Well I was going to respond, but since you know whats going on in my head (twice now you have claimed this) I see no point. I'll check in with you before I respond to anyone including my wife so you can tell me what I'm going to say.
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Now, I now you're going to reply with a rhetorical question(s) as to why Ukraine (or any other country) would accept any of this, especially when they appear to have the invader on the ropes; but they will. This is my prediction.
The US was quite open in its contemporary debates on the UN, and historical record shows that we were afraid the UN might try to impose the rest of the world's view on the US, and that was not to be allowed unless it was OK with us. We refused to sign the UN charter until the veto clause was put in, including the US being a permanent member of the Security Counsel with the power of the veto.
As far as the US was concerned, if the UN did something that the UK, France, China, or the USSR did not like it was "eh, so what, plus it might be to our advantage".
Well yes, one of the first rules in negotiations is to make a hard demand for everything you want, an absolute position so to speak, with the assumption that you'll need to haggle down from that point. I expect the following:
Now, I now you're going to reply with a rhetorical question(s) as to why Ukraine (or any other country) would accept any of this, especially when they appear to have the invader on the ropes; but they will. This is my prediction.
- Ceasefire, perhaps brokered by China (a very smart move on their part, though need to be careful supporting precedents on self determination in Taiwan)
Ukraine haggles down to its prewar borders in return for withdraw of Russian forces- UN sanctioned referendums are held in the smaller pre-war Russian-held territories of Donetsk and Luhansk (not the entire Russian recognized territory) to determine if the populations wants to join Ukraine, Russia or be independent. These two leave Ukraine (and likely good riddance)
- Crimea goes to Russia (Ukraine barely raised a finger to hold it in 2014)
- Putin remains in power, hero's welcome in Russia for pacifying Ukraine and regaining Russian populated lands, with promise to protect Russians wherever they are.
- Ukraine promises to never join NATO, but refuses to denounce EU hopes or to demilitarize
- War declared over. Global business returns to business. Most sanctions end. Nord2 certified and begins pumping gas around Ukraine to Germany.
- Ukraine begins rebuilding with most of the money coming from China and Russia.
- Ukraine recalls its refugees from across Europe and world, and begins to update military. Ideally with an Israeli-sourced Iron Dome and US-sourced counter battery defence.
Spoken like a true "ugly American". With superpower authority, an attitude like that, and rapacious industrial might, is it a wonder we didn't inspire the rest of the world to follow worshipfully in our footsteps?As far as the US was concerned, if the UN did something that the UK, France, China, or the USSR did not like it was "eh, so what, plus it might be to our advantage".
The death card doesn't necessarily mean death, it means a great change, often the end of something: It could be the end of his life, or a change in his policies (change can be good, neutral, or bad).Guys, check this out. I stopped worrying after reading this one!
Famous astrologer predicted Putin's quick death
I agree, but Ukraine gets to keep its pre-war borders, stops the murder of its people, keeps its own government, national identity and freedom, plus they now have a likely faster track to EU membership. Those breakaway "Republics" will be begging to return within a generation.That looks more like an abject Ukrainian surrender than a bit of haggling.
I agree, but Ukraine gets to keep its pre-war borders, stops the murder of its people, keeps its own government, national identity and freedom, plus they now have a likely faster track to EU membership. Those breakaway "Republics" will be begging to return within a generation.
I think it's a more realistic outlook than any "pre-2014 borders, go-for-broke" hard line stance on Ukranian sovereignty. It acknowledges the self-determination wishes of the Russian minority and gets Putard's spawn out of the rest of Ukraine, while giving him a face-saving (if personally frustrating) line of retreat, and the rest of us a reprieve from incineration. It gives both Ukraine and the Red Army breathing space to build back better, and NATO time and incentive to solidify its eastern wall.That looks more like an abject Ukrainian surrender than a bit of haggling.
Not very probable the use of the hypersonic missile as said by RF:I saw on-line (so treat it with caution) a video released by the Russian authorities of a strike using what was purported to be one of their hypersonic missiles on an ammunition dump. What was interesting was that it certainly was a missile strike, and may well have been an ammunition dump as it looked like the type of dump used by any army. However if it was it, was a very empty ammunition dump, the roof fell in and there was a small fire but no explosions.
Part of me does hope they wasted one of their few, very expensive, hypersonic missiles, on what clearly was, an empty shed
I think it's a more realistic outlook than any "pre-2014 borders, go-for-broke" hard line stance on Ukranian sovereignty. It acknowledges the self-determination wishes of the Russian minority and gets Putard's spawn out of the rest of Ukraine, while giving him a face-saving (if personally frustrating) line of retreat, and the rest of us a reprieve from incineration. It gives both Ukraine and the Red Army breathing space to build back better, and NATO time and incentive to solidify its eastern wall.
Admittedly this feels like NC's "peace in our time", but it's only intermission before the second half, and if we use the half-time break to our advantage to get on a war footing, we can make the second half insurmountable to Putardsky, and likely terminate his reign (with extreme prejudice). Played right he's "hoist on his own Putard". (Couldn't resist that one!)
Intermission will be an arms race: a healthy and reinvigorated NATO vs a depleted and sanctioned Russia. The areas that have a true, referendum-confirmed Russian majority will never be more than a thorn in Ukraine's side and a constant temptation to Putardsky, so let them go.Bear in mind that Russia to will gain breathing space in the intermission -- and analyze their failures. I don't see any reason to assume Ukraine benefits more in the future from such concessions. I think Crimea is lost no matter what, but it's important that Ukraine retain the Donbas, it seems to me.
Hit reply by accident.Intermission will be an arms race: a healthy and reinvigorated NATO vs a depleted and sanctioned Russia. The areas that have a true, referendum-confirmed Russian majority will never be more than a thorn in Ukraine's side and a constant temptation to Putardsky, so let them go.
This half time break is an opportunity to prepare for the inevitable confrontation to come. All the former East Bloc NATO members need to be equipped with and trained on modern high tech DEFENSIVE weaponry, and practiced in joint operations and logistics. Hardened communications, command and control and mobile guerrilla style tactics need to become second nature. Well trained and integrated Swiss/Swedish/Israeli style civilian militias need to be the norm, with Ukrainian advisors to put an edge on them.
NATO needs to build a solid wall on its eastern flank that's impenetrable to attack, but clearly and obviously incapable of mounting an offense. If an offensive is needed, that task falls to US, UK, France, and Canada. Given formidable enough obstacles, Putardsky or his successors, deprived of their pretext, will have to back burner Humpty's resurrection.
If not 1991, but I'm referring to the territory held by Ukraine before the Feb 2022 invasion."Pre-war borders"? This war started in 2014.