"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (6 Viewers)

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The USA in WW2 peaked at approx 40% of budget. USSR peaked at approx 55% of budget
Are GDP and budget being conflated? IIRC, US defense spending (DoD, Veterans' Affairs, and big chunks of the Dept of Energy; arguably CIA, NSA, and NRO budgets should also be included) is about 40% of the federal budget and about 4% of GDP. Russia may be spending about 30% of its GDP on its military. If so, that's not sustainable. If it's 30% of Russia's government budget, meh.
 

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Putin will claim he will accept nothing less than 100% of Ukraine and the destruction of NATO.

Europe will need a cast iron gaurantee that Putin will keep his sticky claws off the rest of Europe and that Ukraine is part of NATO.

Given Kelloggs claim that Biden and Zelenski started the war and that Putin is the injured party it is not hard to see what Kellogg will push for and the EU will reject.
 
The USA in WW2 peaked at approx 40% of budget. USSR peaked at approx 55% of budget

To derail the thread temporarily - it's amazingly difficult to determine with any accuracy just what proportion of "budget" went to the military at any time during the existence of the USSR. My background is in economic history and I find the ins and outs of the arguments about the details of Soviet military spending a fascinating subject.

US intelligence assessments of military spending in the USSR during the mid 1980s ranged from low end figures in the range of 12-15% of GDP, mid range estimates of 17-24% and upper range estimates in the 30-38% range. In 1985, spending in then current US dollars was estimated at anywhere as low as $175 billion all the way up to about $330 billion.

From the mid 1970s and into the tail end of the 1980s, the CIA and DIA were basically at loggerheads with academics and economists about how to properly estimate the size of the Soviet economy and what the actual level of spending was that they were lavishing on the military. The intelligence agencies generally gave quite low GNP estimates but figured that military spending was 50% of the state budget, or a little more. The academics were a bit more varied, their GNP estimates had a much greater range (as little as 1/2 of that of the intelligent agencies to 3x as much) and their estimates of military spending were generally much more conservative. However, there was also some very outspoken academics who thought the CIA/DIA methodoligies were underestimating Soviet GNP and military spending.

If anyone feels like chasing some odd rabbits down weird holes:


EDIT: For anyone that reads Russian (or has a good machine translator they like), here's some Russian estimates about defense spending:

 
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Are GDP and budget being conflated? IIRC, US defense spending (DoD, Veterans' Affairs, and big chunks of the Dept of Energy; arguably CIA, NSA, and NRO budgets should also be included) is about 40% of the federal budget and about 4% of GDP.

Defense spending did peak at above 40% of GDP in 1943-44. At least according to the estimates from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis:

"WWII stands out as an abnormal period: In 1943 and 1944, more than 40% of GDP was devoted to national defense. Total spending on national defense from 1940 and 1945 was a little over $5 trillion.1​ This represents about a quarter of 2018 GDP. (The numbers for 2019 GDP are not final yet.)"

Source: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/february/war-highest-defense-spending-measured

Russia may be spending about 30% of its GDP on its military. If so, that's not sustainable. If it's 30% of Russia's government budget, meh.

Russia is borrowing from its future to pay for its present, but it's spending isn't that high.

Officially, about 6-6.5% of Russia's GDP is being spent on defense. That's about 40% of the official state budget.

However, that figure is built around an unrealistic expectation of a 30% increase in national GDP in 2024. In all likelihood, GDP growth will be more like 3-4% in 2024. Which means that defense spending will probably be more like 8%+.

However, that doesn't include a lot of Russia's indirect military spending. A bunch of state money is flowing out into the arms production and related sectors like automotive manufacturing and electronics, but is being classified as 'industrial' spending.

Then there are all the funds that are being spent to offset the negative effects if the war on the economy. Russia's central bank is pumping out money (sending inflation and rates soaring) and is also spending foreign currency reserves to try and keep the economy stable and stop the ruble from collapsing further. One estimate is that around 11% of state spending has gone towards these efforts since 2022, and much more will be needed to keep the economy on a roughly even keel.

However, not everything is rosy for those of us supporting Ukraine. Russia's debt to GDP levels are still WAY below that of developed nations and it still has ~$150-200 billion in national wealth funds and oil profit investment funds that it can tap to help pay the price for the war in the short term. However, the economic situation for Russia looks worse with each passing day - this is an economy that is being kept aloft by huge government spending on the war and the long the war goes on, the more damage will happen to the Russian economy when the war eventually stops.
 

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