What if Germany had access to large Nickel reserves in WWII?

[tomo pauk]

Hi tomo pauk,

If Germany had such a surplus of machine tools - I honestly wouldn't know, but that would not be the issue.
After Hitler had cut of the German industry from its main supplier of tungsten (China) in 1938/9 a steady decline in the quality output by its machine tooling industry
(which needs Wolframcarbid/Tungsten) became obvious by 1941 - e.g. very disastrous effects on valves and high tolerance parts for its jet-engine manufacturers and as such
actually rendering its Me 262 fleet on behalf of its jet-engines as vastly useless. That a lack in skilled manpower or forced labor made it even worse is undeniable.

Regards
Jagdflieger

A big reduction in nickel content was the culprit in exhaust valves corrosion, with disastrous results on reliability for the 1st line aero engines of German production (DB engines suffering also due to not having the oil de-aerator - "Oelschleuder" - like the Jumo engines had; de-aerator was introduced by some time in late 1943). Eventually, the BMW solution to the problem from late 1942 was adopted for the DB engines.
Lack of nickel was also a problem for making durable blades for turbine on jet engines, that was circumvented via the introduction of air-cooled blades made from the chromium-rich alloy.
You can take a look at Calum Douglas' book, or his webinar discussing the rough state of availability of raw materials in Germany, ans steps taken to alleviate the problems.

As for disparity between workforce and machine tools, see for example this document; yes, not all the machines are equal. Basically, Germany in early 1945 have had about the same number of machine tools as the USA, despite having far less population.

 

[Jagdflieger]

A big reduction in nickel content was the culprit in exhaust valves corrosion, with disastrous results on reliability for the 1st line aero engines of German production (DB engines suffering also due to not having the oil de-aerator - "Oelschleuder" - like the Jumo engines had; de-aerator was introduced by some time in late 1943). Eventually, the BMW solution to the problem from late 1942 was adopted for the DB engines.
Lack of nickel was also a problem for making durable blades for turbine on jet engines, that was circumvented via the introduction of air-cooled blades made from the chromium-rich alloy.
You can take a look at Calum Douglas' book, or his webinar discussing the rough state of availability of raw materials in Germany, ans steps taken to alleviate the problems.

As for disparity between workforce and machine tools, see for example this document; yes, not all the machines are equal. Basically, Germany in early 1945 have had about the same number of machine tools as the USA, despite having far less population.

Hi toma pauk,

thanks for the link - greatly appreciated, will take some time to read through
Regards
Jagdflieger

 

[Deleted member 68059]

It is of course totally impossible to quantify it, but I would say that just the Nickel shortage alone probably shortened the war by quite a long period, perhaps something like six months, but more is a possibility.

Whilst it is most unlikely that the outcome would have been changed overall, it is also impossible to actually know that without question. The reason I say that is that there is good evidence that since they knew these shortages were coming, that large efforts were being diverted into making major changes to aero engines well before the war started, and whilst I cannot "prove" it, I suspect that the more advanced German fighter engines like the DB601-E and Q were considerably delayed into sucessful production because the lack of Nickel was already impacting the valve and valveseat coatings as early as 1938 (Cobalt is also critical here). If the 601-E was in service at the start of the Battle of Britain (definitely possible in my view, although it probably also needs some superior management as well), it suddenly starts to get more difficult to be sure of the outcome.

Already in 1938 they are discussing the "1300hp DB601" and the test reports are all mentioning "valve difficulties" and "valve burning", I suspect because with the highly leaded
fuels, especially with high aromatic fuels, you really start to need not only high Nickel valves but also fully coated valve heads like the Merlin ended up with, coated in
stuff like "Brightray" (the coating composition is 80% Nickel !).

At the time Germany was experimenting with "Celsit-V" which is similar in performance, but is mostly Cobalt, with some Tungsten and a lot of Chrome. So the use of this had
to be heavily curtailed too, and this certainly severely retarded German fighter engines very early in the war.

There are a few things to go along with this too, but I would not under-estimate the impact even just this one metallic element had, it is also a "double loss" because not
only did it certainly retard the introduction of higher performance engines, but you also end up devoting design and development effort into solving the lack of the material
which is months and years of work for your best metallurgists and engineers when they could have been developing weaponry.

The Nickel also impacts munitions as the shell casings had to be thickened without it, meaning quite a big drop in explosive content compared to the design intent.

Of course as has been said above, a slight increase in the duration of the war, just increases the danger of nuclear weapons being used in Europe, but that only really
applies if the Battle of Britain can be won, as without Britain as a staging base, the whole thing suddenly gets more difficult and of course German forces
potentially become so distributed that neutralising Berlin feels less likely to be immediately decisive.

We will never know, but I think the impact was profound and impacted almost every aspect of the German military effort to a measurable degree.

In general of course, these things always become paradoxical, because the only sure way Germany could have won involves having much better people than the
Nazi leadership in charge, but if they are NOT, you don't have a war anyway (probably)

 

[Jagdflieger]

..... but that only really applies if the Battle of Britain can be won, as without Britain as a staging base, the whole thing suddenly gets more difficult and of course German forces
potentially become so distributed that neutralising Berlin feels less likely to be immediately decisive.

Thanks for showing these documents, interesting.

But again, Nazi-Germany besides lunatic expectations and ideas was short of everything - right down to "trained" pilots. what many might not take into consideration
was that advanced flight training that was supposed to take place at the Jagdfliegerschulen - factually never took place anywhere near the intended/planed numbers.
A 'miracle" in that regard actually happened after the fall of France, which enabled around 400-500 well trained German POW crewmen to rejoin the Luftwaffe.
The same fortunate circumstances didn't happen during the BoB. It was a massive drain of good and experienced pilots that had been trained in the period 1935 -1938.

As for a "maybe" successful invasion of Britain, on my part I don't find that feasible due to all kinds of factual occurrences. But I am sure there must be hundreds of threads
in dozens of forums dedicated towards that 'if" scenario.

Regards
Jagdflieger

 

[tomo pauk]

Even the 1500 HP engines don't solve the problem of Bf 109 too short the range because it haven't carried enough of fuel. It might even make the problem of range/radius worse, since more powerful engines will be using more fuel.
The main beneficiary of greater engine power would've been the Bf 110?

Winning the BoB (in sense that RAF FC can't fight over SE England) still does not equal the successful invasion of the UK in 1940.

 

[Grant Barr]

Thanks for the input and documentary evidence Calum, D Deleted member 68059 . Indeed it was your book that prompted me to ask the initial what-if.

I did have passing knowledge of the fact that Germany faced serious shortages of additive metals during the war, but I was unaware of the impact of just nickel alone. As you noted - it was a double impact. I would love to know how many extra hours were devoted to developing design solutions to counter the lack of quality resource metals. The exhaust valve issues you documented alone would just be the tip of the iceberg. This is an aspect of the what-if that fascinates me. If the engineers and designers were free from having to develop these novel solutions, what other advancements might have been made. Not something that I think anyone can answer with certainty, but the possibilities are intriguing.

J Jagdflieger & tomo pauk , thanks also for your thoughts. I think that in the immediacy of the early war the lack of nickel may not have made a huge difference, however I suspect that there is scope to think that the small impact earlier in the war may have had a "snowball" effect which may (and I say this only generally) have changed some events later in the war. Whether or not this would have any significant affect on outcome is not likely to be in question, however the duration of the war may have been different and some key battles may not have had the same outcome. As you have already noted, there are still other serious deficiencies that Germany faced outside of materiel that would still play out, but by changing just this one parameter there must be subsequent changes that flow on right through the German war effort. How big could these changes have been - who knows?

All this speculation on possible impacts - that's the fun part of the what-if!

 

[Deleted member 68059]

Even the 1500 HP engines don't solve the problem of Bf 109 too short the range because it haven't carried enough of fuel. It might even make the problem of range/radius worse, since more powerful engines will be using more fuel.
The main beneficiary of greater engine power would've been the Bf 110?

Winning the BoB (in sense that RAF FC can't fight over SE England) still does not equal the successful invasion of the UK in 1940.

1300hp engines dont actually produce 1300hp until you ask them to... and may in many cases consume equal or even in some cases less fuel for a given power than a less
highly rated engine, if the 1300hp engine is better developed with more efficient sc & porting etc.

Its very hard to pick up engine upgrades from DB datasheets on fuel economy after the late 30`s as they were by then having to slightly over fuel to try to lower
temperatures.

 

[Jagdflieger]

Thanks for the input and documentary evidence Calum, D Deleted member 68059 . Indeed it was your book that prompted me to ask the initial what-if.

I did have passing knowledge of the fact that Germany faced serious shortages of additive metals during the war, but I was unaware of the impact of just nickel alone. As you noted - it was a double impact. I would love to know how many extra hours were devoted to developing design solutions to counter the lack of quality resource metals. The exhaust valve issues you documented alone would just be the tip of the iceberg. This is an aspect of the what-if that fascinates me. If the engineers and designers were free from having to develop these novel solutions, what other advancements might have been made. Not something that I think anyone can answer with certainty, but the possibilities are intriguing.

J Jagdflieger & tomo pauk , thanks also for your thoughts. I think that in the immediacy of the early war the lack of nickel may not have made a huge difference, however I suspect that there is scope to think that the small impact earlier in the war may have had a "snowball" effect which may (and I say this only generally) have changed some events later in the war. Whether or not this would have any significant affect on outcome is not likely to be in question, however the duration of the war may have been different and some key battles may not have had the same outcome. As you have already noted, there are still other serious deficiencies that Germany faced outside of materiel that would still play out, but by changing just this one parameter there must be subsequent changes that flow on right through the German war effort. How big could these changes have been - who knows?

All this speculation on possible impacts - that's the fun part of the what-if!

Hi Grant Barr,

yes I totally agree - shortage in everything. Also do not forget to take into consideration that the German industry wasn't geared towards war production till 1943/44 - just look
at the mediocre number of aircraft's produced in 1940 and 41. The huge and costly effort towards developing synthetic fuel ... and so on.

Without getting too political - Hitler saw the means of the Luftwaffe from 1934 -1939 as means for intimidating his political European opponents. this worked actually extremely
well - Rhineland - occupation, Austria's annexation, Sudetenland and Rest-Czechoslovakia. He probably didn't expect Chamberlain to be dismissed and replaced by a Churchill so
soon. His vision to eradicate the Soviet-union with a meanwhile neutralized or even cooperative Britain was envisioned most likely from 1942 onward.


Regards
Jagdflieger

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Thanks for showing these documents, interesting.

But again, Nazi-Germany besides lunatic expectations and ideas was short of everything - right down to "trained" pilots. what many might not take into consideration
was that advanced flight training that was supposed to take place at the Jagdfliegerschulen - factually never took place anywhere near the intended/planed numbers.
A 'miracle" in that regard actually happened after the fall of France, which enabled around 400-500 well trained German POW crewmen to rejoin the Luftwaffe.
The same fortunate circumstances didn't happen during the BoB. It was a massive drain of good and experienced pilots that had been trained in the period 1935 -1938.

As for a "maybe" successful invasion of Britain, on my part I don't find that feasible due to all kinds of factual occurrences. But I am sure there must be hundreds of threads
in dozens of forums dedicated towards that 'if" scenario.

Regards
Jagdflieger

While I agree with your assessment of Sealion's potential for success, it should be noted that the conquest of the UK isn't necessary to remove the UK as a base of operations. A negotiated peace in 1940 rendering the UK neutral would achieve the same objective.

 

[Jagdflieger]

While I agree with your assessment of Sealion's potential for success, it should be noted that the conquest of the UK isn't necessary to remove the UK as a base of operations. A negotiated peace in 1940 rendering the UK neutral would achieve the same objective.

Yes if that option would be feasible - no doubt, but with Churchill (his mindset/conviction) having taken over, IMHO this is not feasible to me.
Where I might see a consensus would be under the circumstance that if Hitler had not declared war onto the USA - therefore refocusing onto the England issue from 1942 onward
and with England as such realizing that they are indeed on their own. (But with a lunatic at the helm) - I think that even this alternate option just wouldn't be feasible either.

Regards
Jagdflieger

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Yes if that option would be feasible - no doubt, but with Churchill (his mindset/conviction) having taken over, IMHO this is not feasible to me.
Where I might see a consensus would be under the circumstance that if Hitler had not declared war onto the USA - therefore refocusing onto the England issue from 1942 onward
and with England as such realizing that they are indeed on their own. But with a lunatic at the helm) - I think that even this alternate option just wouldn't be feasible either.

Regards
Jagdflieger

Historically, there were many in England in the summer of 1940 who were on the fence regarding Churchill premiership. Had the RAF lost BoB, it's not certain Churchill could have retained power, I don't think. Of course, we're well into what-if territory here, so who knows?

 

[Jagdflieger]

Historically, there many in England in the summer of 1940 who were on the fence. Had the RAF lost BoB, it's not certain Churchill could have retained power, I don't think. Of course, we're well into what-if territory here, so who knows?

And let's not forget there was the Nazi party leader No. 2 who had flown to Scotland - remember?

Regards
Jagdflieger

 

[SaparotRob]

What kind of plane Hess flying again?

 

[Grant Barr]

Bf.110 IIRC

 

[nuuumannn]

What kind of plane Hess flying again?

Yup, Bf 110 in what was an impressive feat of airmanship to have gotten as close to his intended destination as he did, bailing out in the dark. The fuselage is in the possession of the IWM, which has one of its engines. The other is in a museum in Scotland.

When I worked in museums over there, the Hess conspiracies were all quite active and I met one of the perpetrators who had written books on the subject - no internet for conspiracy theories back then - He was a knowledgeable chap but as with any follower of a conspiracy, was quite obsessed with his cause. Angus, the Duke of Hamilton used to come to our museum frequently to discuss aviation matters, and his brother James, both sons of Douglas, the Duke whom Hess was flying to Scotland to meet with, had assisted in writing a book about Hess' visit and it is considered a good objective read about the whole affair.

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[SaparotRob]

Bf.110 IIRC

I know. It was a shout out of sorts to John Vasco and Jagdflieger.

 

[nuuumannn]

It was a shout out of sorts to John Vasco and Jagdflieger.

The thing that used to strike me as humorous was the number of people who used to come to the museum with bits of twisted metal claiming that they were parts of Hess' Bf 110. The thing must have been the size of a 747 with all the stuff that we saw that was allegedly from the aircraft. Some were quite big, too.

MoF 99

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

What kind of plane Hess flying again?

Paging John Vasco , cleanup on Aisle 9.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

The thing that used to strike me as humorous was the number of people who used to come to the museum with bits of twisted metal claiming that they were parts of Hess' Bf 110. The thing must have been the size of a 747 with all the stuff that we saw that was allegedly from the aircraft. Some were quite big, too.

View attachment 663636MoF 99

Pretty sure that was the air-conditioner on the KLM 707 I flew on from Amsterdam to Tehran via Athens and Beirut.

 

[nuuumannn]

Pretty sure that was the air-conditioner on the KLM 707 I flew on from Amsterdam to Tehran via Athens and Beirut.

Nah, that's what this was for...

MoF 114