue originated in a British depot at Etaples. Livestock including both fowl and pigs were kept in close proximity and the virus made the trans species jumps that everybody was getting worried about recently.
An avian flue virus passed to the pigs and then to people.
Steve

 

[diddyriddick]

Diddy, please read my previous post, the ft. riley cases were in the spring of 1918. there were cases of it in austria in 1917. the 1917 cases were of a milder less lethal form. the second 1918 wave had mutated and grown more lethal in the trenches. returning veterans carried the virus into the US

I'll have to find my copy of Barry, but I'm pretty sure that he places the first cases stateside in 1917. I'll repost when I've found it.

 

[mikewint]

Stona, agreed, and no reflection on british forces and yes, this is all "what if" speculation but considering what the afrika Korps did with what they had, can there be any doubt that if Operation Barbarossa had been aimed at africia the british would have been ejected.
that the germans felt that they had to deal with Britain was a hitler phobia. his failure to unleash the panzers against Dunkirk was more of his phobic response to the british. with the continent secured the british could have sat on their island. what could they have mounted against the germans? air raids are about it.
as i said originally we are lucky a moron was the german leader