"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

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RogerdeLluria said:
Wow, this wasn't expected.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepares to replace Ukraine’s top general

Removal of Valeriy Zaluzhny would mark biggest shake-up of military command since Russia’s full-scale invasion
www.ft.com www.ft.com
Click to expand...
www.kyivpost.com

Zaluzhny: Ukraine’s Defense Ministry Denies Firing of Commander-in-Chief

The rumor mill went into overdrive on Monday evening after claims made by several politicians and journalists on social media. The president's office has also denied the reports.
www.kyivpost.com www.kyivpost.com
 
Jan 30 (Reuters) - A Ukrainian military spy official said on Tuesday that Russia was showing no willingness to return the bodies of dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war Moscow says died in a military plane crash in Belgorod region last week.

Kyiv has said Moscow has provided no evidence to support its assertion that 65 captured Ukrainian soldiers were aboard the Russian military transport plane, which crashed last Wednesday in Belgorod in Russia near the border.

Moscow says the plane was shot down by Ukraine on its way to a prisoner swap; Ukraine has neither confirmed nor denied that its forces shot it down.

"It's a statement from Russia that our prisoners were there, and so far we can analyse only their words. Now there is no readiness to transfer the bodies from the other side," Andriy Yusov, the spokesperson, was quoted as saying by Suspilne broadcaster.

Russia's state Investigative Committee said last week that body parts were being collected and removed for genetic testing. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday he had no information on what would happen to the remains or whether they would be handed to Ukraine.

The Russian Investigative Committee has released footage from the site showing a single body in a snowy field as well as items of clothing. Reuters verified, opens new tab the location of the crash site seen in one of the videos but was unable to independently verify the date or other details.

Ukraine's human rights commissioner Dmytro Lubinets told Reuters last week that an unofficial list of Ukrainian POW casualties circulated in Russian media after the crash included soldiers who had already returned in a previous swap.


As I called it above -- Russian bullshittery.
 
GTX said:
www.kyivpost.com

Zaluzhny: Ukraine’s Defense Ministry Denies Firing of Commander-in-Chief

The rumor mill went into overdrive on Monday evening after claims made by several politicians and journalists on social media. The president's office has also denied the reports.
www.kyivpost.com www.kyivpost.com
Click to expand...
The Generals serve at the whim of the elected Head of State. Zaluzhnyi is no miracle worker, and if or when the exit comes, there will be other generals who can provide a fresh approach. In 2023 Ukraine took its best Western supplied kit and spread it across a 800km wide front in penny packets, rather than concentrating it in one smashing fist. The latter is apparently what the Pentagon wanted. Someone has the own the fact that after tens of billions in lethal aid throughout 2023 the UAF gained a few hundred sqkm.
 
ThomasP said:
US/NATO intel believes most of the Russian combat aircraft cannot detect the modern low observable S&T/TWS phased array radars - for whatever reason (it is presumed due to expense) most their systems have not been updated. Most of their combat aircraft can detect high power search and/or SAR/CW/PD lock-ons depending on the aircraft type and purpose. Unfortunately for most of today's Russian combat aircrew, systems like the Patriot use low observable phased array radars to search for and track their target, and to indicate the target. When you combine this with the ability to launch some variants of the missile without lock on before launch and use mid-course guidance to send the missile into the terminal basket - whereupon at longer ranges the targeting radar will 'blip' at high power to indicate the target, allowing the missile to lock on to the selected target with its onboard active terminal homing radar. At short to medium ranges the 'blip' may not even be needed, only a mid-course signal, and the first thing the target aircraft's pilot or REO will know of an incoming missile is the RWR signal from the missile's onboard active radar lock-on. The time from when the RWR goes off to impact when this is done well can be less than 2 seconds.
Click to expand...


Very, very, few SAMs use an active seeker. Based on open source information none of the SAMs available to Ukraine would fit this description. Most of the ones that do use active seekers are long range variants that use the active seeker to reduce range induced track ambiguity by allow the seeker to guide itself in the terminal phase. There are practical range limits to CLOS accuracy, but using CLOS or some variant to get the missile close enough for either a semi active or active seeker at the end is great.

You cannot hold the initiation time of an active seeker until that close (your quoted 2 seconds) without a valid range solution. To have a valid range solution you have to have a track. When the target is 70 seconds away (100 km at Mach 4+) there is a lot of time for things to change from launch to intercept.

In the other case you describe, "the targeting radar will 'blip' at high power to indicate the target, allowing the missile to lock on to the selected target with its onboard active terminal homing radar", are you sure you mean "active" and not semi active? The high power blip you describe is well suited to SA terminal phase, but you cannot hide the high power illumination pulse, which must be directed at the target aircraft.

T!
 
Admiral Beez said:
The Generals serve at the whim of the elected Head of State. Zaluzhnyi is no miracle worker, and if or when the exit comes, there will be other generals who can provide a fresh approach. In 2023 Ukraine took its best Western supplied kit and spread it across a 800km wide front in penny packets, rather than concentrating it in one smashing fist. The latter is apparently what the Pentagon wanted. Someone has the own the fact that after tens of billions in lethal aid throughout 2023 the UAF gained a few hundred sqkm.
Click to expand...
The fact that the Pentagon wanted the AFU to use NATO tactics without the air power?
 
If Ukraine concentrated all their new gear into one spot for a spectacular push into Russian lines, it would become encircled and annihilated while the rest of the front becomes at risk.

Instead, Ukraine spread it out along the extended front to hold Russia back while exploiting weak spots and moving into those voids. In the process, the Russians have lost an absurd amount of men and material that they are hard pressed to replace.

If the Pentagon suggested Ukraine do the latter, than it was good advice.
 
michaelmaltby said:
Where will the fault line break....?

Where did it break in 1950...?

At the 38th parallel. Korea.

Stalin 'permitting' Kim Sr. to invade the South. (Mao wasn't 'enthusiastic'.)

To test resolve.

In 1950 Stalin had been pushed back by the western Allies in Greece, in Iran, and most publicly, in Berlin.

Since 2022 Putin has continuously been surprised and pushed back.

In 2024 Putin is under enormous pressure to maintain an 'economy' and a maximum war effort. North Korea is a reliable partner with interior lines of supply. Couldn't be better.

Putin needs Kim Jr., IMO, to be his cat's paw, under the protection of Putin's 'nuclear umbrella'. "You don't

Cyber attacks and misinformation campaigns will intensify. This strategy has been rehearsed in Estonia and Ukraine and Russian and NorK hackers share the same mindset. Moscow University is for NorK students 'the Paris' of the universe.

I think the only thing that matters is how China and the USA react to NorK aggression.

South Korea, while hugely successful, is a society under enormous pressure.

The politics reflect that. South Korea is an Occupied Country facing a Communist Country that calls itself the 'True Korea' and peace is only maintained by 'truce'.

I believe the tripwire for what comes next will be the 38th.

mm
Click to expand...
While I agree you basic points, Taiwan is equally probable - and maybe in concert with renewed escalation in Middle East via Iran.
 
Denniss said:
With that money and material they stopped russians from advancing further + eliminated a huge amount of russian men and material. Good enough for me.
Click to expand...
A fair POV for certain. And given the unplanned throttling back of US aid heading into 2024 due to domestic politics, it's probably lucky for the Ukrainians that they're not right now desperately fighting and exhausting the now seemingly-irreplaceable kit and ammunition in the suburbs of Melitipol, having used their best kit in 2023 to smash their way through the Suvorkin Line.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Russia Is Wearing Down Ukraine's Defenses With Aid from US and EU Stalled - BNN Bloomberg

With allied assistance delayed, Kyiv’s troops don’t have enough artillery and air-defense munitions.
www.bnnbloomberg.ca www.bnnbloomberg.ca

www.csmonitor.com

In Ukraine and Europe, a concern: Has Putin outlasted the US?

America’s support for Ukraine has resonated around the world. Yet as Congress holds up new aid, and Ukraine’s supplies dwindle, comes a question: Has U.S. support shifted from “as long as it takes” to “as long as we could”?
www.csmonitor.com www.csmonitor.com

I expect US aid to Ukraine will continue to be politically restricted until the Nov 2024 election or even later, which means 2024 is a lost year for Ukraine, where even with improved aid from the non-US NATO partners, EU, Australia, etc. the UAF will at best spend this year holding its ground. So, we must wait to 2025 for the big push to Crimea.

I'm reminded of the end of the First World War and the interwar period, where the US led the founding of the League of Nations, but domestic politics led to the US abandoning the organization and turning to isolationism. I hope Zelenskyy has read his history books and knows that US aid is fickle.
 
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