"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (41 Viewers)

[Jagdflieger]

Well, there's a huge difference here - I have provided a legal analysis that covers what Turkey is doing, how far they have pushed Artical 19 and what motive may be behind it.

You have provided your opinion.

If shaking one's head could be considered laughing, then I am laughing - slowly...

"yawn"

 

[Jagdflieger]

There have been numerous studies done by the US and NATO relative to the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The thing to remember about the situation in the Black Sea, is that unless the US and/or NATO wish to go to full scale war with Russia, they cannot attack (unprovoked) the Black Sea Fleet ships. There is no need to have any US or NATO ships in the Black Sea, at least not in a military sense, unless the US and/or NATO are planning on imminent attack.

Plus, if the US and/or NATO wanted to attack/neutralize/destroy the Black Sea Fleet, they would not have to use naval forces to do so. Aircraft flying from land bases using air-launched anti-ship weapons (ie ~Harpoon, Tomahawk, HARM), along with surface ship and submarine launched Tomahawk cruise missiles, would clear the Russian ships from the open sea in very short order. Their only hope of having surface ships surviving any length of time would be to retreat to their harbours under protection of Russian Air Force and land-based AA systems.

In studies during the height of the later Cold War period, the best the Soviet Navy ever achieved was to have a significant number of its submarines survive past the death of their surface fleet. The best the Soviet surface fleet ever managed was to have 10% of its surface combat ships survive past 2 weeks. This was assuming that the Soviet surface navy sortied to attack the US and/or NATO surface and submarine units, while also helping their submarine fleet deploy under a protective umbrella. This was also assuming that it was a conventional war, and that there was some warning and therefore time for both sides to prepare.

As an added bit of info, the US all by itself (with some lead time) currently has the ability to deliver ~180 (or more) Harpoon and/or Tomahawk anti-ship missiles on target anywhere in the world on the open seas or in coastal waters. All arriving on target within a couple of minutes if so desired.

Agreed, but NATO members bringing in their own combat naval assets into the Black Sea to actively participate in a war against Russia isn't the issue - at least not for now.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

All this yawning going on is making me super tired.

 

[vikingBerserker]

If you don';t first succeed, certainly don't do the same idiotic thing.

Russia makes second failed attempt at crossing Ukrainian river

Russian troops launched a second mission to cross the Donets River near Bilohorivka on Thursday, Ukraine said, in an attempt to rescue troops stranded during the first failed attempt.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Glider]

All this yawning going on is making me super tired.

I just came around, did I miss anything?

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

I just came around, did I miss anything?

Not at all…

 

[Glider]

If you don';t first succeed, certainly don't do the same idiotic thing.

Russia makes second failed attempt at crossing Ukrainian river

Russian troops launched a second mission to cross the Donets River near Bilohorivka on Thursday, Ukraine said, in an attempt to rescue troops stranded during the first failed attempt.

www.dailymail.co.uk

It isn't just the fact they tried it, there can only have been negligible if any preparation.

I am no military mastermind, but where was the recce to see what forces the Ukrainian Army might have waiting for them. Where were the initial crossings by assault boats and amphibious tanks to hold an initial bridgehead, where was the air cover and AA defences because once found, a pontoon bridge was guaranteed to attract attention like insects to a honey pot, and where was the artillery support.

There is no sign of any of it

 

[vikingBerserker]

Ukraine is going to end up financing their war selling Russian military scrap

 

[RogerdeLluria]

On Wednesday somebody wrote that on another forum stating that it's known inside Russia.
- General Valery Gerasimov was FIRED today Officially. Also Russian official said that he will be locked at home.
- General which is in Command in Ukraine east front , region Izyum, Luhansk, Donestsk was taken down and he will be Prosecuted for Incompetence and Treason
- In Military there is BIG Conflict going on with Putin circle at the moment.
I dismissed the info as low credibility (after all it is the third time a rumor circulates about Gerasimov being fired or home arrested since the start of the war).
However, today a found this couple pieces of news that sustain some of that info.

Putin 'purges military top brass as General Gerasimov is suspended'

Oleksiy Arestovych, a veteran of Ukraine's military intelligence and one of President Zelensky's inner circle, suggested Wednesday that General Gerasimov had been suspended.

www.dailymail.co.uk

‘They were furious’: the Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine

Troops are saying no to officers, knowing that punishment is light while Russia is not technically at war

www.theguardian.com

 

[RogerdeLluria]

 

[Jagdflieger]

- General Valery Gerasimov was FIRED today Officially. Also Russian official said that he will be locked at home.

Hopefully the Ukrainians via back channels in the Kremlin can persuade Putin to reinstall him

 

[RogerdeLluria]

So beautiful !!! Can't stop watching again and again.

By the way, regarding this Russian tank being blown right in front of a Chinese TV. Besides the beautiful turret jump. What actually is of interest is where it happened.

Everything suggests its an action of guerrilla warfare infiltrated well deep into Russian controlled territory. Worth reading whole thread.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

If you don';t first succeed, certainly don't do the same idiotic thing.

Russia makes second failed attempt at crossing Ukrainian river

Russian troops launched a second mission to cross the Donets River near Bilohorivka on Thursday, Ukraine said, in an attempt to rescue troops stranded during the first failed attempt.

www.dailymail.co.uk

A spanish expression says "No hay dos sin tres" (there is no two without three). The english equivalent expression would be "these things always come in threes".
Apparently they tried a third time

 

[SaparotRob]

Anyone have any idea how long Russia can keep lobbing Smerch missiles? I'm hoping the vaunted Russian military industrial complex can't keep up.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Can I say, that China is very appreciative about yours and Graugeist's opinion and conviction towards freedom of passage and access towards controlled/possessed waters?

Nowhere did I say I approved of this action, so I don't know where you get off lobbing this imputation around. I am only pointing out a brute fact.

Being the USA, I would be very concerned at the least about Turkey's disregard for the Montreux Convention - especially if hindering NATO war-vessels from traveling to other threatened NATO countries. and being the USA I couldn't give a rats ass about Turkeys - unproven - claim of fearing an imminent war with Russia. Since the Baltic states are far closer to Russia and are willing to support NATO respectively the Ukrainian government and even Finland willing to take the Russian threats by applying to join NATO.

This scenario is unlikely to come to pass, because Turkey is itself a member of NATO.

Daily Intel and NATO surveillance has not come up with any indications about Russia preparing for a war with Turkey on or near it's border. (especially since they do not even share a common land border). And in words or in regards to possession of missiles, Putin has made already enough threats towards all those supporting the Ukraine.

Agreed, Putin isn't widening this war with anyone -- his incompetent military has its hands full with Ukraine alone.

Erdogan is just another lame dictator and war-criminal helping Putin to solidify Russia's naval advantage in the Black Sea.

Nuff said, and I will retire now from this specific topic......

I share your distaste for Erdogan, but I doubt he's closed the straits to help Putin. After all, their closure prevents Russia from replacing Moskva with another Slava.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

I am no military mastermind, but where was the recce to see what forces the Ukrainian Army might have waiting for them. Where were the initial crossings by assault boats and amphibious tanks to hold an initial bridgehead, where was the air cover and AA defences because once found, a pontoon bridge was guaranteed to attract attention like insects to a honey pot, and where was the artillery support.

You don't suppose there were no nearby Ukranian ground troops and the Ruskys thought they could pull off a sneaky-poo crossing unobserved? The low tech warfare mindset might lack imagination of what a drone-directed long range artillery battery with smart munitions and first shot targeting capacity can do. "Dang! There go the goalposts again! How'd they get this stuff? Effing magic!"

 

[buffnut453]

You don't suppose there were no nearby Ukranian ground troops and the Ruskys thought they could pull off a sneaky-poo crossing unobserved? The low tech warfare mindset might lack imagination of what a drone-directed long range artillery battery with smart munitions and first shot targeting capacity can do. "Dang! There go the goalposts again! How'd they get this stuff? Effing magic!"

It seems the Russian Army likes to conduct "recce by fire" or, in other words, advance until you get shot at. That very much aligns with Soviet-era doctrine of reinforcing success, whereby if a unit is able to advance more than others, then throw your weight behind it and encircle any pockets of resistance so they wither on the vine. That's all well and good in theory but it's very costly in practice...and it really only works if you have the Soviet-era "human wave" scale of forces at your disposal. Russia doesn't have that size of military...hence why this is hurting them so much.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

It seems the Russian Army likes to conduct "recce by fire" or, in other words, advance until you get shot at. That very much aligns with Soviet-era doctrine of reinforcing success, whereby if a unit is able to advance more than others, then throw your weight behind it and encircle any pockets of resistance so they wither on the vine. That's all well and good in theory but it's very costly in practice...and it really only works if you have the Soviet-era "human wave" scale of forces at your disposal. Russia doesn't have that size of military...hence why this is hurting them so much.

"Hold your fire til you see the whites of their eyes. Then obliterate 'em!"

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Russian forces likely control almost all of Rubizhne as of

www.understandingwar.org

Who said Russians cannot adapt?

In February their goal was to take Kiev in 3 days, install a puppet regime and grab half of Ukraine, including all the south bridging with Transnistria. We all know how that ended.
Since then they have been progressively adapting to their capabilities. An image is better than anything I can write. (map annotations in French I think.)

 

[XBe02Drvr]

seems the Russian Army likes to conduct "recce by fire" or, in other words, advance until you get shot at.

Funny, I always heard "recce by fire" meant to spray the jungle 'til Charlie shoots back, then call in air and nape 'em.