WW3?

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Thus in the future I do not see nations squaring off against nations. I do, however, see TRANSNATIONAL IDEOLOGICAL GROUPS fighting global wars WITHIN nations.


I could see that morso than a global conflict myself.A confliction of ideals of a direction of government already prevails in this country and I am sure in others as well?
 
I'm afraid that Europe will be drawn into a conflict and it will center around the mid-east

Europe is looking pretty Anti-muslim now.....Swiss and no more Minerets....France now veils and so on ( I do agree)

Remember Mohammad Imadinnerjacket has missiles that can reach Europe...and the fine US president just canceled all those missile defense plans for Europe

Israel is not worried to much as they have the Arrow and improved Arrow........oh yes and nukes
 
what about the possibility of a nuclear device stolen by a terrorist cell hiding in China, or India, and detonating it in say Washington.

How do you see the US reacting to that......

We live in a dangerous and unstable world. It is VERY dangerous to assume that all is calm and quiet. The maelstrom could happen any time, any place. The best we can do us to be firm, but fair, and to maintain our vigilance
 
To be honest I am more worried about the world climate and what will happen once the magnetic poles shift.
 
Surely you are kidding. Or perhaps high?
 

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None of the above Matt. The poles are gonna shift, they've done so since the birth of this planet, it's just a matter of time until next time it happens and at this point it's long overdue. And when the poles do shift, the earths magnetic field will weaken, leaving us more exposed to the sun's rays. And this is particularly bad in the case of a geomagnetic storm, which often occurs everytime the sun's poles shift, which is every 22 years, as apposed to the average of 780,000 years for the earth.

Last time we experienced a geomagnetic storm was in 1989, and it had some pretty dramatic effects:
On March 13, 1989 a severe geomagnetic storm caused the collapse of the Hydro-Québec power grid in a matter of seconds as equipment protection relays tripped in a cascading sequence of events. Six million people were left without power for nine hours, with significant economic loss. The storm even caused auroras as far south as Texas. The geomagnetic storm causing this event was itself the result of a coronal mass ejection, ejected from the Sun on March 9, 1989

In August 1989, another storm affected microchips, leading to a halt of all trading on Toronto's stock market.

With the earth's magnetic field weakened the effects will be much worse. How bad I have no idea, but I hope it wont be too bad. We're pretty darn reliant on electronics these days and seeing that a geomagnetic storm hitting the earth with a weakened protective magnetic field could fry each and everyone of our priced electronic gadgets then it would almost be like being sent back to the stone age.
 
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Just so we are clear. You think that this threat is more urgent than regional crisis and advocate redirecting our current $660Billion 2010 military budget where?
 
...apparently it needs to be re-directed into Canada, since that is the only country affected by these geomagnetic storms. Something to do with all the moose, I take it.
 
Matt308 said:
Just so we are clear. You think that this threat is more urgent than regional crisis and advocate redirecting our current $660Billion 2010 military budget where?
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Why would you touch the military budget, what good would that do? Esp. seeing as there really might be no way to fully protect our electronics against these magnetic storms.

As for regional crisis, well to be honest I don't see WW3 breaking out anytime soon. We were close in the 60's, but now terrorism is a much greater threat.

But yeah, this thing about the poles actually worries me abit.
 
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Soren said:
Why would you touch the military budget, what good would that do? Esp. seeing as there really might be no way to fully protect our electronics against these magnetic storms.

As for regional crisis, well to be honest I don't see WW3 breaking out anytime soon. We were close in the 60's, but now terrorism is a much greater threat.
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Our posts clashed.

I agree with your response.
 
RabidAlien said:
...apparently it needs to be re-directed into Canada, since that is the only country affected by these geomagnetic storms. Something to do with all the moose, I take it.
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Canada just happened to be directly in the path of the shockwave, it could hit anywhere.

From August 28 until September 2, 1859, numerous sunspots and solar flares were observed on the sun, the largest flare occurring on the September 1. A massive CME headed directly at Earth due to the solar flare and made it within eighteen hours — a trip that normally takes three to four days. On September 1 – 2, the largest recorded geomagnetic storm occurred. The horizontal intensity of geomagnetic field was reduced by 1600 nT as recorded by the Colaba observatory near Bombay, India. Telegraph wires in both the United States and Europe shorted out, some even causing fires. Auroras were seen as far south as Hawaii, Mexico, Cuba, and Italy — phenomena that are usually only seen near the poles. This was the 1859 solar superstorm.
 
Some more is written about it here:
Balfour Stewart - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

While much attention has been focused on the Carrington Super Flare, which occurred on September 1, 1859 and the associated magnetic storm for which reached the Earth on September 2, 1859, there was an earlier super flare on August 28, 1859, which was documented on the self-recording magnetographs at the Kew Observatory and described by Balfour Stewart [5][6] in a paper presented to the Royal Society on November 21, 1861.

It is unnecessary to enter into further particulars regarding this meteor, as the description of it given by observations at places widely apart have been collected together by Professor E. Loomis, and published in a serious of papers communicated to the American Journal of Science and Arts. I shall only add that, both from the European, the American, and the Australian accounts, there appear to have been two great displays, each commencing at nearly the same absolute time, throughout the globe, —the first on the evening of the 28th of August, and the second on the early morning of the 2nd of September, Greenwich time.

Magnetic disturbances of unusual violence and very wide extent were observed simultaneously with these displays. These were recorded more or less frequently at the various observatories; but at Kew there is the advantage of a set of self-recording magnetographs (the property of the Royal Society), which are in constant operation.

As a description of these instruments has already been published[7] in the volume of the Reports of the British Association for 1859, it is only necessary here to mention that they afford the means of obtaining a continuous photographic register of the state of the three elements of the earth's magnetic force—namely, the declination, and the horizontal and vertical intensity. Reduced representations of these traces furnished by these instruments during the great disturbance under discussion accompany this paper; and it will now be necessary to give a short description of these.

Stewart goes on the make the following observation.

I now proceed to notice some of the peculiarities of this magnetic storm.

It appears that we have two distinct well-marked disturbances, each commencing abruptly and ending gradually, the first of which began on the evening of August 28 and the second on the early morning of September 2. These two great disturbances correspond therefore in point of time to the two great auroral displays already alluded to.

The second disturbance is now known as the Carrington Super Flare, while the first disturbance is unnamed. As Stewart recorded and described this disturbance, this event will be referred to as the Stewart Super Flare in this discussion.

At the November 11, 1859 meeting of the Royal Astronomical Society, Richard Carrington presented a paper[8] describing his observations of the super flare which occurred on September 1, at 11:18 GMT and later named in his honor. In what appears to be an editorial addition made after the meeting the follow observation was appended in parenthesis.

(Mr. Carrington exhibited at the November Meeting of the Society a complete diagram of the disk of the sun at the time, and copies of the photographic records of the variations of the three variations of the three magnetic elements, as obtained at Kew, and pointed out that a moderate but very marked disturbance took place at about 11h 20m A.M., Sept. 1st, of short duration; and that towards four hours after midnight there commenced a great magnetic storm, which subsequent accounts established to be considerable in the southern as in the northern hemisphere. While the contemporary occurrence may deserve noting, he would not have it supposed that he even leans towards hastily connecting them. "One swallow does not make a summer.")

From this addendum, it is clear that Richard Carrington was not willing to commit professionally to connecting the magnetic disturbance with the event he had observed on the surface of the sun even though they occurred at nearly identical times. He had indeed displayed the magnetographs at the Royal Astronomical Society meeting. The time of 11:20 GMT is good agreement with other reports but the time of 4:00 GMT on September 2, 1859 for the commencement of the magnetic storm is an hour earlier than reported by Stewart.

Stewart also reported[6] on the magnetic disturbance which occurred at the same time as the event observed by Richard Carrington.

But, beside these two remarkable disturbances into which it divided itself, this great storm comprehends a minor disturbance, not approaching these two in extent, but yet possessing an interest peculiar to itself, which entitles it to be mentioned. On September 1, a little before noon, Mr. R.C. Carrington happened to be observing, by means of a telescope, a large spot which might then be seen on the surface of our luminary, when a remarkable appearance presented itself, which he described in a communications to the Royal Astronomical Society. (Richard Carrington's paper is then quoted at length.) On calling at Kew Observatory a day or two afterwards, Mr. Carrington learned that at the very moment when he had observed this phenomena the three magnetic elements at Kew were simultaneously disturbed. If no connexion had been known to subsist between these two classes of phenomena, it would, perhaps, be wrong to consider this in any other light than a casual coincidence; but since General Sabine has proved that a relation subsists between magnetic disturbances and sun spots, it is not impossible to suppose that in this case our luminary was taken in the act. This disturbance occurred as nearly as possible at 11h 15m A.M. Greenwich mean time, on September 1, 1859, affecting all the elements simultaneously, and commencing quite abruptly.

By citing the previous research of Edward Sabine, which established a correlation between sunspots and magnetic storms, Stewart was able to correctly advance the theory that the event observed by Richard Carrington and the magnetic disturbance which was recorded at the same time were in fact connected. The magnetic phenomena which occurred at about 11:18 GMT on September 1, 1859 are now known as a Solar Flare Effect (SFE) or a Magnetic Crochet, but the connection would not be proven for another 80 years[9]. The SEF is a sudden ionosphere disturbances caused by soft X-rays and Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) driven enhancement of the ionosphere current vortices responsible for the regular daily variation observed on magnetometer traces. SFE are mostly observed in locations close to the sub-solar point (i.e. the point on earth when the sun is overhead) and can only be observed from stations in the sunlit hemisphere at the time of the solar flare. Using Stewart's times, the magnetic storm associated with the Carrington Super Flare took 17 hours and 45 minutes to reach the Earth.

Stewart reported that the magnetic storm from the Steward Supper Flare, began at 22:30 GMT on the evening of August 28, 1859 as recorded by self-recording magnetographs at the Kew Observatory. Assuming that the transit time for the first super flare was the same as the second or 17 hours and 45 minutes, the Steward Supper Flare occurred at about 04:45 GMT on the morning of August 28, 1859. As the Solar Flare Effect can only be observed from the sunlit hemisphere the question becomes, what time was sunrise at the Kew Observatory on the morning of August 28, 1859?

The coordinates for Kew Observatory are (51°29'N, 0°17'W). Using the US Naval Observatory "Sun or Moon Rise/Set Table for One Year" calculator,sunrise on the morning of August 28, 1859 sunrise was 05:06GMT. The Kew Observatory was still 21 minutes from sunrise and the Solar Flare Effect would not have been registered by the self-recording magnetographs at the Kew Observatory.

Steward did not publish the magnetograph records for the morning of August 28, 1859. While it is extremely unlikely, the original magnetograph records for that date should be inspected to determine if any disturbance was recorded because of the uncertainties in timings and the nearness of sunrise.

In the time zone at GMT+7 in would have been 15 minutes to high noon on August 28. Any observatory situated at plus or minus two time zones would have been in an excellent position to observe the super flare and record the magnetic signature of Solar Flare Effect. Unfortunately in 1859 the Kew Observatory had the only self-recording magnetographs[7]. Other magnetic observatories were manually operated and typically only took readings at hourly intervals unless there was a magnetic storm, in which case readings were taken at 15 minute intervals. One such magnetic observatory was the Colaba Observatory on the Island of Colaba which is now part of Mumbai (Bombay), India at GMT+5.5. In a 2003 paper[10] the manually recorded magnetic readings from the Colaba Observatory for September 1, through September 2, 1859 were recalibrated and evaluated. No mention is made in this paper of reading before September 1 or any visual observations of the sun. After 150 years it is very unlikely that any additional data will surface but any reports of strange events about noon Asian time on August 28, 1859 would be of interest.
 
Soren said:
Wikipedia ofcourse ;)

The Colaba observatory in India was British btw.

The solarstorm of 1859 is well known though:
Solar storm of 1859 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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:lol: Interesting when the whole Guassian science was invented in 1835. Ability to measure to that quantitave degree just a few years later is historically phenomenal. Or BS. And your Wiki post is telling don't you think?
 
I don't think we need to fear the end of the world any time soon Flyboy2 ;)

In the movie 2012, which is complete sci-fi btw, something happened to the earth's core as-well I believe, which caused giant volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and sh*t right?

Worst thing that can happen in case of a solar storm in reality is that all our electronics fry up. Plus the weakened magnetic feld would leave us more exposed radiation from the sun.
 
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