"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (10 Viewers)

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Admiral Beez said:
The Brits have come a long way since failing miserably at the NATO shooting match in Canada.
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They have improved, but a long way may be an exaggeration.
Glider said:
May 2023 Challenger wins
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Old news.
In November Spain achieved the first two places in the main battle tank category (Leo 2E). In addition, Spain also achieved third place in the IFV category.
In the May edition, Spain achieved 3 of the 6 first places although the British Army won the victory in the tank category.

The Spanish Army wins an international main battle tanks competition in Latvia

www.outono.net

Unfortunately Spain just sent a handful of older Leo 2A4 to Ukraine.
 
Glider said:
I doubt that Ukraine have any other option. They are clearly running low on Ammo, men and equipment.
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Even with all three aplenty plus several dozen F-16s, the Ukrainians have no means of moving forward. They need engineering kit, specifically armoured breaching and anti-mining capability, and lots of it. Ukraine needs hundreds of M58 MICLIC or equivalent, perhaps over one thousand- basically one towed behind every few IFV, APC and AFVs in order to bust through the Surovikin Line and take Melitipol.

 
Looking at reports on actual Russian production capability coupled with what they actually managed in 2023 doesn't
bode well for Russian forces.

AFV's are in a particularly bad place. Russia started with 2,600 operational tanks and according to visually identified
losses they are now down by 2500 on the original number. Others would also have been lost for various reasons but
cannot be verified.

Tank facilities have been upgrading T-72's, T-80's, and some T-90's but these cannot come anywhere covering the losses.
T-62's are now being refurbished as well which shows the barrel is starting to be scraped.

The T-14 Armata is another interesting story in itself. The tank was built around its engine. Nothing drastic there except
the A-85-3 engine was made to be used in pumping stations etc. It is a copy of the German WWII Simmering SLA 16 diesel
(also called Porsche Tour 212). it is more compact than the V-2 derivatives and has more power. The main problem is that
it still has mechanical problems, it is an X type so it is also quite complex with the end result being it is unreliable but also
very difficult to maintain.Going back to the older V92 series engines is only an option if the tank is redesigned to take
the older, much larger type.

The electronics for the tank tie in with another huge problem for Russian military equipment - reliance on outside sources
for microelectronic components. As an example, teardowns of captured Orlan-10 UAV drones show the use of
stolen Swedish traffic cameras.

There is also the problem that although 64 million rubles was allocated the plant buildings for production are built but
there is no production line in operation and no machinery as machine tools come in from overseas - well, not at the
moment. So that is it for the Armata, a tank that can't be built as it's electronics are not available, machines to build
it aren't available, the Volgograd Red October plant, which makes armour plate became bankrupt in 2018 with it's
owner on a wanted list for transferring billions out of Russia, and it's power plant is not anywhere ready for use.

Since 2011, 72,000 officials have been in court on corruption charges which says a lot.

Aircraft. Close to 90 lost so far with 29 supplied in 2022 and 22 in 2023. The 2023 types are all SU types.
As per tanks - less supplied than lost. Mig types are not being replaced as apparently production of Mig's stopped
around eight years ago. Don't know if that is correct but it seems so.

Naval. Black sea fleet losses are up to 12 vessels with eight new vessels finished in 2023. This includes three
submarines with others having to have propulsion systems changed due to sanctions and the Buyan-M corvette
having a Chinese engine. Some of these new vessels are also under a cloud due to the USC - United Shipbuilding
Corporation which is the umbrella company for 40 builders, repair yards, and so on, being, surprise surprise, bankrupt.

All in all, announcements of massive build programs are straight propaganda or maybe even delusional.
 
This is something I've wondered about. As a thought experiment, how would NATO get through a similar situation? Ukraine and Russia aren't involved although NATO stands in for Ukraine and the opponent holds the Russian positions. Same terrain and obstacles.
Think of it as wargaming between the Red and Blue forces at a command college course.
 
Its a guess obviously but the production situation would be very different. Most of the NATO counties have the ability to produce all kinds of military equipment but at the moment, even now most are operating under peacetime conditions.

For example, if the UK, France, Germany, Belgium, Italy and Sweden were to increase production of 155mm ammunition to the maximum, there would be no shortage of ammo and they could easily out produce Russia. The same applies to all other areas of logistical need.

The airpower available to NATO, even at today's historically low levels would vastly outclass Russia, who are unable to dominate Ukraine small underequipped airforce. Resulting in the Russian front lines being isolated and the bridge to Crimea would be destroyed within a week, together with any other logistical chokepoints.

Technically the NATO forces are in a different league to Russia. India who operate both the Rafael and the SU30MKI have found in exercises that the Rafael completely outperforms the SU30 with its radar defeating the SU30 countermeasures and the Rafael's EW kit neutralising the Su30. Ukraine effectively doesn't have any effective EW equipment as it was all older Russian designs who as you would expect know how to defeat it. I would expect Nato equipment to be able to deal with the S300 SAM's and be reasonably good against the s400 as they have been around for a while and their weaknesses researched.
This is one of the interesting facts about the F16 transfer, no one has said what level of EW will be supplied, and that is critical.
 
On a slightly different aspect Hungry may need to make some decisions as the EU seem to be running out of patience with them.

The European Union (EU) is on the brink of implementing its toughest measure to date, as reported by Politico.
EU leaders are considering invoking Article 7, a significant move that could block a member country from participating in EU voting processes.

Hungary, under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's leadership, is the country at risk of facing these repercussions. Orbán's government has resisted contributing to a €50 billion EU aid package for Ukraine, insisting that the rest of the EU nations should jointly finance the aid without Hungary's contribution.

According to Politico, citing five EU officials and diplomats, the EU's patience with a defiant Hungary is wearing thin. Diplomats indicate a growing willingness to exclude Hungary from voting processes, a step previously deemed "unthinkable."

The move is considered due to Hungary's perceived endangerment of Ukraine's security, a candidate for EU membership.

The activation of Article 7 could occur within weeks. An EU diplomat stated that if Orbán blocks an agreement at the February summit, Hungary could lose its voting rights.

Steven Van Hecke, a professor of European politics at KU Leuven University, acknowledges the serious threat Hungary faces. He notes that EU leaders are growing tired of Orbán and stresses the reality of the Article 7 threat.
 
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