What does Japan do if War against USA/UK/DEI postponed to Spring 1942?

[Admiral Beez]

That would be why IJN claimed its 1942 turning point theory that the US Navy would exceed IJN in the number of warships after the year 1942. December 1941 was neither too early nor too late for IJN.

If Japan has waited until April 1942 not much has changed in the heavy ships, neither the USN or IJN have completed any new carriers. Both sides have commissioned one new battleship, BB57 USS South Dakota and IJNS Yamato. The USN will be rushing to get destroyers into the water now that they're (likely) at war with Germany. What has changed by April 1942 is the clear indication that Germany is in deep trouble, and that aligning oneself with Hitler would be folly.

Perhaps Japan goes straight for the DEI and Malaya without attacking the USA or Philippines? This could be based on an assumption that Britain and the Netherlands are either preoccupied or defeated in Europe, and that the US won't want a two front war.

 

[ThomasP]

Hey Shinpachi,

Thank you for answering my question. I am sometimes hesitant to make answers to questions revolving around foreign countries and their individual and national/social views on the subjects we discuss in forums like this one. Although I have read as much as I can find about Japan's history, from
its origins to post WWII, I do not read Japanese. This has been a very limiting and humbling experience for me. There are very few books translated into English (as far as I have found) that tell the experience of the Japanese - relative to what we are discussing - from a Japanese viewpoint.

 

[ThomasP]

Hey Admiral Beez,

re:"The US, UK and USSR is at war with Germany . . ."

I am a little confused. Are we assuming that Germany declares war on the US (or the other way around) at some time before 1 April 1942, even though Japan has not attacked the US? Just want to get my parameters straight, because that does change the dynamics to a very large degree.

 

[GrauGeist]

On the Chinese situation, the Nationalists numbered close to 4 million and the Communists numbered around 1 million.
Initially, the Nationalists were supplied and trained by the Germans and the Communists were trained and supplied by the Soviet Union.

By the mid-30's, the Nationalists had tanks like the German Pzkfw I Ausf. A, Italian CV-35, British Vickers MK.E/F and M1936 as well as some older French Renault FTs.
Add to this, the armored cars and tankette purchased from various sources.

They had Curtiss Hawks (various models), Fiat CR.32s, Polikarpov I-15 and I-16s, Boeing P-26s, Breda Ba.27s, Dewoitine D.500s and so on.

This was all prior to 1937 and all due to the civil war.

So let's stop and consider what state the Chinese military would have been if there hadn't been roughly ten years of war before the Japanese showed up.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I am a little confused. Are we assuming that Germany declares war on the US (or the other way around) at some time before 1 April 1942, even though Japan has not attacked the US?

Yes. Circling back to post #1.

With unrestricted U-Boat attacks I would say the USA will declare war on Germany without Japan's nudge by Jan-Feb 1942.

 

[NevadaK]

Welllll, I just take a whole different tack here.

Spring 1942 - Start Timeline
1) The US is still at peace, but has continued to ramp up the Arsenal of Democracy and is now the largest producer of war materials . The Arsenal of Democracy was a war plan that preceded the US entry into the war and jump-started US war production with the intent of supporting allied nations and war preparedness.
2) Lend-Lease is in full swing and supplies to the Soviet Union are proceeding as they did historically. In this case, with no war in the Pacific there is greater cross Pacific shipping using both US and USSR ships.
3) Japan assesses that the US is rapidly becoming a fully armed and prepared country. Japan seeks a political versus confrontational solution to the China crisis and embargo.
4) US/Nazi tensions are very high following a number of incidents in the Atlantic involving sinking of US neutral flagged ships.
5) Japan in self-interest and seeing an opportunity denounces all relations with Nazi Germany and begins negotiations with the US to resolve the China issue.
6) The US is open to discussion to avoid a second front war.
7) Japan extends an offer of cooperation to the US/USSR to assist with shipping of critical supplies as well as stand down from hostile positions with the USSR.
8) The USSR accepts, freeing up eastern front troops to provide a counterattack against Germany. This looks more like a spring/summer offensive 1942 than the 1941 winter offensive made possible by USSR pre-knowledge of the Pearl Harbor attack.
9) The US and Japan negotiate a partial Japanese withdrawal from China in exchange for the resumption of shipments of raw materials and oil.
10) Japan makes a limited commitment to the allied war effort providing protection to USSR Indian Ocean convoys.
11) Post war, Japan struggles with 25 years of insurgent combat throughout China and Indochina and ultimately withdraws from all foreign lands in the 1970's.
12) 1970's Japan sinks into a lengthy recession due to aging factories and economic infrastructure.

 

[The Basket]

Frighteningly lucid. This guy don't internet much.

So not sure how to argue against you.

This what a what if should be.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

US/Nazi tensions are very high following a number of incidents in the Atlantic involving sinking of US neutral flagged ships.

It's a toss up who declares war first, as by fall of 1941 US is already openly engaged in the Battle of the Atlantic and has lost at least one warship (Reuben James) to a Uboat torpedo and is only a matter of time away from achieving a Uboat kill herself.

 

[GrauGeist]

The USS Kearny was sunk by a Uboat almost two weeks before the USS Reuben James.

However, that previous April, the US Destroyer Niblack (DD-424) was rescuing survivors from a Dutch freighter off the coast of Iceland that had just been sunk by U-52 and detected the U-Boat preparing to attack it, so it went after U-52 with depth charges. I beleive U-52 sustained damage in the attack, too.
In a strange twist, the USS Niblack also rescued survivors of the Reuben James, too.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

The USS Kearny was sunk by a Uboat almost two weeks before the USS Reuben James.

Yeah, but the Reuben James was immortalized in song, as anybody who survived the folk song craze of the early 60s knows! What about the Kearny?

 

[Admiral Beez]

It's a toss up who declares war first, as by fall of 1941 US is already openly engaged in the Battle of the Atlantic and has lost at least one warship (Reuben James) to a Uboat torpedo and is only a matter of time away from achieving a Uboat kill herself.

Agreed. Once the US is officially at war with Germany (and Italy?) I think Japan's next move will depend on the demonstrative scale of the American effort. Does the US move forces to North Africa? With no pressing needs in the Pacific will we see the US' fleet carriers in the Med? If so, Malta is safe.

 

[SaparotRob]

Agreed. Once the US is officially at war with Germany (and Italy?) I think Japan's next move will depend on the demonstrative scale of the American effort. Does the US move forces to North Africa? With no pressing needs in the Pacific will we see the US' fleet carriers in the Med? If so, Malta is safe.

That's the "what if" scenario I was hoping you would've come up with, Admiral.

 

[swampyankee]

On the Chinese situation, the Nationalists numbered close to 4 million and the Communists numbered around 1 million.
Initially, the Nationalists were supplied and trained by the Germans and the Communists were trained and supplied by the Soviet Union.

By the mid-30's, the Nationalists had tanks like the German Pzkfw I Ausf. A, Italian CV-35, British Vickers MK.E/F and M1936 as well as some older French Renault FTs.
Add to this, the armored cars and tankette purchased from various sources.

They had Curtiss Hawks (various models), Fiat CR.32s, Polikarpov I-15 and I-16s, Boeing P-26s, Breda Ba.27s, Dewoitine D.500s and so on.

This was all prior to 1937 and all due to the civil war. The Kuomintang controlled about

So let's stop and consider what state the Chinese military would have been if there hadn't been roughly ten years of war before the Japanese showed up.

More than ten years; the Warlord Era started in 1916. Even after Chiang unified China, the warlords were a serious threat during the entire period of WWII and the war with Japan.

 

[GrauGeist]

More than ten years; the Warlord Era started in 1916. Even after Chiang unified China, the warlords were a serious threat during the entire period of WWII and the war with Japan.

The trained and well equipped forces of the Nationalists and Communists, which had been fighting in earnest since 1927, cannot be compared to the martial fitness or numbers of the warlords' "armies".

 

[Conslaw]

Wildcards here include the Vichy French and the Reichskommissariat Niederlande (the German puppet government for the Netherlands). Japan doesn't pull out of China, but asserts that it was invited into Indochina and Indonesia by the respective puppet governments. We know that the US wouldn't go to war just to keep the Japanese out of Indochina. Would they have joined the exiled Dutch government to keep the Japanese out of Indonesia (Dutch East Indies). With these territories under practical Japanese control, would the Japanese need American oil?

Militarily, every month's wait worked against Japanese chances for success. Japan needed (and got) a huge dose of luck to wipe out American airpower in the Philippines. If the Americans had more experience with their radar, and if the P-40s in crates had been assembled and broken in, it would have been that much harder. As it was, Americans held out in the Philippines from December 1941 to May 1942. Bump that to September 1942, and American industry was starting to take hold. By then almost all US Navy ships had radar, and some had centimetric SG radar and radar fire control. American carriers had raised their fighter capacity by 50% thanks to the folding-wing F4F-4. TBD torpedo planes would soon be replaced by TBFs. Many of the old battleships had been updated, or were in the process of being updated. The North Carolina battleships were debugged and in service. The South Dakota battleships were dribbling in. New Brooklyn-class (then Cleveland class) cruisers were on the way. Fletcher-class destroyers were coming in in numbers as well as new, modern submarines. Pilot training had been expanded 10-fold. In just a few months F4Fs would be supplemented by F4Us. P-40s and P-39s would be supplemented by P-38s.

 

[GrauGeist]

Are we going to stay with the historical timeline of breaking the Japanese codes?

 

[Conslaw]

Welllll, I just take a whole different tack here.

Spring 1942 - Start Timeline
1) The US is still at peace, but has continued to ramp up the Arsenal of Democracy and is now the largest producer of war materials . The Arsenal of Democracy was a war plan that preceded the US entry into the war and jump-started US war production with the intent of supporting allied nations and war preparedness.
2) Lend-Lease is in full swing and supplies to the Soviet Union are proceeding as they did historically. In this case, with no war in the Pacific there is greater cross Pacific shipping using both US and USSR ships.
3) Japan assesses that the US is rapidly becoming a fully armed and prepared country. Japan seeks a political versus confrontational solution to the China crisis and embargo.
4) US/Nazi tensions are very high following a number of incidents in the Atlantic involving sinking of US neutral flagged ships.
5) Japan in self-interest and seeing an opportunity denounces all relations with Nazi Germany and begins negotiations with the US to resolve the China issue.
6) The US is open to discussion to avoid a second front war.
7) Japan extends an offer of cooperation to the US/USSR to assist with shipping of critical supplies as well as stand down from hostile positions with the USSR.
8) The USSR accepts, freeing up eastern front troops to provide a counterattack against Germany. This looks more like a spring/summer offensive 1942 than the 1941 winter offensive made possible by USSR pre-knowledge of the Pearl Harbor attack.
9) The US and Japan negotiate a partial Japanese withdrawal from China in exchange for the resumption of shipments of raw materials and oil.
10) Japan makes a limited commitment to the allied war effort providing protection to USSR Indian Ocean convoys.
11) Post war, Japan struggles with 25 years of insurgent combat throughout China and Indochina and ultimately withdraws from all foreign lands in the 1970's.
12) 1970's Japan sinks into a lengthy recession due to aging factories and economic infrastructure.

 

[Conslaw]

Nevadak - quite plausible.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Militarily, every month's wait worked against Japanese chances for success.

Agreed, but conversely every month's wait demonstrates to the Japanese both that the Germans have fatally overstepped and that the US industrial might is matched with a willingness to fight.

 

[Mad Dog]

Someone high up in Japan decides to wait until Spring 1942 to see what happens in Russia before commencing war against the USA, Britain and the DEI. This nameless person might have saved their nation, as by end of March 1942 the Germans have clearly overstepped themselves in Russia, with the failure of Operation Typhoon to take Moscow. With unrestricted U-Boat attacks I would say the USA will declare war on Germany without Japan's nudge by Jan-Feb 1942. We have to assume that Japan has managed to survive on the rapidly dwindling resources and industrial capacity it has unto this later date.

It's now April 1, 1942, 3 months, 25 days since the aborted Dec 7th attack on Pearl Harbour. On a Japanese military front beyond the near exhaustion of fuel for its ships, aircraft, vehicles forges and furnaces (yes, I know that's critically bad), not much has changed from Dec 1941, no new carriers have entered service, though the two Junyo class CVLs are close to completion. The first 150 or so Ki-44 fighters have entered service. The IJNS Yamato has now entered service. the Germans are bogged down in Russia where the Soviets are now receiving their first convoys of support from USA/Britain, Britain is gaining strength in North Africa and the North Atlantic, and most importantly the USA is now actively at war.

Looking at this new world situation in April 1942, what does Japan do? I think attacking Pearl Harbour would be insane.

OK, why would the Japanese wait? They're running out of oil and they don't have compromise built into their mindset. The only way I could see this playing out was if the Japanese secured oil supplies from Soviet Russia in a kind of Eastern Molotov Agreement. It is valuable to the Soviets as it ensures they can bring troops from Manchuria to fight the invading Germans, and also because any Japanese threat is mainly to the USSR's long-term ideological enemies, the colonial powers and the USA. With oil supplies secured by Soviet Russia, the Japanese could continue their conquest of China, which would take a good few years, then review the status of the West. If the Allies have finished Germany by then, Japan can agree a peace with China under her thumb. Would a war-weary Britain want to go to war with Japan over China? Unlikely. And if Roosevelt has died, would Truman pursue the same policy against China given the Allies now face a Soviet occupation of half of Europe which Roosevelt had unintentionally made happen?