Ukraine Situation Report: Prigozhin's Son Has Eye On Wagner Reboot
Ukraine says it sees no threat from the few hundred Wagner troops that have already returned to fight, but Russia could send more.
www.thedrive.com
"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)
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Jet Ski-Borne Ukrainian Special Ops Raid Shown In New Video
The newly released video claims to show teams of Ukrainian frogmen, riding jet skis, landing on the shore of Crimea.
www.thedrive.com
fubar57
General
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Thumpalumpacus
Captain
From those who have, to those who need.
A joke that came out at that time, "Putin and Medvedev went to a restaurant and the waiter approached Putin, asking "What would you like?"
Putin said, "I'll have the steak."
The waiter then said, "and the vegetable?"
Putin then said, "he'll have the steak, too."
Admiral Beez
Captain
Russia's Crimean Red Line Has Been Erased
Claims about the territory’s spiritual status have been revealed to be fiction.
foreignpolicy.com
Paywall free: Russia's Crimean Red Line Has Been Erased by Ukraine
Admiral Beez
Captain
Bugger that. But I think Ukraine has to do something dramatic before end of the year. At the minimum, take Tokmak.That's a BIG chunk o' optimism right there! I only do little bits of optimism like this.
Have to say, though, that the thread is starting to look a bit like a Pride rally.
SaparotRob
Unter Gemeine Geschwader Murmeltier XIII
Completely isolate Tokmak, drop that bridge and completely isolate Bakhmut. That should do it. Taking Tokmak would be Bakhmut 2.0.
Admiral Beez
Captain
I think a challenge also is that much of Ukraine is on a peacetime economy. I'm not convinced that all Ukrainians see the invasion as an existential threat to their people's survival. In 2006 I visited Israel and, sitting at a cafe near the Gaza border, as I looked up at a pair of F-15 Eagles circling overhead, bombed-up and ready for bear, I mentioned to my customer and host's father that the country has this combo of idyllic Mediterranean lifestyle but Sparta-like military preparedness, where everyone is prepared to fight. The old man, a combat veteran of 67 and 73 put down his coffee and tapped the table with his index finger, saying "never again will anyone f#ck with the Jewish people" adding "we know that any invader of Israel is not coming for territory or resources, but to murder every Jew they can find, to wipe us out, every man, women and child", and when in 1973 the Israelis were invaded in the Yom Kippur War, there was no peace economy, no cafes or shops or attempts to carry on life as usual; instead every Israeli who could fight, fought, while everyone else in the country supported them materially.
This is what Ukraine is missing, that sense that the Russians are not coming for land, but for blood, and that the nation must be defended at all and total cost. And it's not as if Ukrainians do not have their own Holocaust or Holodomor to remind them that the Russians are not coming for territorial gain alone - Putin has already primed the pump by announcing that Ukrainians are a fake, non-people in preparation for genocide. For starters, six million Ukrainians fled the country when the invasion began, many children yes, but also many women and men of fighting age. This would be anathema to the Israelis, to whom their soil is in their blood and it will be held to the last - there would be no second Exodus of Israelis fleeing to the four corners of the world. On the contrary, when Israel is threatened, Jewish people from across the globe flood into Israel to bolster its defence. There is no fleeing.
Out of 44 million Ukrainians the AFU has about 800,000 active members in all roles, including admin, logistics/support, mechanics, pilots and front line combat troops. For some perspective, during WW2, with a population of 11.5 million, over 1 million Canadians enlisted in the RCN/RCAF/Army. That's ten percent of all Canadians enlisted in the forces, and a much higher % of eligible adult males. During the Yom Kippur War, Israel fielded 400,000 combat soldiers out of 3.2 million people. During the 1939-40 Winter War against the USSR, Finland fielded 340,000 troops out of a population of 3.7 million Finns. Where is Ukraine's ten percent? Imagine if, by summer 2023 the AFU had four million enlisted women and men and what might have been possible. Perhaps it's a question of limited capacity for expanding training, equipment, ammunition availability and logistics to support such a force. But it must be done, solutions must be found. Ukraine is not going to expel the Russians nor save its nation while trying to keep the semblances of a peacetime economy. Zelenskyy needs to look to the Israelis for inspiration, and for starters ask all Ukrainian adults without children who have fled abroad to return to defend their nation and announce wider conscription.
The curtain is slowly coming down for Ukraine. Unlike Israel, where the lobby is strong in Washington, by summer 2024 the USA will begin to rapidly lose interest in materially and financially supporting Ukraine, and as the USA goes so does the rest of NATO. With Poland's renewed miliary strength and NATO expanded into Scandinavia right onto St. Petersburg's doorstep, there is a near zero chance of Russia invading any NATO member. This is especially true if Russia is bleeding out its military in Ukraine. By end of 2024 or early 2025 (especially if the GOP take the White House) I can envision pressure from the West for Ukraine and Russia to come to terms. NATO knows it is safe from a now militarily and economically shattered Russia, and the West will just want to get back to business. I don't know what the Ukrainian word is for Western Betrayal, but it's coming. The Poles know it well.
This is what Ukraine is missing, that sense that the Russians are not coming for land, but for blood, and that the nation must be defended at all and total cost. And it's not as if Ukrainians do not have their own Holocaust or Holodomor to remind them that the Russians are not coming for territorial gain alone - Putin has already primed the pump by announcing that Ukrainians are a fake, non-people in preparation for genocide. For starters, six million Ukrainians fled the country when the invasion began, many children yes, but also many women and men of fighting age. This would be anathema to the Israelis, to whom their soil is in their blood and it will be held to the last - there would be no second Exodus of Israelis fleeing to the four corners of the world. On the contrary, when Israel is threatened, Jewish people from across the globe flood into Israel to bolster its defence. There is no fleeing.
Out of 44 million Ukrainians the AFU has about 800,000 active members in all roles, including admin, logistics/support, mechanics, pilots and front line combat troops. For some perspective, during WW2, with a population of 11.5 million, over 1 million Canadians enlisted in the RCN/RCAF/Army. That's ten percent of all Canadians enlisted in the forces, and a much higher % of eligible adult males. During the Yom Kippur War, Israel fielded 400,000 combat soldiers out of 3.2 million people. During the 1939-40 Winter War against the USSR, Finland fielded 340,000 troops out of a population of 3.7 million Finns. Where is Ukraine's ten percent? Imagine if, by summer 2023 the AFU had four million enlisted women and men and what might have been possible. Perhaps it's a question of limited capacity for expanding training, equipment, ammunition availability and logistics to support such a force. But it must be done, solutions must be found. Ukraine is not going to expel the Russians nor save its nation while trying to keep the semblances of a peacetime economy. Zelenskyy needs to look to the Israelis for inspiration, and for starters ask all Ukrainian adults without children who have fled abroad to return to defend their nation and announce wider conscription.
The curtain is slowly coming down for Ukraine. Unlike Israel, where the lobby is strong in Washington, by summer 2024 the USA will begin to rapidly lose interest in materially and financially supporting Ukraine, and as the USA goes so does the rest of NATO. With Poland's renewed miliary strength and NATO expanded into Scandinavia right onto St. Petersburg's doorstep, there is a near zero chance of Russia invading any NATO member. This is especially true if Russia is bleeding out its military in Ukraine. By end of 2024 or early 2025 (especially if the GOP take the White House) I can envision pressure from the West for Ukraine and Russia to come to terms. NATO knows it is safe from a now militarily and economically shattered Russia, and the West will just want to get back to business. I don't know what the Ukrainian word is for Western Betrayal, but it's coming. The Poles know it well.
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Thumpalumpacus
Captain
I don't agree. I think Western leadership is well aware that yet another cease-fire will only be kicking the can down the road. The American public is split on this, to be sure, but I don't think the sky is falling.
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
A Russian strike on a village in northeastern Ukraine on Thursday killed at least 48 people, according to Ukrainian authorities, marking one of the deadliest attacks on civilians in the war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Telegram a missile struck a grocery store near the district of Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region. He called it a "demonstrably brutal Russian crime."
"Russian terror must be stopped. All those who help Russia circumvent sanctions are criminals," he wrote. "Everyone who supports Russia until now supports evil. Russia needs this and similar terrorist attacks for only one thing: to make its genocidal aggression the new norm for the whole world."
The missile fell in a small village called Groza, according to Ukrainian authorities, who shared images of the aftermath of the attack online.
Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine's minister of internal affairs, said on X, formerly known as Twitter, that a 6-year-old boy was among the dead.
Russian strike on Ukrainian village kills 48, authorities say
A Russian strike on a village in northeastern Ukraine on Thursday killed at least 48 people, according to Ukrainian authorities, marking one of the deadliest attacks on civilians in the war. Ukrain…
thehill.com
Somehow I suspect these folks understand exactly the threat the Russians present. They are, after all the ones burying their dead.
Admiral Beez
Captain
Agreed. But six times more Ukrainians have fled the country than have enlisted. The people are making their choice, personal safety over national defence. And I can't say I blame them, here in Canada if Russia attacked our north and Ottawa considered conscription I expect a majority of those 11% of Canadians who have a 2nd passport would flee, along with nearly all permanent non-citizen residents. But if I won't stand and fight, I can't readily expect other nations to provide endless support to defending Canada.
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
What are the demographics of those refugees? How old or young are they? Of course people will flee an invasion. Not everyone can stay and fight. What if you had a couple of young kids and your husband was serving the colors. Would you stay?
Let's see what their makeup is before casting aspersions on them, shall we?
Admiral Beez
Captain
No aspersions cast. I would likely flee as well, I'm not dying for Trudeau. Whenever I see those Child Onboard signs on cars I think, heck as an adult male I want to live just as much, women and children first on the Titanic doesn't seem fair. Not every nation has the Sparta-like, everyone who can shoot will do so nature of the Israelis. But..... that's what it may take. It's the lack of total war footing rather than those who have fled that I think slows down Ukraine.
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
Your post #24889 certainly reads like one.
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
You can disagree all you want,
A
Admiral Beez
, but before you do you may wish to look up the phrase "invidious comparison".
GrauGeist
Generalfeldmarschall zur Luftschiff Abteilung
Many of the Ukrainians that fled, were sure (like most of the rest of the world) that Russia would quickly defeat Ukrainian forces.
There was also a substantial number who were displaced with nowhere to go, so they sought refuge in neighboring countries.
Since Ukraine stopped the Red Army in it's tracks, a large number of Ukrainians have returned, too.
There was also a substantial number who were displaced with nowhere to go, so they sought refuge in neighboring countries.
Since Ukraine stopped the Red Army in it's tracks, a large number of Ukrainians have returned, too.
Thumpalumpacus
Captain
Anyone reading the first few pages of this thread will see that I too shared that view. Those Ukrainians who flee, okay. Those who stay and fight -- or simply try to keep their national life alive -- that's great too. Brits went out to pubs in WWII as well, god knows you'd want a drink after this kind of crap and devil take the hindmost.
MiTasol
2nd Lieutenant
I may well be wrong but I suspect that the vast majority of those who left Ukraine are women and children who have been sent away for safety by their menfolk. That certainly applies to the small number who make it out into the countryside where I am.
The few I have met are very proud of their husbands/boyfriends who have stayed to fight the Russians.
I just had the stanchions for the railing on my boat TIG welded by the local welding shop in the yard to correct some deficiencies from the original manufacture. You know: one of those salt-of-the-earth-type small operators who keeps the economy going. The employee who did this work left the Donbas in 2021, due to the situation there. Left his home. Everything. Now here with his wife and family. Daughter is 13 and having a rough go of it here, fitting in and all. According the owner, he's never stops working. Constantly at it. I hope he is successful and his family gets used to their new home.
Edit: I should add, his father was Russian and he hates Russians. All of the above I learned from the owner. The Ukrainian gentleman barely speaks any English.
Jim
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