"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (1 Viewer)

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SaparotRob said:
I think you missed the turn back there.
Click to expand...

What turn is my question. What am I missing? Because it seems obvious to me that if we both warn and guarantee a ship's passage, it will dare Russia at a time when it simply cannot enforce its threat. Essentially, calling a bluff. What am I misreading?

I'd tell them "we're sailing this neutral ship into Odessa to pick up grain on this day" and tell them that if they attack it, there will be an issue. Hey, maybe a few F-15Es flying cover?

Open reply, anyone is welcome to grab my short hairs.
 
One suggestion I have seen is for UN checked ships to traverse between Turkey and Ukraine to pick up cargo. The trick
was to give Turkey a nominal fee or some other incentive to temporarily reflag each ship as Turkish. Further to that Turkey
could also temporarily badge the ships as Turkish naval transport vessels which would firmly put them in as NATO
equipment.

A provocation on one hand but a cast iron guarantee of what would happen if any are attacked. It would also be valid to provide
an escort of armed Turkish naval vessels.

As Thumpalumpacus noted - I call your bluff and raise you one NATO.
 
But very few, if any, African nations possess the ability to sweep the Black Sea clean of anything Russian in a matter of hours.

The USN, or the RN, would be a force that Putin would regret tangling with.

As it stands, the USN, RN and any other NATO nation is not a current belligerent - only Russia and Ukraine.
Add to that, Putin's insistence that his war is a "special operation" and not a declared war, and Article 19 of the Montreaux convention does not apply.

The U.S., legally can sail a Carrier group into the Black Sea if it wanted to, legally, even if Turkey objected.
 
GrauGeist said:
The USN, or the RN, would be a force that Putin would regret tangling with.
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USN definitely. The RN is a shadow of its former self. I'm reading now my new copy of Elizabeth's Navy and the decline is remarkable. What makes the RN formidable is the weight of NATO behind it, otherwise, it's a small fleet with at best a dozen active destroyers/frigates and a quarter dozen active attack submarines, with an equal number of both in refit or reserve. Imagine the size and strength of thr RN today if spending remained at over 4% of GDP.

U.K. Military Spending/Defense Budget 1960-2024

Military expenditures data from SIPRI are derived from the NATO definition, which includes all current and capital expenditures on the armed forces, including peacekeeping forces; defense ministries and other government agencies engaged in defense projects; paramilitary forces, if these are...
www.macrotrends.net www.macrotrends.net
 
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buffnut453 said:
Nothing really new in this article but I was intrigued by the headline. Unsurprisingly, Putin sees problems with Russia turning to the negotiating table while Ukraine is on the offensive...completely ignoring the fact that Ukraine is on the offensive INSIDE its own territory and that Ukraine wouldn't need to be fighting if Russia hadn't invaded:

www.bbc.com

Ukraine war: Putin says Russia does not reject peace talks

The Russian leader also sought to justify the arrest of critical voices, claiming they were harming the country from inside.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
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'In George Orwell's dystopian classic 1984, doublethink is the act of holding, simultaneously, two opposite, individually exclusive ideas or opinions and believing in both simultaneously and absolutely. Doublethink requires using logic against logic or suspending disbelief in the contradiction.'
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
What turn is my question. What am I missing? Because it seems obvious to me that if we both warn and guarantee a ship's passage, it will dare Russia at a time when it simply cannot enforce its threat. Essentially, calling a bluff. What am I misreading?

I'd tell them "we're sailing this neutral ship into Odessa to pick up grain on this day" and tell them that if they attack it, there will be an issue. Hey, maybe a few F-15Es flying cover?

Open reply, anyone is welcome to grab my short hairs.
Click to expand...
No, that turn back there you missed during the beer run.
Another joke crashes and burns.
 
GrauGeist said:
But very few, if any, African nations possess the ability to sweep the Black Sea clean of anything Russian in a matter of hours.

The USN, or the RN, would be a force that Putin would regret tangling with.

As it stands, the USN, RN and any other NATO nation is not a current belligerent - only Russia and Ukraine.
Add to that, Putin's insistence that his war is a "special operation" and not a declared war, and Article 19 of the Montreaux convention does not apply.

The U.S., legally can sail a Carrier group into the Black Sea if it wanted to, legally, even if Turkey objected.
Click to expand...
No, the US cannot, as the Bosphorus and Dardanelles are Turkish territorial waters, in the same way -- and for the same reasons as Long Island Sound. The Montreux Convention gives rights of passage to all civilian ships. Regardless of the US's position on Montreux, running warships through a sovereign country's territorial waters is not "legal."
 
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swampyankee said:
No, the US cannot, as the Bosphorus and Dardanelles are Turkish territorial waters, in the same way -- and for the same reasons as Long Island Sound. The Montreux Convention gives rights of passage to all civilian ships. Regardless of the US's position on Montreux, running warships through a sovereign country's territorial waters is not "legal."
Click to expand...
USS Nitze (DDG-94) visited Gölük Naval base near Istanbul on 3 February 2023 - last time I checked, USS Nitze was a USN warship...

Turkey has restricted all non-Black Sea based warships from all navies as a matter of choice, the convention clearly defines transit denial based on belligerant nations.

And, to add to this, as mentioned already, there is no declared war, a "special military operation" does not activate the convention.

Turkey chose to restrict military traffic to prevent escalation.
 
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