"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (6 Viewers)

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Even as Moscow's war machine crawls across Ukraine's east, trying to achieve the Kremlin's goal of securing full control over the country's industrial heartland, Ukrainian forces are scaling up attacks to reclaim territory in the Russian-occupied south.

The Ukrainians have used American-supplied rocket launchers to strike bridges and military infrastructure in the south, forcing Russia to divert its forces from the Donbas in the east to counter the new threat.

With the war in Ukraine now in its sixth month, the coming weeks may prove decisive.

[...]

Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov noted that by stepping up the attacks in the south, Kyiv has forced Russia to spread its forces.

"The Russian military command has been put before a dilemma: to try to press the offensive in the Donetsk region or build up defenses in the south," Zhdanov said. "It's going to be difficult for them to perform both tasks simultaneously for a long time."

He noted that rather than trying to mount a massive, all-out counteroffensive, the Ukrainians have sought to undermine the Russian military in the south with a series of strikes on its munitions and fuel depots and other key sites.

"It doesn't have to be a head-on attack," Zhdanov noted.

[...]

In a series of attacks that helped boost the country's morale, the Ukrainians repeatedly used HIMARS to strike a key bridge across the Dnieper River in the Kherson region, cutting traffic across it and raising potential supply problems for Russian forces in the area.

Zhdanov, the Ukrainian military analyst, described the bridge as the key link for supplying Russian forces on the right bank of the Dnieper.

Russia still can use a second crossing on the Dnieper to ferry supplies and reinforcements to its troops in Kherson, which lies just north of the Crimean Peninsula, seized by Russia in 2014. But Ukraine's strikes have shown Russia's vulnerability and weakened its hold on the region.

"The Russians have the river at their back. That's not a great place to be defending," Crump said. "They can't get supplies easily. The morale is probably quite low at this point on that side of the river."


 
The Anschluss meant that Austria was part of the German Reich. It, like Nebraska, wasn't a belligerent because it was not an independent sovereign state.
The "annexation" of Austria was encouraged by the German Army, who crossed into Austria the day before the public vote on Austria's possible unification with Germany.
A vote against, was not a wise nor healthy decision.

There was also the Sudentenland as well as the "protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia", but the Czechs don't seem to be punished for that.
 
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The US is deploying ~1/2 of the 90th Fighter Squadron (based at Elmendorf AFB in Alaska) to Poland for the next few months (at least). The current plan is to rotate aircraft from the squadron along with elements of the 302nd Fighter Squadron (Reserve) after the 302nd has time to prepare.

Note that both squadrons are equipped with F-22.
 
The US is deploying ~1/2 of the 90th Fighter Squadron (based at Elmendorf AFB in Alaska) to Poland for the next few months (at least). The current plan is to rotate aircraft from the squadron along with elements of the 302nd Fighter Squadron (Reserve) after the 302nd has time to prepare.

Note that both squadrons are equipped with F-22.

That's my girl… :D
 
Even as Moscow's war machine crawls across Ukraine's east, trying to achieve the Kremlin's goal of securing full control over the country's industrial heartland, Ukrainian forces are scaling up attacks to reclaim territory in the Russian-occupied south.

The Ukrainians have used American-supplied rocket launchers to strike bridges and military infrastructure in the south, forcing Russia to divert its forces from the Donbas in the east to counter the new threat.

With the war in Ukraine now in its sixth month, the coming weeks may prove decisive.
The Colonel called it correctly, saying "it's going to get worse" once Lend Lease is underway.

 
More goodies to support the UAF's new offensives.



 
The bridging equipment will be extremely helpful, especially since since it can handle Leopard II, Challenger and Abram tanks should they appear.
Agreed, but Jeez, get on with it!

"The first six systems are due to be delivered later this year, and 10 more systems will follow next year, Germany's Federal Minister of Defense Christine Lambrecht said."
 
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I came across this article thanks to a work colleague. It's an analysis of the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy. I've included the authors so you can be confident these aren't a bunch of propagandists touting opinions rather than fact-based analysis. Each of the main bullets in the summary below is further expounded in the actual paper....but this summary is probably good enough for most of us on here:

Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy:
Measures of Current Economic Activity and Economic Outlook Point to Devastating Impact on Russia


Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld
Founder & President, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Senior Associate Dean, Lester Crown Professor of Management Practice, Yale School of Management

Steven Tian
Director of Research, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Yale University

Franek Sokolowski
Research Fellow in Business & Economics, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Yale University

Michal Wyrebkowski
Research Assistant in Energy, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
University of Pennsylvania, Wharton Business School

Mateusz Kasprowicz
Research Assistant, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Warsaw School of Economics

July 2022

Introduction:

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow devolved into a "war of economic attrition which is taking its toll on the west", given the supposed "resilience" and even "prosperity" of the Russian economy. This is simply untrue – and a reflection of widely held but factually incorrect misunderstandings over how the Russian economy is actually holding up amidst the exodus of over 1,000 global companies and international sanctions.

That these misunderstandings persist is not surprising. Since the invasion, the Kremlin's economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin – which we explain further in Section I of this paper.

Our team of experts, using Russian language and unconventional data sources including high frequency consumer data, cross-channel checks, releases from Russia's international trade partners, and data mining of complex shipping data, have released one of the first comprehensive economic analyses measuring Russian current economic activity five months into the invasion, and assessing Russia's economic outlook.

From our analysis, it becomes clear: business retreats and sanctions are crippling the Russian economy, in the short-term, and the long-term. We tackle a wide range of common misperceptions – and shed light on what is actually going on inside Russia, including:

- Russia's strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a "pivot to Asia" with non-fungible exports such as piped gas.

- Despite some lingering supply chain leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy.


- Despite Putin's delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia's domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst.

- As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades' worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia's economic base.

- Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood.

- Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy.

- Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia.

Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia's economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.
 
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I came across this article thanks to a work colleague. It's an analysis of the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy. I've included the authors so you can be confident these aren't a bunch of propagandists touting opinions rather than fact-based analysis. Each of the main bullets in the summary below is further expounded in the actual paper....but this summary is probably good enough for most of us on here:

Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy:
Measures of Current Economic Activity and Economic Outlook Point to Devastating Impact on Russia


Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld
Founder & President, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Senior Associate Dean, Lester Crown Professor of Management Practice, Yale School of Management

Steven Tian
Director of Research, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Yale University

Franek Sokolowski
Research Fellow in Business & Economics, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Yale University

Michal Wyrebkowski
Research Assistant in Energy, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
University of Pennsylvania, Wharton Business School

Mateusz Kasprowicz
Research Assistant, Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute
Warsaw School of Economics

July 2022

Introduction:

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow devolved into a "war of economic attrition which is taking its toll on the west", given the supposed "resilience" and even "prosperity" of the Russian economy. This is simply untrue – and a reflection of widely held but factually incorrect misunderstandings over how the Russian economy is actually holding up amidst the exodus of over 1,000 global companies and international sanctions.

That these misunderstandings persist is not surprising. Since the invasion, the Kremlin's economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin – which we explain further in Section I of this paper.
Our team of experts, using Russian language and unconventional data sources including high frequency consumer data, cross-channel checks, releases from Russia's international trade partners, and data mining of complex shipping data, have released one of the first comprehensive economic analyses measuring Russian current economic activity five months into the invasion, and assessing Russia's economic outlook.

From our analysis, it becomes clear: business retreats and sanctions are crippling the Russian economy, in the short-term, and the long-term. We tackle a wide range of common misperceptions – and shed light on what is actually going on inside Russia, including:

- Russia's strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a "pivot to Asia" with non-fungible exports such as piped gas.

- Despite some lingering supply chain leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy.


- Despite Putin's delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia's domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst.

- As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades' worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia's economic base.

- Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood.

- Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy.

- Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia.

Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia's economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes.

I'm no economist, but I understand enough of that to think they've got a shitshow in front of them.
 
I was just talking to a retired investment banker about this very subject, and his opinion on the current events put Russia's situation in a nutshell:
"...in less than a half a year, Putin has transformed Russia from a first world nation to a third world nation.
They are nothing more than a paper Tiger and if Russia is to regain their place on the world stage, it will take considerable effort and most likely without Putin at the helm..."
 
I was just talking to a retired investment banker about this very subject, and his opinion on the current events put Russia's situation in a nutshell:
"...in less than a half a year, Putin has transformed Russia from a first world nation to a third world nation.
They are nothing more than a paper Tiger and if Russia is to regain their place on the world stage, it will take considerable effort and most likely without Putin at the helm..."

The money-drain they are experiencing right now spells the end of further development. I think they're eating seed-corn in this war they've started. No replacing losses, Putin unwilling to institute a draft for political reasons, major internationals refusing to invest into a sanctioned country. The oil they are actually able to sell is well below market-value for the same reason, and that has been their most-valuable commodity export for a couple of decades now. Big hit.

I think Russia has cornered itself, and that at this point the war is, in Putin's mind, a fight for personal survival, because once the cards collapse his house is gone.
 

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