"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (2 Viewers)

[Warspite63]

View: https://youtu.be/oNSgxKw6-Rk

That's a really interesting clip - it ties the loss of the 2 tankers directly to the need to build a boom to protect the Kerch Bridge from waterborne attack. This barrier prevented large ships from traversing the Kerch Strait, forcing the use of smaller vessels not suited to these waters. So, the 2 ships were clearly lost as a result of Ukrainian actions

 

[buffnut453]

That's a really interesting clip - it ties the loss of the 2 tankers directly to the need to build a boom to protect the Kerch Bridge from waterborne attack. This barrier prevented large ships from traversing the Kerch Strait, forcing the use of smaller vessels not suited to these waters. So, the 2 ships were clearly lost as a result of Ukrainian actions

His argument is somewhat undermined by reports of a similar event in 2007 in the same area, plus footage of another structural failure to a Russian vessel off Turkey in January 2021. Both these events pre-date the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I'd want to see statistical data to prove that Russia is increasing use of inland/river vessels in the Black Sea to be sure his statements are correct.

 

[Warspite63]

His argument is somewhat undermined by footage of a similar event in 2007 in the same area, plus footage of another structural failure to a Russian vessel off Turkey in January 2021. Both these events pre-date the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I'd want to see statistical data to prove that Russia is increasing use of inland/river vessels in the Black Sea to be sure his statements are correct.

Oh absolutely. But the vessels are clearly inland-waterway ships, not intended for open-ocean use. Yes, they have previously (i.e. pre-2014) been used in the Black Sea (with sub-optimal results....) , but I think the key point is that now they have no choice but to use them there: more capable, larger vessels cannot transit the Kerch Strait. The fellow in the clip made another interesting point: even prior to February 2022, the Russians were acutely aware of the Ukrainian potential ability to close the Sea of Azov, due to their possession of the northern shore

 

[buffnut453]

Oh absolutely. But the vessels are clearly inland-waterway ships, not intended for open-ocean use. Yes, they have previously (i.e. pre-2014) been used in the Black Sea (with sub-optimal results....) , but I think the key point is that now they have no choice but to use them there: more capable, larger vessels cannot transit the Kerch Strait. The fellow in the clip made another interesting point: even prior to February 2022, the Russians were acutely aware of the Ukrainian potential ability to close the Sea of Azov, due to their possession of the northern shore

His point about Russia's seizure of Mariupol to prevent Ukraine from effectively closing approaches to the Sea of Azov was certainly something I hadn't considered. That said, I'm still confused at the logic of preventing deep draught vessels from entering the Kerch Strait when Ukrainian USVs don't fit that criteria. Surely the Russians are able to establish a suitable screen to prevent Ukraine from trying to destroy the Kerch bridge with a larger vessel? I mean, removable harbour screens have been around since WW1. Yes, the Kerch Strait is considerably wider than the average harbour...but preventing large vessels from entering the Sea of Azov seems to be a self-inflicted injury by Moscow (although, admittedly, not the first and probably not the last).

 

[Warspite63]

His point about Russia's seizure of Mariupol to prevent Ukraine from effectively closing approaches to the Sea of Azov was certainly something I hadn't considered. That said, I'm still confused at the logic of preventing deep draught vessels from entering the Kerch Strait when Ukrainian USVs don't fit that criteria. Surely the Russians are able to establish a suitable screen to prevent Ukraine from trying to destroy the Kerch bridge with a larger vessel? I mean, removable harbour screens have been around since WW1. Yes, the Kerch Strait is considerably wider than the average harbour...but preventing large vessels from entering the Sea of Azov seems to be a self-inflicted injury by Moscow (although, admittedly, not the first and probably not the last).

Yes - it's a good question. As you pointed out, stopping deep-draught vessels from traversing the Strait is solving a problem that doesn't exist. I believe they actually scuttled a mothballed Kara-class CG in the Strait during the 2014 incursions to (temporarily) prevent access. I get the distinct impression that subtlety and forward-thinking are not prized attributes of Russian military planning