A New Cold War?

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Are we on the brink of a new Cold War?

Russia's tensions with the West are at an all time high since the end of the Cold War. Tension with her former Republics is also rising as they are turning to Western influence and trying to get out from under the Russian sphere of influece.

Putin has threatened to point nukes at Europe again, in retaliation to the US putting a defensive anti nuclear missile system in Eastern Europe.

"if part of the United States' nuclear capability is situated in Europe and that our military experts consider that they represent a potential threat then we will have to take appropriate retaliatory steps. What steps? Of course we must have new targets in Europe."

Long range bomber flights have resumed, coming very close within NATO territories. In 1997 Russian fleet including an aircraft carrier sortied into the Med for the first time since the Soviet days.

What do you guys think?

 

[davparlr]

I certainly think Putin has an agenda and that is to be a major player in the world. Oil has fueled his power. He is willing to be major player even if it include blackmail, which I think he is plotting against the EU using oil, or bullying which I think he is trying against he unprotected countries of the old USSR. This should be confronted, which could be peaceably achieved if the free nations of the world stand together, something they hate to do. There will be no cold war if the rest of the world stands against it.

 

[syscom3]

Unlike the post WW2 years, there is no national consensus with the US and EU to contain the Russians.

As long as we mess around on Russia's borders, expand NATO and force a missle defense system upon a Europe that doesn't want it, then we will have troubles.

Don't do any of those, and there will be no problems with Russia.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

I agree Sys and yes I think Putin has an agenda - at the same time and as stated on other threads, we're dealing with a whole different "Bear" as compared to the Cold War years. Lenin and Marx (and I'm not talkin the actor and singer) have been put on the shelf. My belief is Russia has tasted capitalism and likes it (Ramerizzz chime in any time). I think when the current "guard" of Russia, Europe and the US changes, you'll see some "warming."

 

[Amsel]

Another cold war is unlikely in the same sense as the last cold war. It is highly unlikely that the Russian Federation will go back to communism. They are emerging from decades of economic and social woes to become a powerhouse. China has also became an economic powerhouse under it's psuedo commie-capitalist style of goverment. I think China leads the world in manufacturing now. But that is something that can be changed by boycotting chinese made goods.

As U.S. prestige and power slowly fade over the next few years, Russia and China will become more emboldened( as seen in S. Osettia). The ace in the hole that we have is we control the richest ,cheapest oilfield in the world. Which is Iraq. We are not selling them oil. They have to depend on more expensive and poorer quality oil from Venezuala and the Caspian sea. This is holding them back from becoming more dominant but it is also a bone of contention.

 

[JugBR]

i prefer to rhink positive: usa, russia, china and european union will work out there differences.

 

[Matt308]

I am worried that Russian economy benefits are split between the haves and have nots. There is no real middle class in Russia. And there is a huge portion of the population that longs for the communist days where wealth was redistributed to all. Social welfare programs provide a significant benefit for those who do not produce. Also, Russia is in a real population downfall that even state sponsored incentives cannot prevent precipitation. All of this adds up to a constituency that believes the gov't is their savior. Patriotic chest beating provides a common direction and focus for the masses and takes the collective minds off of the real internal political and economic issues.

In my humble opinion, this is analogous to what is happening with the the left of the US.

 

[pbfoot]

The same people that ran the country earlier are still in power its just a new look or as they say in advertising the New and Improved USSR. I sure hope there a new and improved Chamberlain

 

[Matt308]

Well said, Pb. Well said.

As I said in another thread, historical precedence indicates that russia is not beyond subjagating other nation states nor their own citizens. Even if that means millions of deaths to reach their ends. Perhaps russia is a domesticated beast today, but I personally am wary.

 

[drgondog]

Unlike the post WW2 years, there is no national consensus with the US and EU to contain the Russians.

As long as we mess around on Russia's borders, expand NATO and force a missle defense system upon a Europe that doesn't want it, then we will have troubles.

Don't do any of those, and there will be no problems with Russia.

If that were true, Russia would not have continued fueling Iran's nuc program, armed Iran and Syria with their latest anti aircraft technology, resisted every meaningful sanction of Iran, resisted all attempts by the US to compel Iraq to live up to the inspections that they agreed to in 1991.

Putin has an agenda. It is clear now why Russia vigorously opposed Gerogia and Ukraine entry into NATO. Ukraine is next.

 

[Freebird]

Are we on the brink of a new Cold War?

What do you guys think?

Putin has an agenda. It is clear now why Russia vigorously opposed Gerogia and Ukraine entry into NATO. Ukraine is next.

Interesting take on this on talk radio, this was a "Poke in the eye" to Bush.

If you all remember, Bush visited Georgia, with it's Havard educated pro-Western President. Bush gave a speech saying that he wanted to bring Georgia into NATO. Georgia has also contributed the most troops to Iraq after US UK, {2,000+} and has also been willing to do the dirty work fighting there, unlike some other "participants".

If you consider the ex-Soviet Republics, Georgia was by far the most "pro-US". Some of the conservatives on the radio have advanced that this is a test demonstration - to all of the other ex-communist republics. It sends a message, if you try to join NATO or get cozy with the US, they will abandon you in your hour of need, and the most help you will get is a wringing of hands and expressions of "regret" as your country is crushed.

It seems in this test of wills, somebody just blinked....

Just what I heard today.

 

[Matt308]

Excellent point, Freebird. I hope the US blinks. While I have no belief other than the US would kick the $hit out of russia... what for? And at what cost. We don't need it. Let russian wallow in its own. Much easier to play russia's game of complaining to world bodies and soliciting world condemnation of thier supposed foe.

And I do believe Ukraine is next. Especially if there is even an inkling that of them garnering EU or NATO support. While the former will never happen, there will likely be a renewed push for the latter. And it will never br granted now. Too bad for Ukraine.

 

[SoD Stitch]

Once again, Matt hit the nail on the head.

However, that being said, it's pretty much up to Russia (read: Putin) as to whether or not there WILL be another Cold War; I don't think Putin wants another Cold War, but he does want a world where other Powers (in particular the US) will take him and his country seriously. It pretty much comes down to pride, good old Russian pride and, by extension, domestic political power within Russia. He will push others around, when necessary, but he doesn't want a full-blown confrontation with the West. I think you're right again, Matt, the Ukraine is next.

 

[Matt308]

Putin is focusing entirely too much on old soviet nemeses. He needs to check his south and east borders. He would do well to not piss off his future allies.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

I sure hope there a new and improved Chamberlain

And a new and improved RAF?

 

[wilbur1]

The problem i see is putin is mafioso and doesnt give sh##, he expects U.S. money and backing to bail him out, ever check out how much the russian mafia is here in the states? if not i say cut them off from all aide

 

[JugBR]

one think that no one could explain to me in a satisfactory way:

why nuclear weapons are allowed and poison gas dont ?

i think is ridiculous, you can´t poison the air that your enemy breathes but you can disintegrate them.

why dont outlaw nukes ?

 

[Maestro]

I once saw a documentary on Putin...

Don't forget that this guy is a former Red Army Colonel and KGB agent. He was really close to the power of the USSR (and later Russia) and the mafia until the death of Yeltsin... He is still pretty close to the mafia today.

Go back to communism ? I don't think so. But becoming a new "Russian Federation" with Comrade-President Vladimir Putin as their leader ? Yes, indeed.

 

[timshatz]

Oil is the new strategic asset. Whomever controls more of it, has the power formerly found in nukes. In that respect, I am less worried what Russia is going to do (looks like it will take control of Georgia as a satellite if not directly) than I am about what the US and Europe is going to do to increase it's access to more supplies.

Right now, Russia has far more access to oil directly and through defacto allies than it needs while the inverse is accurate for the US and Europe.

Next 5 years are going to be very interesting.

Cold war? Doubt it. This time, Russia has products the West needs.

 

[Kruska]

Oil is the new strategic asset.......Cold war? Doubt it. This time, Russia has products the West needs.

Hello timshatz,

One of very few truly analytic posts on this forum, I like it please keep it up.

Regards
Kruska