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The opposite might be true, too. Has Taiwan
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The opposite might be true, too. Has TaiwanAnd --
HONG KONG/BEIJING, April 29 (Reuters) - From countering a Western "information war" during a Taiwan conflict to using "shock and awe" to swiftly subdue the island's forces, Chinese strategists are soaking up lessons from Russia's Ukrainian quagmire, diplomats, scholars and analysts say.
Chinese military experts are discussing the conflict in private chat groups, offering their takes on Western involvement in Ukraine and Russia's perceived failings, say two scholars and four Asian and Western diplomats who are in touch with Chinese strategists.
[...]
"China probably should think about conducting a much stronger and much more comprehensive operation at the very beginning to shock and awe the Taiwanese forces to secure a major advantage," Zhao said, referring to observations from Chinese strategists.
They believe securing that advantage would "deter enemy forces from being willing to intervene", he said.
Singapore-based scholar Collin Koh said such an approach would create its own problems for China's People's Liberation Army.
"If you are going to 'shock and awe' Taiwan with overwhelming force in the initial stages, there might be a lot of civilian casualties," said Koh, of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. That would make occupation difficult and harden international opposition.
[...]
Chinese strategists also worry about how Russia is contending with indirect Western military assistance, a factor China would also face in a Taiwan scenario, say two scholars and four diplomats.
Chinese experts are privately arguing about the need for Beijing to better compete in the so-called information war, which has complicated Russia's position on the battlefield, Zhao said.
Besides isolating Russia economically, Western diplomatic efforts - and reporting on atrocities in the war zone - have made it easier to provide aid for Ukraine and harder for Russia to find outside support.
[...]
"Taiwan would present a far greater logistical challenge than Ukraine, and to ready an invasion force on that scale undetected would be incredibly difficult," said Alexander Neill, who runs a strategic consultancy in Singapore.
[...]
Chinese analysts worry a Chinese invasion across the Taiwan Strait - widely seen as a far greater military challenge - would face similar problems, as it requires smooth co-operation across its recently formed Southern, Eastern and Northern Theatre Commands.
Russia's forces in Ukraine have had command breakdowns and low morale. Analysts say it's unclear how Chinese troops - untested since they invaded northern Vietnam in 1979 - would perform in a modern conflict.
Analysis: Russia's Ukrainian quagmire providing tough lessons for China
From countering a Western "information war" during a Taiwan conflict to using "shock and awe" to swiftly subdue the island's forces, Chinese strategists are soaking up lessons from Russia's Ukrainian quagmire, diplomats, scholars and analysts say.www.reuters.com
On the one hand, China has the opportunity to learn from Russian mistakes. On the other hand, amphibious assault is one of the toughest evolutions even in peacetime exercises, much less under fire. Much of it depends upon Taiwanese determination and the fighting qualities of the individual Chinese soldier.
The opposite might be true, too. Has Taiwanthe espirit des corps as well? It's one thing to have cool gear but it's the guys wielding it that matters. Does Taiwan train with other nations (I'm thinking Cobra Gold)? I haven't been following in
Not sure if the four smart micro-munitions the Bayraktar carries (50 lbs apiece) would be able to overcome this ... I guess a lot would depend upon the damage-control practiced by the sub's crew.
You sure??? - I think those involved in every-days military issues have been aware about this since the 70's.Lesson one. I think Ministries of Defence, General Staff and troops across the West were shocked at just how sh#ttily equipped the supposed all powerful Russian army, air force and navy is. How such a massive misjudgment of capabilities slipped past IDK, maybe it was echoed by the lobbyists selling arms to the West.
There used to be quite a frequent exchange with ASEAN countries - foremost Singapore. But upon China waving the $$ this has more or less all gone down to zero, since 2000The opposite might be true, too. Has Taiwanthe espirit des corps as well? It's one thing to have cool gear but it's the guys wielding it that matters. Does Taiwan train with other nations (I'm thinking Cobra Gold)? I haven't been following this too closely.
Like I said - none of these two wants to get into a war with each other - after all they really are the same people and mostly family related on both sides of the straits.I know that as of last year we had US GIs on the island helping to train Taiwanese.To what capability, and in what capacity, I'm not sure.
The US has been secretly maintaining a small contingent of military trainers in Taiwan for at least a year, according to a new report, the latest sign of the rising stakes in US-China rivalry.
About two dozen US special forces soldiers and an unspecified number of marines are now training Taiwanese forces, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. The trainers were first sent to Taiwan by the Trump administration but their presence had not been reported until now.
The report came as President Tsai Ing-wen said on Friday that Taiwan will "do whatever it takes to defend its freedom and democratic way of life".
"Taiwan does not seek military confrontation," she told a security forum in Taipei. "It hopes for a peaceful, stable, predictable and mutually beneficial coexistence with its neighbours. But Taiwan will also do whatever it takes to defend its freedom and democratic way of life."
Secret group of US military trainers has been in Taiwan for at least a year
Small contingent of US special forces and marines training local forces in latest sign of rising US-China tensionswww.theguardian.com
I'd be willing to bet after seeing how what was left of democracy in Hong Kong gt snuffed out in the last 18 months that the Taiwanese will be motivated fighters.
According to the Taipei Times:
Most Taiwanese, or 72.5 percent, are willing to fight for the nation in the event that China uses force to achieve unification, a poll released yesterday by the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy found.
However, asked whether they would fight against China if it attacked after Taiwan declared independence, the percentage of respondents who said they would fight fell to 62.7 percent, while 26.7 percent said they would not fight and 10.6 percent had no response, foundation president Huang Yu-lin (黃玉霖) told a news conference in Taipei hosted by the government-affiliated foundation.
The results suggest that the proportion of Taiwanese opposing unification is larger than those advocating Taiwanese independence, said Eric Yu (俞振華), a research fellow at National Chengchi University's (NCCU) Election Study Center.
Poll says 72.5% of Taiwanese willing to fight against forced unification by China - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwanwww.taipeitimes.com
Considering Taiwan's rough terrain, I don't doubt that those Taiwanese willing to fight it out could give the Chinese a bloody nose.
Like I said - none of these two wants to get into a war with each other - after all they really are the same people and mostly family related on both sides of the straits.
Basically agreed. However maybe existing political hawks in Beijing - studying NATO's initial mistakes followed by slow motion and hesitant response, and further taking NATO's nowAgreed, the Taiwanese want to be left alone, and the Chinese tend to prefer relatively-peaceful long-term designs for attaining foreign-policy objectives.
If the Chinese had plans and processes moving forward for invading Taiwan (not something in a file-cabinet, but actively preparing) then the Russian invasion of Ukraine probably added a decade to that timetable by dint of the overwhelming response shown by the world to naked aggression. This flexing of soft power is probably giving them second thoughts about any potential invasion.
Basically agreed. However maybe existing political hawks in Beijing - studying NATO's initial mistakes followed by slow motion and hesitant response, and further taking NATO's now
ever increasing financial burden into account, might even encourage them to say - now or never. But okay that is just an assumption of mine and not necessarily matching China's long-term play (30-50 years) in regards to Taiwan.
Sobering read:
What’s Putin’s Next Move? Look to Syria
Russia has learned some dangerous lessons from the West’s inaction in the past. Here’s how to avoid a grimmer tragedy in Ukraine.www.politico.com
The following is from the UK MOD which sees to support the above (albeit in less detail)US DOD reporting more schedule problems for the Russian assaults in the east:
The Russian campaign to seize control of the Donbas region is behind schedule and moving slowly, a senior US defence official has said.
Fierce resistance from Ukrainian troops and caution after Russia's failure to capture Kyiv has led to "slow and uneven progress" in the region, the Pentagon believes.
The official said Russian troops are wary of getting ahead of their supply lines, adding: "We believe that essentially what they're doing is continuing to set conditions for a sustained and larger and longer offensive."
The Pentagon believes the Russians "are at least several days behind where they wanted to be," the official said.
Moscow has 92 battalion tactical groups in the east and south of Ukraine now, with more poised on the Russian side of the border, according to the US department of defence.
But those groups are not necessarily full-strength after significant setbacks in the first weeks of the invasion, the official said.
Russia's not in the EU (see Country profiles) and hasn't been.Same goes for Putin, an EU member, working democracy in Ukraine spells disaster for any hopes of keeping Russia as an autocratic, corrupt state.
I certainly agree that the F35 would pretty much destroy the Soviet aircraft I think its a bit strong to say that an F16 could progress to an F35 but a Mig 29 pilot couldn'tAnd...
F-35 Pilot: NATO Could ‘Completely Destroy the Russian Forces’
Pilot Billie Flynn has done it all in the F-35 ... but not everyone is going to like what he has to say.www.yahoo.com
Russia's not in the EU (see Country profiles) and hasn't been.
I certainly agree that the F35 would pretty much destroy the Soviet aircraft I think its a bit strong to say that an F16 could progress to an F35 but a Mig 29 pilot couldn't