What if: January 1942

[Konigstiger205]

Well the Panther wouldn't have appeared without the experience of the T34 but the Tiger would have still be made because development for a heavy tank was made since the late 30's but if it looked as the Tiger or be as good thats another thing...its clear that the T34 gave the Germans the idea for better thanks than the MKIV.And as for the invasion of the Soviet Union the key element its not making the same mistakes...if they would concentrate all their efforts on a single target, Moscow for example they would have better chances of winning but it would be a different Soviet Union...a stronger one this time...

 

[Parmigiano]

If we exclude a Russian attack to Germany, in my opinion there would have been a stall in Europe.
By 1942 the Allies were already having the initiative, huge US supplies were ready to move in UK etc.
So it is unlikely that Hitler could have launched a successful strike against UK
True, there was the Fw190 and the 109 with extra range vs 1940, but still there was no strategic bomber force, and the RAF was fully equipped with Spitfires with more effective armament than 1940.

But the 1943 allied air offensive would probably have been doomed, because the Luftwaffe would have been able to line up about the double of the fighters available in 'real' 1943.

So, no invasion in 1944, no breaks in the kammerhuber radar line (hence better deployment of the defending fighters), industrial production in better situation (no need for dispersal, better assembling and all we can easily see) more time to develop jet machines etc.

Probably Hitler would have focused on the basic industrial supply targets, either east europe or Africa for oil and north Europe for steel.

I see a Nazi controlled Europe mainland, UK as fortress supported by US to turn down any potential nazi idea to cross the Atlantic and Stalin looking east: Japan between the hammer and the anvil for a while, then once the 'rising sun' is eliminated the two Big powers to continue with a direct war in far east for supremacy. Impossible for me to assess out the importance of the 'Cina variable' in this scenario.
Maybe UK could have avoided the de-facto loss of the colonies (India, Burma etc.) by fighting this Russia-US war on the US side

 

[plan_D]

An interesting scenario.

I believe the come the spring of '42, the Soviet war machine would feel capable of assaulting the axis forces in Europe and this they would do. Germany would have not made another attempt on Great Britain but would continue the Battle of the Atlantic in an attempt to strangle her.

The German ground forces would not be largely occupied in North Africa. I don't believe that Germany in any sense would believe that the Soviet Union would remain loyal to any treaty. The Afrika Korps could well be an army and Rommel would have a larger pool of supply causing huge doubt in Allied victory there; I believe that unless Britain was willing to risk pulling troops from India then Cairo would fall.

The Germans would station the vast majority of their forces in the east of the Axis Empire - into these forces would pile the Soviet forces. The Soviets had already cut their head off of their general staff and had been given no way of learning the mobile warfare doctrine again. The Germans on the other hand have the experience of mobile war and the theory to back it up; the German armour would have the Tiger (which was in development since 1939) and most likely the Pz.IV Ausf F/2 because of the heavy British armour encountered in the desert.

The Soviet military would have larger numbers of T-34s and KV-1s but I believe they would fall into many German traps laid as the front seemed to collapse, only to close in around them. The Soviet assault would falter then halt, then be turned back in quick time.

Then I believe the German forces would replicate their true path, especially if Hitler did become insane in this alternate scenario.

The battle for North Africa would probably become close to defeat but if the supplies sent to Russia were sent to North Africa instead, then victory could be gained by the Allies.

 

[Njaco]

Good stuff, Plan.

I get the feeling everyone thinks that if Germany didn't attack,that Stalin would?

 

[Thorlifter]

Agreed. My proposal would be keeping Germany out of Africa. Thus all those supplies would be available in Europe to fortify, attack, posture, whatever. If Germany were to fortify up, it would be imperative that they capture the oil fields in Romania. If they didn't, Stalin could cut off his supply to Germany from the "treaty", and Germany would be stuck again without oil. No oil, no war machine.

Also, with those extra supplies, the next target would have to be England. No England, no two front war. Imagine the U-boats and pocket battleships roaming the north Atlantic, heck, the whole Atlantic unopposed by the royal navy. Now you have the U.S. having one hell of a problem supplying England. Now the U.S. would have to divert some of her main warships to the Atlantic, thus weakening the U.S. force in the Pacific.

I'm not saying it would be successful since it's been pointed out the British forces would be stronger too, but that's how I would see it play out.

 

[Freebird]

The Germans should have tried to knock UK out of war before invasion of Russia.

The Germans needed to launch their attack RIGHT away, as soon as France fell, they might have had a decent chance.

The German Navy was never strong enough to invade UK. And would always have to give control of the seas to the RN. Battle of Britain round 2 in 1942 would have been an eye opener with the Fw190 involved.

Correct. The big problem was that they lost 2/3 of their destroyer force invading Norway. Without enough destroyers they can't clear the British subs out of the channel to prevent them from torpedoing invasion barges

Maybe UK was at war but we weren't his ideological enemy or the demons of his dreams. Stalin was. The Soviets were weak in 41 so why not have a bash? Before they get strong and invade first....

Good stuff, Plan.

I get the feeling everyone thinks that if Germany didn't attack,that Stalin would?

Absolutely. There is some {Russian} historical evidence thats what Stalin planned to do.

Hitler was about 2 months too late launching "Sealion" and also 2 months late in his invasion of Greece. This put "Barbarossa" back two months, if he could have invaded Russia in early May he would have had a much better chance of success.

 

[Lucky13]

Also, IF he'd decided to invade Sweden as with Norway and Denmark and with Finland on their side, the Baltic Sea would have pretty much become an inland "lake"....could have caused a lot of problem for the Russians

 

[Njaco]

All good points. I didn't know Stalin planned to go after Germany. But at this point in 1942 what would be Germany's strengths? Would the Navy be stronger? Would Graf Zeppelin be completed?

I think North Africa would have to be settled. Hitler was already a year into that campaign.

And wasn't Rumania a partner at this time? Would there be a need to take the oil fields?

Some stats:

Total import oil for Germany:
1941 - 2807,000 metric tons
1942 - 2359,000 metric tons

Total of oil for year:
1941 - 8485,000 metric tons
1942 - 8965,000 metric tons

Used for Year:
1941 - 7305,000 metric tons
1942 - 6483,000 metric tons

Total production oil for Russia:
1941 - 33 million metric tons
1942 - 22 million metric tons

So if oil reserves are boosted in the 6 months from June 1941 to Jan 1942, Germany would be in afar better shape regarding oil if part of that Russian production is imported to Germany as per the "Barbarossa Treaty"?

 

[plan_D]

I don't think that North Africa would be decided by 1942. The Germans and British would both have increased forces in the region, and I believe it would be a similar progress as reality. Or, possibly, could be turned against the Germans if the British managed to increase the supply and force of the 8th Army with the Artic Convoy material before the Germans managed to bulk up the Italian forces in the area.

Germany would have a greater reserve of oil, but the Soviet Union certainly would invade the Axis Empire. At that time the German oil production is not largely important because of the quick decision made on the Eastern Front - it would be make or break within the first few months, and it would be the oil reserves that would be used. And it would be the German handling of the invasion ... if Hitler decided that German forces should hold every inch, they would lose; if however Hitler allowed his generals free roam then the Soviet Union would be turned back and defeated in massive numbers.

I don't think the invasion of the Soviet Union had a large affect on German naval production (I could be wrong), so I believe that Graf Zeppelin would not be completed. The Atlantic and North-West Europe would be no different either, except the several thousand Hurricanes and Spitfires sent to the Soviet Union could be sent to the CBI or North Africa instead.

The Soviets would suffer as a result of no lend-lease ... and the Germans would be able to inflict heavy casualties on the Soviets, which they could not yet replace.

 

[Freebird]

All good points. I didn't know Stalin planned to go after Germany. But at this point in 1942 what would be Germany's strengths? Would the Navy be stronger? Would Graf Zeppelin be completed?

Graf Zeppelin was suspended in mid 1940 when almost complete, it should have been possible to finish it by late 1940 {plus some months working-up the ship training