WW3?

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Matt308 said:
Interesting when the whole Guassian science was invented in 1835. Ability to measure to that quantitave degree just a few years later is historically phenomenal. Or BS. And your Wiki post is telling don't you think?
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Well as we all know you can't trust blindly in Wikipedia So I don't know for sure about the 1600 nT, esp. also as my knowledge on Guassian science isn't exactly huge.

But I did find this:
1. ScienceDirect - Advances in Space Research : Dst of the Carrington storm of 1859
2. http://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...serid=10&md5=6a4dbde5eb6607a6b1ccde06c5bb6edd
 
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Oh i didn't believe any of that movies crap anyways.

The Earth went down hill because neutrinos from the sun began mutating. Anybody who knows about particle physics knows that neutrinos are some of the most weakly interacting particles in the universe, so weak in fact that a million of them go through your finger every second or so. In the movie, the neutrinos began carrying energy and then fried the Earth's core, but magically not the people... It was grade-A pseudophysics nonsense....

Also i'm not sure a solar storm of the magnitude you discribe could happen anytime soon. I might be wrong, and any physics and astronomy people please correct me, but the sun isn't going to evolve into a red giant for another few million years, so I'm not sure that massive solar storms could happen for a long, long time. The suns composition would have to change dramatically, and those things don't happen overnight haha
 
Agreed Flyboy2, but regarding the solar storms, well they won't get bigger than those recorded earlier I believe, but that's not the issue either. The problem is that when the earths magnetic poles shift it will weaken its protective magnetic field according to the scientists. And this weakening of the magnetic field would mean that another geomagnetic storm of the same magnitude as earlier ones could wreck a lot more havoc than ever before in history, even leaving entire continents without electric power and electronic machinery. And geomagnetic storms tend to happen around the time the sun's own poles start to shift. That's the issue.

Wether it will ever come to such a dramatic thing happening is anyone's guess, but it is worrying me abit.
 
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You can watch abit about solar storms in this documentary from Discovery channel (Remember this is assuming the absolute worst case scenario but doesn't take into account the shifting of the poles weakening earth's magnetic field), here's part one, the rest can be found on the right bar: View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIr6nfwpctA
 
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Have not read all the posts regarding the shifting of the Poles, but I would just say that the Poles rotate around the axis of the true poles all the time. The Magnetic axis rotates through about 12.5 degrees over roughly a 25 year period. Its position relative to true north is recorded in the Nautical almanac, and has been known and predicted for the best part of 500 years, if my memory serves me correctly
 

Not exactly "up" on it either, only breezed through the posts but I'm with ya' on this one Parsifal. It wobbles around all the time. Magnetic deviation has shifted from what it was when I started taking flying lessons (back in the 80s) to now. Not a lot, couple of degrees. Enough to get you really, really lost on a long flight.

But back to the shifting of the poles. While I agree it's a concern in the Macro, in the micro/our lifetime, I'm not the slightest worried. More worried about devaluation of cuirrency or defaulting on debt than that. In short, man made catastrophes look a lot more likely than something external (solar flares not withstanding).
 
Please don't confuse the slight magnetic rotation around the true geographical poles with a geomagnetic reversal, it's an entirely different deal. That the geomagnetic poles circle slightly around the geographical ones is entirely normal, it has been doing that all the time with no implications for our magnetic field and will continue to do so. A geomagnetic reversal will however significantly weaken our magnetic field, all the way down to 10% of its normal strength, and according to scientists it will be like this for over a thousand years - which is bad incase we get hit by another solar storm, which sadly seems to be a 50 to 100 year regularity.

On the positive side I have however also heard that radiation exposure wont be much of a factor seeing that despite our magnetic field being weakened our atmosphere will absorb most of the sun's radiaton anyway. Which means we can still safely be out in the sun. It is our electronic devices which are at stake.
 
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I dunno Soren, seems like something of a Black Swan. And predictiing those things is an impossible event. While I agree with you the magnetic poles will swap, 100% chance. The odds of it happening in our life time are relatively insignificant. When was the last time they swapped?

As for the solar storm, much better chance of that wrecking the electronic infrastructure and, even worse, the backed up data. However, like any storm, predicting what will be destroyed and what will not is an impossible action.Like a Hurricane, some stuff will get whacked, and some stuff won't. But the total destruction of the electronic infrastructure is very unlikely. Varying degrees of damage based on a multitude of factors is more likely.

More likely than the Solar Storm of 1859 is a smaller storm like the one that pasted Canada. My understanding of the 1859 storm is it was a once in every 500 years event while the storm that hit Canada was a more frequent event.
 
The problem is that we seem to very long overdue for the next reversal. So while we could infact be thousands of years away from the next one, it could on the other hand also be within the next year or two.
 
Soren said:
The problem is that we seem to very long overdue for the next reversal. So while we could infact be thousands of years away from the next one, it could on the other hand also be within the next year or two.
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Ya' just never know...hell with it, have a beer and forget about it.
 
Soren,
During the reversal, the magnetic field strength does not disappear, but it certainly gets confused.


From NASA - Earth's Inconstant Magnetic Field
 
What about a solar "kill shot"? Or a destructive meteorite? Or an explosive natural gas emission from under sea? Or mega-quake? Or the Polar ice shelves calving and creating a super-tsunamai? Or a super-volcano arising in the Aleutian Islands? Or a killer virus originating out the African jungle resulting in billions of people bleeding out with liquid organs? Or a Ukranian super-flu that is hidden underneath the H1N1 virus? Or an orbital collision from the outer reaches of the solar system? Or my underwear being too small for my fat azz? All are possible. The latter likely.
 

 
The thing the worries me abit about this is that it has reportedly been simulated in a computer model which found the next reversal to happen at around 2011 to 2014. Anyway don't get me wrong, it's not like I loose sleep at night because of it, not in any way, it's just interesting to think about sometimes and it's certainly a lot more plausible than WW3 happening anytime soon IMO.

As for virus pandemics, well it has to be something really killer to even threaten us the slightest, esp. with the hype going on in the media these days. My experience over the years tells me that it's only really bad when the news starts telling you to completely stay indoors and remain calm
 
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I have a plan for all of it (with exception of the underwear affect- local phenomina). It involves sitting down my basement with about 60 bottles of red wine (all the better to counter the radiation that might show up), beer and other sundry alcohols, any odds and ends of frozen foods that might be hanging around the house (there's usually a ton of it) and me and my fat ass on the couch watching Wolf Blizter lose his f-----g mind! Planning on shipping the wife and kid off to Italy if there is time too!

I've been waiting for the day for years, really, I have. For no better reason than the entertainment value.
 
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