Hi Burmese,
>Now in a p-47 you cannot roll as fast, but you can dive much faster, equal evasive chances. If you are hit, chances of survival are 70/30 in your favour.
Interesting approach
If you're talking about probabilities, you should however take not only the damage resistance and evasive ability, but also the firepower of the two types into account:
Fw 190A-8: 5.5 MW firepower
P-47D: 2.3 MW firepower
(Firepower measured in total muzzle power, or the sum of kinetic and chemical energy of the projectiles per unit of time)
With regard to your comparison, that means that the odds of the Fw 190A-8 going down to being hit by the P-47D is only half of that of the P-47 being hit by the Focke-Wulf (assuming your underlying assumption is that their damage resistance is equal).
Looking at your numbers, I could imagine they are intended as follows:
1st burst kill ratio against ...
Fw 190A: 25%, P-47D: 25%
2nd burst kill ratio against ...
Fw 190A: 25%, P-47D: 5% (due to better evasive capabilities)
However, as modified by the firepower ratio of roughly 2:1, this would become for example:
1st burst kill ratio against ...
Fw 190A: 25%, P-47D: 50%
2nd burst kill ratio against ...
Fw 190A: 25%, P-47D: 10%
So the odds are 50/50 for the Fw 190, but only 40% survival, 60% defeat for the P-47.
(I'm aware that yours was just a simple thought experiment, but I think it was a good example for the influence of quantified factors. I certainly don't consider the resulting figures to be the final word on the topic!
Regards,
Henning (HoHun)