"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (1 Viewer)

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Vlad and his various hangers-on and sycophants should realize that a) starting a conflict by invading one's neighbor means that neighbor need not honor the borders one just violated and b) bullies don't have a right to complain when their victims don't immediately concede.
 
Ukrainian Su-27 pilot and bike driver.
No official English translation, sorry. But YT subtitles are not bad.
He openly describes his confusion in the first combat sortie. He prefers Su-27 to MiG-29. His current desire is to have more various weapons, air-to-air and air-to-ground, and upgrade the aiming system for his Su-27. His wish list: F-35 and a Harley motorbike.

View: https://youtu.be/jOcFPnenDXc?si=nzuC-cCBYkWcG9PZ
 

I think the main thing is that this will force an unplanned response. The one thing Russia is guaranteed to overreact to is offensive action across its borders. I'd expect substantial assets to be pushed into the area to delay, stop and reverse any Ukrainian advance.

So that might just relieve pressure on other sections of the front and/or halt some Russian advances. Even if only pulls in minimal ground forces, you can bet that a whole bunch of air, guided munition, drone and long range artillery assets are being tasked with stopping Ukraine around Kursk. And that means that they're not hitting targets supporting Russian attacks elsewhere.

It will also open up valuable Russian assets to attack. If Russia is throwing everything at stopping the advances around Kursk then they're probably not going be as careful/coordinated as normal operations. If I was Ukraine, I'd have a bunch of drones ready and waiting to hit forces moving up from the south. I'd also be putting a bunch of MANPADs into the mix and looking to knock down as many Russian aviation assets as I could. +

Another thing I'll note is that Russia's demands for armistice/peace talks have consistently referenced freezing the lines where they are. If (and that's a really big IF) Ukraine can hold a section of Russian territory, then their negotiating position is totally different. "You want Kursk back, fine. We'll trade you for Donestk"
 
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The Battle of Kursk 2024

A quick assessment of what we know about the surprise Ukrainian assault into Russia, and what might be Ukraine’s strategic and operational objectives.
mickryan.substack.com

Very interesting read. Key points summary:
  • Looks like it's not just a raid with proxy forces - a la 2023 and earlier in 2024 - but a proper ground attack. Depth of penetration was at least 12km as of 12 hours ago.
  • Two Ukrainian mechanised brigades ( 22nd​Mechanized Brigade and the 82nd​ Air Assault Brigade) identified as being involved. To continue the attack beyond the initial phase, Mr Ryan expects follow on forces will be needed (due to the maintenance needs of vehicles).
  • There is a lot of AD capacity being used.

Ryan's speculation on the objectives:
  • Seize ground and destroy Russian ground and aerial forces (basic tactical level).
  • Draw Russian forces away from their attacks on the Niu-York and advances on Toretsk and Pokrovsk (operational level)
  • Force Russia to reconsider force dispositions elsewhere on the front line (operational level)
  • Potentially seize some specific operational objectives
  • Attempt to slow or kill Russian momentum in its offensives (strategic)
  • Shift the narrative on the war to one more positive for Ukraine and counter Russian misinformation about their 'inevitable victory' in Ukraine (strategic)
  • Boost morale in the Ukrainian population (strategic)
  • 'Pull a Russia' and "grab as much territory as possible in case Ukraine is forced into some kind of negotiated settlement at the end of 2024 or in early 2025." (strategic)
 
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