Geoffrey Sinclair
Staff Sergeant
- 932
- Sep 30, 2021
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Very informative. Another good book is Paul Kennedy's Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. His theory is Hitler was forced to invade Poland out of economic necessity, as much as ideology. Germany needed Poland's gold reserves and resources.A lot of the early analysis of the German economy was based on the Wagenfuehr indexes which indicated Germany mobilised late. In fact Germany was heavily mobilised before the war with the Nazis doing major deficit spending and fiddling the books with things like the MEFO loans, but consumer goods remained scarce. In 1940 the German government was spending more on loan repayments and interest than on the war. To build a modern 1930's war machine the Nazis needed oil and lighter metals which meant generating foreign exchange while investing in ways, like synthetic oil and rubber, to create the desired autarky.
The general point was by running the economy as hard as possible to rearm it was very hard to generate foreign exchange. With industry committed to large, secure, government orders there was little capacity or incentive to look overseas for more. German exports were worth 13,483,000 marks in 1929, bottoming at 4,167,000 in 1934, rising to 5,911,000 marks in 1937 before falling again. The Nazis drove hard bargains for raw materials as their price for support in the Spanish civil war. So the economists make the point the occupations of Austria and then Czechoslovakia and the attack on Poland had the lack of foreign exchange as an important driver.
Pre war there were incentives to employ people, which continued into the war, minimal rationalisation of supply, the same component could cost twice as much from different suppliers, little communication of the better ways, the continual interference of the military demanding small changes, then the deliberate cut backs in 1941, which makes the late 1942 increases look better than they should. The fact in things like aircraft the switch to smaller, lighter aircraft means the numbers look better but not if you go by airframe weight. Pre war and early in the war if someone reported a better way of doing things they simply found their quota raised, the state took all the benefit.
Speer helped remove the inefficiencies, aided by the obvious necessity for more production. The economy's resilience was helped by having more factory space and machine tools than were needed, indeed Germany exported many machine tools during the war. In any case there were the tools looted from France etc., these mainly helped the allies, since when the Germans tried to transfer production to the factories in occupied areas many of the key tools were in storage in Germany.
According to Richard Overy the output per head for the arms industry looked like, 1939 100, 1940 87.6, 1941 75.9 (provisional figure), 1942 99.6, 1943 131.6, 1944 160.0 (minimum). The western allies had a large pool of unemployed plus women normally kept out of the work force to fill gaps as they mobilised, Germany did not, giving the predictable result, a reduction in economic efficiency as people were pulled out of their usual jobs and put into the military. Germany went from 1.4 million to 5.6 million the military June 1939 to June 1940, the total civil work force fell by around 3.4 million mostly due to an extra 0.9 million foreign workers. In June 1939 there were 14.6 million working women in Germany, mainly those working on their family farms, in October 1944 that was up to 14.9 million. In millions, employment changes from June 1939 to June 1944, civil: German men -10.3, German women +0.2, foreign/PoW +6.8, military +7.7, there was also a 3.3 million cumulative loss of people to the war, up from 1.7 million in June 1943.
The BMW801 aero engine in 1940 took 5,145 kg of raw materials and 2,400 hours of labour, in 1944 it was 2,790 kg of raw materials and 1,250 hours of labour. Henschel made a 64% saving when building engines between 1939 and 1943, in 1942 Junkers improved Ju88 production efficiency by 30%. In May 1943 each ton of munitions used less than half the iron and steel, a sixth of the aluminium and half the copper compared with 1941. Early raw material allocations were set on an industry wide basis, not product, controls were slack enough that the Messerschmitt organisation made aluminium step ladders for example, there were also lightweight shelters made intended for the troops in the desert.
Remember the German aircraft production figures in 1941 were reduced by the Bf110/Me210 fiasco and the change over to new models. Also while the USSBS says 1940 production was 10,371 only rising to 10,501 in 1941 the number of transports trainers and miscellaneous aircraft fell from 1,373 to 561.
According to Richard Overy the output per head for the arms industry looked like, 1939 100, 1940 87.6, 1941 75.9 (provisional figure), 1942 99.6, 1943 131.6, 1944 160.0 (minimum). The western allies had a large pool of unemployed plus women normally kept out of the work force to fill gaps as they mobilised, Germany did not, giving the predictable result, a reduction in economic efficiency as people were pulled out of their usual jobs and put into the military.
Very informative. Another good book is Paul Kennedy's Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. His theory is Hitler was forced to invade Poland out of economic necessity, as much as ideology. Germany needed Poland's gold reserves and resources.
This expensive production issue is a theme in German war materiel almost to the end. The original designs are excellent in many cases, down to small details, but difficult to mass produce and sometimes to maintain. Probably one of the big reasons they relied so heavily on the Bf 109 was that this was one example where they eventually figured out how to make the production very efficient and reduce the number of man-hours quite a bit (I've seen estimates a low as 4,000 hours for a late model 109, compared to 18,000 for a Spitfire, though I'm certain these figures are a bit cherry picked, somebody can correct me based on versions etc. I know they made a ton of Spit V).
Bf 109 was an early design. These were easy to make from day one, not something that they eventually figured out how to efficiently produce.
Germany also made 20000 Fw 190s, Ju 88 in 15 thousand pcs, He 111s, Ju 52s and Ju 87s in thousands each - I'd say that an eye for mass production was always present.
We can just imagine shaking of heads among the German production engineers that took peek on insides of Spitfire, P-47 or P-38, to say nothing about the 4-engined stuff, especially the bombers with turbochargers.
My understanding is that the number of man hours to produce the Bf 109 reduced precipitously from the early days. No doubt this did benefit from it being an early design.
Yes they did work it out in several cases, but there are also counter examples. The Panzer Mk VI, the Me 262 and the Arado 234, Ju 188 and 388, Me 410, Fw-190D variant... the Panzer Mk V was produced in fairly large numbers (about 6,000) but at great expense in both material and man-hours... and they were prone to break down and difficult to maintain, especially the earlier variants. And the halftracks Shortround6 mentioned.
What do you mean by that?
Can you expand on this a bit? Germany already had women working in the factories? They didn't have a reserve of unemployed workers?
True to an extent, but I think all the heavily mass produced German designs were early war designs, whereas you don't see some German equivalent of something like the Hellcat appearing in the mid or later war.Holds true for many designs, both Allied and Axis.
Your original sentence:
The original designs are excellent in many cases, down to small details, but difficult to mass produce and sometimes to maintain.
I tried to point out that that's a too wide brush to paint, and flatly wrong for mass of hardware Germany produced.
I agree, many other factors...(Fw 109D entered production in late 1944, it was little more than another engine bolted to the firewall of the Fw 190A-8 + the tail plug; Ju 188 and 388 still used the mass-produced Ju 88 wings and fuselage; Germany was dialing down the non-fighters past 1943; Me 262 was held up because engines were not ready; there is also indeed a thing of round-the-clock bombing in 1944-45)
Maybe the hydromatic supercharger was too good, it bred complacency. Turbochargers seem to have been a huge pain in the ass on the fighters though with a long teething phase. They seemed to work out better in bombers (and airliners).Complicated to produce when compared with what Germans were making.
Something like Hellcat does not solve any of German problems. They were tying to introduce 'reactive' powered fighters by time Hellcat was in series production.True to an extent, but I think all the heavily mass produced German designs were early war designs, whereas you don't see some German equivalent of something like the Hellcat appearing in the mid or later war.
Maybe the hydromatic supercharger was too good, it bred complacency. Turbochargers seem to have been a huge pain in the ass on the fighters though with a long teething phase. They seemed to work out better in bombers (and airliners).
Some very significant designs, Panzer Mk V for example and VI, both suffered from this problem, and I'd argue most of the mid to later-war German aircraft too. Part of the pattern is that many types which were very good initially but should have been replaced never were. Of course, many other issues were also factors so I can't call this a fact or even fully a theory. It's just a pattern I believe I've noticed.
True to an extent, but I think all the heavily mass produced German designs were early war designs, whereas you don't see some German equivalent of something like the Hellcat appearing in the mid or later war.
Germany certainly had plenty of women working in factories and offices, the point is Nazi Germany had close to 100% peace time employment in 1939, in June 1939 Britain reported 1,270,000 unemployed while having 5,094,000 women in the work force or looking for work. In June 1943 it was 7,253,000 million women employed (461,000 in the military), with the note 2 part time jobs are counted as 1 full time. Britain's civil work force went from 18 million in June 1939 to 17.4 million in June 1943, then it began declining.Can you expand on this a bit? Germany already had women working in the factories? They didn't have a reserve of unemployed workers?
I'd think even outside of the notion of slave labor from places like France and Poland, I would think they had reserves of unemployed people in foreign countries they were allied with like in the Balkans that could at least do farm work if not factory work.
Something like Hellcat does not solve any of German problems. They were tying to introduce 'reactive' powered fighters by time Hellcat was in series production.
Hydromatic was the drive of the S/C, not the S/C itself. Other people's 2-speed units were, in the end, just as useful.
Granted, Germans lagged with introduction of 2-stage superchargers for service use (military and/or transport/passenger A/C), despite knowing the advantages of these already by mid-1930s.
What was the ratio between the easy-to-produce and hard-to-produce mid to late-war German aircraft?
Both jet- and rocket-powered.I guess that depends what you mean precisely by "something like Hellcat" - what I mean is something produced in the mid-war which is incrementally better than the opposition aircraft and that is built to be easy to maintain and can instantly be put into large scale production. The Germans had one example similar to this, arguably (Fw 190). The US had F6F, P-51, F4U and P-47 all coming online in the mid-war... plus P-38 gradually being debugged.
I'm not sure what you mean by "reactive powered" do you mean jets or rockets?
I think you knew what I meant. Hydromatic 'transmission' S/C were arguably better than the 2- speed, the latter seemed to require considerable adjustment and were often falling a little short, which is why the Allies developed 2 stage.
Just off the top of my head, the Germans failed to produce any militarily significant mid- to late war aircraft in enough numbers. Fw 190 is probably the closest success story but it came a bit before the mid-war (depending on where you place that) started to have some trouble when the two stage Spitfires, Mustangs etc. and the P-47 arrived, especially at higher altitudes.
Again, I'd ask about what types specifically were supposed to be hard to produce - whack-a-mole is really not my type of a game.part of this problem seems to be with the Jets, 262 was flying in the mid-war but was never produced in sufficient numbers. They were after all extremely sophisticated and bleeding edge just on the engine level. But there were others which could have possibly made a difference but lagged in production.
German bombers were quite devastating in the early war but by say, 1943 they were starting to become prohibitively vulnerable, they were not having the impact they had in the early war, at least not in the West. That's why they switched to using Fw 190s as fighter bombers, but these theoretically may have been better suited in a higher altitude variant for air defense / superiority.
An effective fast bomber in 1943-44 could have been a real help for the Germans IMO. So would a longer ranged fighter.
Most jets of that day and age used two engines because the engines did not produce enough power.It might be argued that LW failed to insist on a 1-engined jet fighters already in 1943, that avoids the engines' production bottleneck by a good deal.
Neither F4U nor F6F bring anything to the Luftwaffe. It will be much harder to produce these, not easier. P-38 is a self-inflicted wound for the Germans had they tried to replicate it for production. P-47 to be fast produced?
BMW 003 thrust of 7.8 kN. Jumo 004B, that powered Me 262, 8.7 kN.Most jets of that day and age used two engines because the engines did not produce enough power.
Jets like the He178, Gloster G.40, He162, etc. could operate with a single engine due to their size but it would take more time for the Germans to develop an engine powerful and reliable enough - time they simply did not have.
I forget which German aviation person/expert it was that is supposed to have realized the war was lost when he examined an shot down P-47 and it's R-2800 engine.
He realized the Germans could not manufacture a copy of the R-2800 using existing German manufacturing technology. This is in reference to the castings, forgings and machine finishing used and less hand labor. The Americans could build R-2800s using less labor/machine time that the Germans could build an equivalent engine.
Right. Only the jet really worked out, as we know...Both jet- and rocket-powered.
Neither F4U nor F6F bring anything to the Luftwaffe. It will be much harder to produce these, not easier. P-38 is a self-inflicted wound for the Germans had they tried to replicate it for production. P-47 to be fast produced? P-38 and P-47 easier to maintain than Fw 190 - I'd argue not.
Fuel quantity for the needs of these aircraft?
P-51 was not better than the Fw 190, it became better once a 2-stage Melrin was installed on the P-51. There is no comparable or better engine in production in Germany until well into 1944; when that happened, the Fw 190 morphed into Ta 152. Compares well with P-47, too, and it is better than the P-38. P-38 is equaled by Fw 190D-9.
Yes, Allied fighters have greater range, but for the LW that's a moot point past 1943.
Actual German fighter that was able to beat the best Allied fighters was the Me 262. German ability to produce these is directly dependent on their engines' production. A yet another piston-engined fighter can't beat the Allied best, even if it existed, since it will be badly outnumbered.
It might be argued that LW failed to insist on a 1-engined jet fighters already in 1943, that avoids the engines' production bottleneck by a good deal.
Nope, hydromatic drive was not automatically better. They were better between the two rated altitudes, while offering no advantage above the rated height. Even a 1-speed supercharged Merlin III or V-1710-33 was making better power above 5 km than the Db 601A with variable-speed S/C.
2-stage superchargers were developed to much improve the engines' power at high altitudes, and were a way to cancel out the displacement disadvantage vs. bigger engines (Merlin vs. DB 601/605 case in point). Note that DB went for 2-stage superchargers, too, late in war so they can equal or beat the Allied best above 25000 ft.
A mid-war design is not automatically better than the early-war design. That was true in all countries.
Fw 190 didn't have a proper engine to equal the Allied best above 20000 ft - not the fault of the Fw 190 design itself. Spitfire IX and Merlin Mustangs were a version of an earlier type, but with a considerable upgrade wrt. powerplant, not the whole new A/C.
A grave mistake would've been to simply start producing eg. Me 309 instead of Fw 190 or Bf 109 just because he former was a later design.
Germany didn't made the bigger later designs mostly because of two reasons: either they really didn't brought a material advantage vs. previous designs, or, in case with many 2-engined aircraft, the wholesale switch towards fighter production in 1944 cut short the production runs.
Again, I'd ask about what types specifically were supposed to be hard to produce - whack-a-mole is really not my type of a game.
Germany bite off more than they chew by late 1941. Concentration of their bombers and fighters in just one front, while much weakening another front was out of questions. As Americans found out in 1943, unescorted bomber is a vulnerable bomber, despite the B-17s and -24s being much better bombers than He 111s or Ju 88s.
Granted, the Luftwaffe program for the new bombers went badly wrong (even if the Do 217 was decent) - Ju 288 and He 177 were duds. The early, small Ju 288 with BMW 801s would've probably worked well.
It was also probably too bad that He 219 was not designed 1st as a fast bomber, same with metal-clad Ta 154.
Fw 190 + DB 601/605 + two drop tanks = LR escort fighter, but that never dawned on the LW.
I forget which German aviation person/expert it was that is supposed to have realized the war was lost when he examined an shot down P-47 and it's R-2800 engine.
He realized the Germans could not manufacture a copy of the R-2800 using existing German manufacturing technology. This is in reference to the castings, forgings and machine finishing used and less hand labor. The Americans could build R-2800s using less labor/machine time that the Germans could build an equivalent engine.