"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (7 Viewers)

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Now, I now you're going to reply with a rhetorical question(s) as to why Ukraine (or any other country) would accept any of this, especially when they appear to have the invader on the ropes; but they will. This is my prediction.

Well I was going to respond, but since you know whats going on in my head (twice now you have claimed this) I see no point. I'll check in with you before I respond to anyone including my wife so you can tell me what I'm going to say.

 

[buffnut453]

The US was quite open in its contemporary debates on the UN, and historical record shows that we were afraid the UN might try to impose the rest of the world's view on the US, and that was not to be allowed unless it was OK with us. We refused to sign the UN charter until the veto clause was put in, including the US being a permanent member of the Security Counsel with the power of the veto.

As far as the US was concerned, if the UN did something that the UK, France, China, or the USSR did not like it was "eh, so what, plus it might be to our advantage".

A classic case of the law of unintended consequences. Now that veto power is being used against us to hinder our ability to respond...and it's leveraged with great effect by both Russia and China.

 

[buffnut453]

Sanctions are biting in Russia:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60802572?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=623841c70ce87e491a0f08ef%26%27Sugar%20panic%27%20as%20Russia%27s%20supermarkets%20ration%20goods%262022-03-21T12%3A44%3A17.490Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:e3de6be2-8403-42b7-89ba-164b9f709538&pinned_post_asset_id=623841c70ce87e491a0f08ef&pinned_post_type=share

I wonder if there's a run on toilet paper yet?

If so, I hope the intelligence agencies are using these categories to measure the decline of the Russian population (with apologies for resurrecting an early COVID meme):

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Well yes, one of the first rules in negotiations is to make a hard demand for everything you want, an absolute position so to speak, with the assumption that you'll need to haggle down from that point. I expect the following:

• Ceasefire, perhaps brokered by China (a very smart move on their part, though need to be careful supporting precedents on self determination in Taiwan)
  Ukraine haggles down to its prewar borders in return for withdraw of Russian forces
• UN sanctioned referendums are held in the smaller pre-war Russian-held territories of Donetsk and Luhansk (not the entire Russian recognized territory) to determine if the populations wants to join Ukraine, Russia or be independent. These two leave Ukraine (and likely good riddance)
• Crimea goes to Russia (Ukraine barely raised a finger to hold it in 2014)
• Putin remains in power, hero's welcome in Russia for pacifying Ukraine and regaining Russian populated lands, with promise to protect Russians wherever they are.
• Ukraine promises to never join NATO, but refuses to denounce EU hopes or to demilitarize
• War declared over. Global business returns to business. Most sanctions end. Nord2 certified and begins pumping gas around Ukraine to Germany.
• Ukraine begins rebuilding with most of the money coming from China and Russia.
• Ukraine recalls its refugees from across Europe and world, and begins to update military. Ideally with an Israeli-sourced Iron Dome and US-sourced counter battery defence.

Now, I now you're going to reply with a rhetorical question(s) as to why Ukraine (or any other country) would accept any of this, especially when they appear to have the invader on the ropes; but they will. This is my prediction.

That looks more like an abject Ukrainian surrender than a bit of haggling.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Ukrainian officials on Monday rejected Russian demands of surrender in Mariupol as the city faces an onslaught of attacks.

The Russian military had issued an ultimatum, saying anyone who lays down their arms would be permitted to leave Mariupol through safety corridors.

Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, director of the Russian National Center for Defense Management, called for Ukrainians to "lay down your arms," claiming that a "terrible humanitarian catastrophe has developed."

"All who lay down their arms are guaranteed safe passage out of Mariupol," Mizintsev said.

However, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk rejected this offer outright, Reuters reported.

"There can be no question of any surrender, laying down of arms," Vereshchuk said. "We have already informed the Russian side about this."

According to The Associated Press, Mariupol Mayor Piotr Andryushchenko also rejected the demands, cursing the Russian forces in a Facebook post.

Mariupol has faced some of the worst of Russia's attack on Ukraine in the past few weeks. On Sunday, it was reported that Russian forces had bombed an art school where hundreds of refugees were sheltering.

Mariupol officials reject Russian military's surrender demand

Ukrainian officials on Monday rejected Russian demands of surrender in Mariupol as the city faces an onslaught of attacks.

thehill.com

 

[XBe02Drvr]

As far as the US was concerned, if the UN did something that the UK, France, China, or the USSR did not like it was "eh, so what, plus it might be to our advantage".

Spoken like a true "ugly American". With superpower authority, an attitude like that, and rapacious industrial might, is it a wonder we didn't inspire the rest of the world to follow worshipfully in our footsteps?

 

[Zipper730]

Guys, check this out. I stopped worrying after reading this one!

Famous astrologer predicted Putin's quick death

The death card doesn't necessarily mean death, it means a great change, often the end of something: It could be the end of his life, or a change in his policies (change can be good, neutral, or bad).

 

[Admiral Beez]

That looks more like an abject Ukrainian surrender than a bit of haggling.

I agree, but Ukraine gets to keep its pre-war borders, stops the murder of its people, keeps its own government, national identity and freedom, plus they now have a likely faster track to EU membership. Those breakaway "Republics" will be begging to return within a generation.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I agree, but Ukraine gets to keep its pre-war borders, stops the murder of its people, keeps its own government, national identity and freedom, plus they now have a likely faster track to EU membership. Those breakaway "Republics" will be begging to return within a generation.

"Pre-war borders"? This war started in 2014.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

That looks more like an abject Ukrainian surrender than a bit of haggling.

I think it's a more realistic outlook than any "pre-2014 borders, go-for-broke" hard line stance on Ukranian sovereignty. It acknowledges the self-determination wishes of the Russian minority and gets Putard's spawn out of the rest of Ukraine, while giving him a face-saving (if personally frustrating) line of retreat, and the rest of us a reprieve from incineration. It gives both Ukraine and the Red Army breathing space to build back better, and NATO time and incentive to solidify its eastern wall.
Admittedly this feels like NC's "peace in our time", but it's only intermission before the second half, and if we use the half-time break to our advantage to get on a war footing, we can make the second half insurmountable to Putardsky, and likely terminate his reign (with extreme prejudice). Played right he's "hoist on his own Putard". (Couldn't resist that one!)

 

[Escuadrilla Azul]

I saw on-line (so treat it with caution) a video released by the Russian authorities of a strike using what was purported to be one of their hypersonic missiles on an ammunition dump. What was interesting was that it certainly was a missile strike, and may well have been an ammunition dump as it looked like the type of dump used by any army. However if it was it, was a very empty ammunition dump, the roof fell in and there was a small fire but no explosions.

Part of me does hope they wasted one of their few, very expensive, hypersonic missiles, on what clearly was, an empty shed

Not very probable the use of the hypersonic missile as said by RF:

We Have Questions About Russia's Claimed Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile Use In Ukraine (Updated)

The apparent first use of Russia's air-launched hypersonic ballistic missile against a target in Ukraine doesn't all add up.

www.thedrive.com

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I think it's a more realistic outlook than any "pre-2014 borders, go-for-broke" hard line stance on Ukranian sovereignty. It acknowledges the self-determination wishes of the Russian minority and gets Putard's spawn out of the rest of Ukraine, while giving him a face-saving (if personally frustrating) line of retreat, and the rest of us a reprieve from incineration. It gives both Ukraine and the Red Army breathing space to build back better, and NATO time and incentive to solidify its eastern wall.
Admittedly this feels like NC's "peace in our time", but it's only intermission before the second half, and if we use the half-time break to our advantage to get on a war footing, we can make the second half insurmountable to Putardsky, and likely terminate his reign (with extreme prejudice). Played right he's "hoist on his own Putard". (Couldn't resist that one!)

Bear in mind that Russia to will gain breathing space in the intermission -- and analyze their failures. I don't see any reason to assume Ukraine benefits more in the future from such concessions. I think Crimea is lost no matter what, but it's important that Ukraine retain the Donbas, it seems to me.

 

[SaparotRob]

We bargain for these poor souls as best we can. There are certain realities we have to face. Putin is a nutbag is with nukes. He might/might not be aware of how much stronger and more united he made the West ("I ain't telling the boss. You tell the boss, comrade"). His economy is weaker, no matter what one thinks of the special economic administration exercise. Whatever time he has to build up, he got a whole buttload of tires to replace. That's gonna cost a whole lotta' worthless rubles. Will he be buying them from China?
We face reality. We play hard ball. Crimea ain't off the table (yeah, I know. Reality sucks, don't it?). Belorussia is demilitarized and neutral. They were complicit with the invasion.
All those frozen assets? Russia gets what's left after reparations. He might not be getting the best deals on new stuff. Better check out "logistics" too, Vlad. The Donbas region will have real referendums after de-militarization.
Ukraine joining NATO is not up to Russia. Bargaining chip. He ain't going to want to go toe to toe with NATO anytime soon.
Thankfully for you guys that's all I got.

 

[buffnut453]

Glad to see Russian forces are actively targeting nazis and neo-nazis during this operation:

The administration of the Buchenwald memorial centre in Germany has said a man who survived a number of concentration camps during World War Two was killed in the bombing on his home in the north-eastern city of Kharkiv on Friday, according to his relatives. Boris Romantschenko, who was 96, "actively campaigned for the memory of the crimes of Nazism and was vice president of the Buchenwald-Dora International Committee", they said in a series of tweets.




Mr Romantschenko. God bless you for your courage, fortitude, and services to humanity.

 

[SaparotRob]

I remember this photo.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

Bear in mind that Russia to will gain breathing space in the intermission -- and analyze their failures. I don't see any reason to assume Ukraine benefits more in the future from such concessions. I think Crimea is lost no matter what, but it's important that Ukraine retain the Donbas, it seems to me.

Intermission will be an arms race: a healthy and reinvigorated NATO vs a depleted and sanctioned Russia. The areas that have a true, referendum-confirmed Russian majority will never be more than a thorn in Ukraine's side and a constant temptation to Putardsky, so let them go.
This half time break is an opportunity to prepare for the inevitable confrontation to come. All the former East Bloc NATO members need to be equipped with and trained on modern high tech DEFENSIVE weaponry, and practiced in joint operations and logistics. Hardened communications, command and control and mobile guerrilla style tactics need to become second nature. Well trained and integrated Swiss/Swedish/Israeli style civilian militias need to be the norm, with Ukrainian advisors to put an edge on them.
NATO needs to build a solid wall on its eastern flank that's impenetrable to attack, but clearly and obviously incapable of mounting an offense. If an offensive is needed, that task falls to US, UK, France, and Canada. Given formidable enough obstacles, Putardsky or his successors, deprived of their pretext, will have to back burner Humpty's resurrection.

 

[SaparotRob]

Intermission will be an arms race: a healthy and reinvigorated NATO vs a depleted and sanctioned Russia. The areas that have a true, referendum-confirmed Russian majority will never be more than a thorn in Ukraine's side and a constant temptation to Putardsky, so let them go.
This half time break is an opportunity to prepare for the inevitable confrontation to come. All the former East Bloc NATO members need to be equipped with and trained on modern high tech DEFENSIVE weaponry, and practiced in joint operations and logistics. Hardened communications, command and control and mobile guerrilla style tactics need to become second nature. Well trained and integrated Swiss/Swedish/Israeli style civilian militias need to be the norm, with Ukrainian advisors to put an edge on them.
NATO needs to build a solid wall on its eastern flank that's impenetrable to attack, but clearly and obviously incapable of mounting an offense. If an offensive is needed, that task falls to US, UK, France, and Canada. Given formidable enough obstacles, Putardsky or his successors, deprived of their pretext, will have to back burner Humpty's resurrection.

Hit reply by accident.

 

[wlewisiii]

what the Prosecutor General is accusing Russia of is this:
With genocide is understood any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:
(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

That is the law in every signatory country. Ukraine's Prosecutor General is beginning a case for 2(e) violation. And it may be referred to the ICC.

 

[vikingBerserker]

I've wondered if they have already done that in the breakaway areas. So if it went to a legitimate vote, have all the Ukrainians already been moved out.

 

[Admiral Beez]

"Pre-war borders"? This war started in 2014.

If not 1991, but I'm referring to the territory held by Ukraine before the Feb 2022 invasion.