"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (11 Viewers)

[Admiral Beez]

Looks like ATACMS might be on its way to Ukraine:

Ukraine war: US to give Kyiv long-range ATACMS missiles - media reports

Kyiv has long been pushing for ATACMS missiles capable of hitting far behind the front line.

www.bbc.com

But not the good long-range, Kerch bridge-killing ones?

 

[GTX]

What must be worrying China is that Russia, whose weapons are the basis of a fair amount of China's equipment is suffering huge losses in people and equipment. Are basically being hammered by equipment that is often second line. Leopard 2, Challenger and even M1's (when they arrive) are all to be replaced in the near future. Storm Shadows which were purchased decades ago and are in a lot of cases being used by Ukraine as they are reaching the end of their shelf life and would have to be destroyed anyway. The same applies to the M1 Bradley and a lot of the Artillery both towed and self propelled is out of date. Starstreak AA missiles were out of production and the Gepard AA tanks were replaced my more modern equipment in NATO army's.

There are of course exceptions to this but it does apply to a lot of the kit Ukraine have been given.

I agree though would caution that China is already rapidly updating...and learning.

That said, I do often find myself thinking that we are almost watching what a war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact might have looked like in the '80s (less the nukes though).

 

[Admiral Beez]

I do often find myself thinking that we are almost watching what a war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact might have looked like in the '80s (less the nukes though).

Reminds me of Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising.

 

[wlewisiii]

Reminds me of Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising.

Nah, Clancy was always too full of fantasies where every Western gadget always worked perfectly the first time. You can always tell he never actually served just from that - none of his characters ever had maint failures to deal with or computer crashes that caused the engines to shut down or even tracks breaking at bad times. RSR was better than HFRO and the rest of his hero worship books but still bore very little resemblance to what reality might have been.

Team Yankee OTOH...

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Still loved that book. It was a great read.

 

[GrauGeist]

But not the good long-range, Kerch bridge-killing ones?

I suspect that the ATACMs that the U.S. will provide Ukraine, are from U.S. Army stocks.

The USN and USMC will not part with their stocks, as they have them held in reserve for potential service in the Pacific.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I suspect that the ATACMs that the U.S. will provide Ukraine, are from U.S. Army stocks. The USN and USMC will not part with their stocks, as they have them held in reserve for potential service in the Pacific.

There must be something in the US stocks that Ukraine can use to destroy the Kerch bridge that does not degrade US capabilities. Are there some short-dated TLAMs due for disposal?

 

[SaparotRob]

It is actually right in a number of ways. British troops had a lot of training in WW1 before going to the front. Also when they were in the front they were rotated out on a surprisingly regular basis.
Clearly if you were in the front line when an attack was ordered your chances of being killed and injured were exceptionally high something that is undeniable, but most of the time this wasn't the case.

Russian forces are experiencing what looks like the worst of both worlds. Little training, being thrown in the deep end and having little if any rotation or leave.

I am surprised to learn that there were regular troop rotations during WW 1. I didn't research the Great War much past the naval actions. I guess I just thought the land campaigns were akin to the Thirty Years War, with machine guns and aeroplanes.

 

[SaparotRob]

….

That said, I do often find myself thinking that we are almost watching what a war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact might have looked like in the '80s (less the nukes though).

I agree but it's definitely going differently than I would have expected pre-1991.

 

[GrauGeist]

There must be something in the US stocks that Ukraine can use to destroy the Kerch bridge that does not degrade US capabilities. Are there some short-dated TLAMs due for disposal?

The straight line distance between Kherson and Kerch is 207 miles (333km). Some of the areas held by Ukraine forces, particularly in the Zaporizhia region, look to have slightly shorter flight distances to Kerch.

Depending on the variant of ATACM that the U.S. will part with, the max. range is between 186 miles and 190 miles.

Of course, that range is influenced by it's warhead, so the bigger the punch, the shorter the range.

 

[SaparotRob]

Anyone know the range of Ukraine's SA-2 and Neptun missiles?

 

[GrauGeist]

Anyone know the range of Ukraine's SA-2 and Neptun missiles?

The R-360 (Neptun) has a max. range of 190 miles, depending on warload.

Again, the bigger the punch, the shorter the range.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The R-360 (Neptun) has a max. range of 190 miles, depending on warload.

Again, the bigger the punch, the shorter the range.

The fuel tank on the Storm Shadow doesn't seem large. Perhaps the Ukrainians are working on some means of increasing the fuel load, maybe an external drop away tank?

Otherwise Ukraine will need to risk flying their Fencers well south over the Black Sea to get the Scalps within range. Perhaps as part of a big drone wave distraction.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The R-360 (Neptun) has a max. range of 190 miles, depending on warload.

Again, the bigger the punch, the shorter the range.

Hmm… put those on a boat in order to achieve range to the Kerch bridge?

 

[SaparotRob]

The R-360 (Neptun) has a max. range of 190 miles, depending on warload.

Again, the bigger the punch, the shorter the range.

Just trying to figure out how to make up the distance with what's available.
With that said, a bunch of lighter warheads with a drone swarm and a HARM swarm and a Sea Baby swarm and a GMLRS swarm (anyone hear anything about the GLSDBs?) might prove effective enough.

 

[SaparotRob]

Hmm… put those on a boat in order to achieve range to the Kerch bridge?

Are you daft? The Russian Black Sea Fleet is out there!

 

[Admiral Beez]

Are you daft? The Russian Black Sea Fleet is out there!

Sink those too. Any silly enough to venture out to sea.

 

[SaparotRob]

Well, our boat is going to need a depth finder to detect any new Russian submerged reefs.

 

[fubar57]

Just trying to figure out how to make up the distance with what's available.
With that said, a bunch of lighter warheads with a drone swarm and a HARM swarm and a Sea Baby swarm and a GMLRS swarm (anyone hear anything about the GLSDBs?) might prove effective enough.

 

[SaparotRob]

American missiles definitely need a better naming convention.