"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

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special ed said:
As GG points out the useless UN has done nothing to protect a member country. They did once years ago when N. Korea invaded the south. Why does the US do the majority of the funding for a do nothing, useless organisation?
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And another person ignoring the nuclear question…
 
The Basket said:
Do you think Russia wants to go to war with NATO?

A full on invasion by NATO and air campaign into Ukraine would have the Russian running to the border or risk utter devastation.

If the Russians are doing badly against Ukraine then I don't fancy thier chances.

Yes this war must end and yes a peace treaty has to be reached. One that is acceptable to both sides.

This was normally how wars used to be fought. WW1 ended exactly this way. Russo Japanese war and so on. Even the Winter War with the Finns.

Ukraine may have the goal to reclaim say Crimea. Which is fair enough. But how does it intend to do that?

You're saying throw in the towel but that has already happened in 2014.

The war has to be fought with realistic goals and any peace treaty must be written with realistic goals.

Russia has failed because it's goals were not based on reality.

I haven't advocated Ukraine giving territory to Russia but I have advocated Ukraine doing what it takes to do to end the war on favourable terms. Putin I would suspect has zero....zero intentions of giving up Crimea. Stone cold zero.

So if the handover of Crimea is Numero uno on the agenda then the war will continue. For good or bad.
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lol

You can't seriously think Putin will not make good on his threat to use Nukes?

This groundhoggery is getting ridiculous.

Oh, and stop backtracking. You advocated for Ukraine to give up their eastern disputed territories for peace.
 
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special ed said:
As GG points out the useless UN has done nothing to protect a member country. They did once years ago when N. Korea invaded the south. Why does the US do the majority of the funding for a do nothing, useless organisation?
Click to expand...

The only reason the UN could act against North Korean aggression was because (a) China's seat on the Security Council was held by the Republic of China and not the People's Republic of China, and (b) the USSR was boycotting the Security Council because of Item (a).

The problem with the UN is that it requires a degree of unanimity which never occurs because certain countries, notably Russia and China, consistently vote against anything that the Western nations try to invoke. Either the UN needs to remove veto power from Permanent Members of the Security Council if they undertake hostile action outside of existing UN Resolutions, or the UN needs to step up aid efforts and then request countries provide protection to aid convoys...however, I can't see Russia (or China) agreeing to such a course of action.

One only as to look at China's strident criticism of Western sanctions against Russia while not making a single negative comment about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There's no way China is going to side with the West.
 
buffnut453 said:
The only reason the UN could act against North Korean aggression was because (a) China's seat on the Security Council was held by the Republic of China and not the People's Republic of China, and (b) the USSR was boycotting the Security Council because of Item (a).

The problem with the UN is that it requires a degree of unanimity which never occurs because certain countries, notably Russia and China, consistently vote against anything that the Western nations try to invoke. Either the UN needs to remove veto power from Permanent Members of the Security Council if they undertake hostile action outside of existing UN Resolutions, or the UN needs to step up aid efforts and then request countries provide protection to aid convoys...however, I can't see Russia (or China) agreeing to such a course of action.

One only as to look at China's strident criticism of Western sanctions against Russia while not making a single negative comment about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There's no way China is going to side with the West.
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Good points on the political side of it.
 
DerAdlerIstGelandet said:
lol

You can't seriously think Putin will not make good on his threat to use Nukes?

This groundhoggery is getting ridiculous. If I was not a moderator I would use the ignore function.

Oh, and stop backtracking. You advocated for Ukraine to give up their eastern disputed territories for peace.
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Oh dear.

Let's see how history plays out instead. Let's see who is right.
 
The Basket said:
No.

The nuclear deterrent thing does need to be rehashed. It cannot be ignored because it's the whole ball game.
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No one is ignoring it. It's precisely why we're not providing fighting men in our aid packages.

The Basket said:
It's literally everything. But again I will ask again how you intend to defeat Russia? That is the question.
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You apparently missed the allusions to Afghanistan and insurgency upthread, but that is how this will be stopped. A Russia suffering big losses in men and materiel in this current invasion will likely be too impoverished to stay in Ukraine for ten or so years trying to quell an insurgency.

The Basket said:
I have not advised Ukraine to surrender or cave in. I have advised Ukraine must find a favourable position to be so in any peace talks with Russia it can negotiate from a position of strength. From the details I have read that by June 1st, Russia could be in a weak position. So it is possible by June.
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That's a bit more moderate than conceding the previous depredations in Crimea and Donbas which you recommended accepting.

The Basket said:
Again, how is Russia going to strengthen its army when it's economically going to be devastated.
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Exactly.

The Basket said:
Russia could be very much weaker in two years time. Look how weak it is now and it's only going to get weaker.
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You're getting it.

The Basket said:
You're giving Russia too much credit. In my view in two years time Russia will be so far down the toilet as to be no longer viable.
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No, I'm not. You're the one recommending the Ukrainians bargain away regions of their country for what can only be a temporary peace -- not me or anyone else here.
The Basket said:
And again what is the West doing to save Ukraine? It could end the war tomorrow by stepping in fully.
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At the risk of nuclear war, which would make the tragedy unfolding in Ukraine look like a Sunday drive on a country road.

The Basket said:
At no point has anyone else put forward any mechanism to end the war other than to hang Putin.
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I'd suggest you read for comprehension. Several, myself included, have argued that Ukraine could extract a Russian withdrawal by imposing an insurgency too expensive in men, materiel, and prestige for the Russians to maintain under the weight of drastic sanctions and global opprobrium.
 
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Thumpalumpacus said:
No one is ignoring it. It's precisely why we're not providing fighting men in our aid packages.



You apparently missed the allusions to Afghanistan and insurgency upthread, but that is how this will be stopped. A Russia suffering big losses in men and materiel in this current invasion will likely be too impoverished to stay in Ukraine for ten or so years trying to quell an insurgency.



That's a bit more moderate than conceding the previous depredations in Crimea and Donbas which you recommended accepting.



Exactly.



You're getting it.



No, I'm not. You're the one recommending the Ukrainians bargain away regions of their country for what can only be a temporary peace -- not me or anyone else here.


At the risk of nuclear war, which would make the tragedy unfolding in Ukraine look like a Sunday drive on a country road.



I'd suggest you read for comprehension. Several, myself included, have argued that Ukraine could extract a Russian withdrawal by imposing an insurgency to expensive in men, materiel, and prestige for the Russians to maintain under the weight of drastic sanctions and global opprobrium.
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Well said, on all accounts…

E9C0F02F-D7D1-45EE-903D-7576A3006D2A.gif
 
GTX said:
www.abc.net.au

When Four Corners got access to Zelenskyy's heavily fortified HQ in Kyiv, here's what happened

In an Australian exclusive, ABC's Four Corners interviews Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister inside President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's heavily fortified compound in Kyiv.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
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The Polish ambassador's assessment is spot on:


"If Ukraine falls, we will be in big trouble. I believe the implementation of the Russian plan to create a grey zone in central Europe would start, and it would be implemented with the use of force, or a blackmail of force," he said.

And, he said, for Poland that would mean a "second-class NATO membership".

Whatever happens, he said, Mr Putin's invasion of Ukraine would force a new order on Europe.

"I believe that we'll now make further steps within NATO, within the United Nations to adjust," he said.

[...]

"Very much dangerous. I think the inner circle of President Putin should take care that the red button is nowhere close to President Putin's fingers," he said, ominously.
 
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