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The British low level raid on the Philips radio plant in Holland in Dec of 1942 certainly didn't point to any great success, 93 bombers dispatched, 84 reached the target, The target was heavily damaged but 14 bombers were lost, some due to collisions with trees and buildings. 53 of the returning bombers were damaged, 7 heavily. Some of the damage was due to bird strikes.
17% losses are unsustainable for a continuing campaign.
Th unarmed Mosquito day bomber was a failure. Bomber Command reported to the AAF that the type was being pulled out of service after only 11 months of operations - the aircraft and crews were shifted to night missions.
The Mosquito's "tree top" missions with "pinpoint accuracy" were done in small groups.
Their max. load of 4,000 pounds were done on certain occasions - and that load both shortened their range as well as compromised their speed.
You are not going to destroy a manufacturing site (ball bearing plant or aircraft factory) with a hand full of 4,000 pound specialized bombs.
As I just watched a YouTube vid touching on it, how about the Mosquito instead of the P-38?
First - you're talking about eliminating a target. The AAF was talking about eliminating an industry.
Second - the 4,000-pound cookie was most often used at night, just to get Germany's attention. It did little good at eliminating a target, but it was great at making a lot of noise, keeping folks awake, and messing up things on the ground.
The B-17 couldn't carry the 4000lb inside, ever.
The Mosquito didn't carry one operationally until 1944.
Which one do you pick for production in 1940?
First 10 Mosquitos carried four 250lbs in the bomb bay. then the Bomber version was changed to carry four 500lbs.
I have never thought about the other side of the "what-if". You bring up a good point. Switching to Mosquitoes from 4 engined bombers changes the opposition aircraft too.If the Luftwaffe doesn't need to attack B17 & Liberators anymore they reduce their armour, the Me 109 and Fw 190 go back to rifle caliber cowling guns and the outer wing guns of the Fw 190 are eliminated. Speed, climb rate and manouverabillity will go up quite significantly.
If that would have worked, the British would have done it themselves, building Mossies instead of Stirlings, Halifaxes and Lancasters. But, as noted above, the Mosquito wouldn't have been ready in time, and there would have been a lot of practical difficulties to building a wooden airplane in the numbers that would have been required.
It is, in any case borne almost completely from hind sight. The Mosquito didnt have many friends in the British system prior to entering service.If that would have worked, the British would have done it themselves, building Mossies instead of Stirlings, Halifaxes and Lancasters. But, as noted above, the Mosquito wouldn't have been ready in time, and there would have been a lot of practical difficulties to building a wooden airplane in the numbers that would have been required.