"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (6 Viewers)

[Glider]

Understandably we have been looking at the impact on Russia and the Ukraine from a military perspective. However, there are other hugely negative impacts on Russia which are not as obvious.

The following article outlines how Russia's lack of success is impacting it's influence and power in other nations, even those traditionally seen as being 'friendly' to Russia

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[WARSPITER]

Understandably we have been looking at the impact on Russia and the Ukraine from a military perspective. However, there are other hugely negative impacts on Russia which are not as obvious.

The following article outlines how Russia's lack of success is impacting it's influence and power in other nations, even those traditionally seen as being 'friendly' to Russia

MSN

www.msn.com

Yes. Putin is really going to have trouble building new diplomatic 'bridges'.

 

[Dimlee]

Another theory about the bridge. Hard to believe, but who knows. I'm not convinced about the "truck theory" either.

Ukraine hit Crimean bridge with missiles, but Russia invents tales about truck - Zhdanov - Ukraine Today .org

According to him, the nature of the destruction indicates a synchronized missile strike. The Russians lie that the Crimean bridge was destroyed by a truck explosion. In fact, it was a missile strike. This opinion was expressed by military expert Oleg Zhdanov in an interview with Glavred...

ukrainetoday.org

The truck theory is not very convincing if we look at the pictures/videos of the results. I could understand the fire of rail tanks but not the collapse of two bridge spans. And suicidal missions are not the style of Ukrainian services.

 

[Dimlee]

Deepfake is not a joke, indeed.
Russian "pranksters" (more likely, FSB or GRU operatives) tried to arrange a video call with the Turkish Baykar Defence's CEO, pretending to be the Ukrainian Prime Minister. Ukrainian GUR (military intelligence) got involved and played the role of CEO's assistant.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Most plausible theory so far, it was an accident !

 

[ThomasP]

I can not say for sure that it was a truck bomb, but . . .

The spans where the blast occurred are deck type construction (ie the spans are self supporting, with the ends resting on piers).

A semi-trailer could easily hold 10-15 and maybe 20 tons of explosives.

A blast of that size in the middle of a span could cause a downward movement exceeding what the structure is designed to withstand. Even if it withstood the downward movement it is possible it would not not survive the rebounding upward movement. The blast might also cause a whipping movement in the nearby spans, possibly with enough amplitude to cause unseating and/or failure of the deck structure and/or connectors to adjacent spans/decks. Bridges are designed to resist come up-down and side-side movement, whether due to wind, wave, or seismic forces, but there is a limit.

From the video it appears as if the explosion originated on the vehicle deck, approximately where the truck was. In the images it appears as if the blast took place mid-span, possibly destroying the immediate support structure under the span. The span then slid partially off the nearest(?) pier, the movement causing stresses farther away resulting in failure of the connectors at the end of one adjacent span, and at the end of a span one span removed from the first.

With modern computer modeling of stresses in structures (whether of steel, reinforced concrete, a combination thereof, or a host of other materials/combinations) it would not be too difficult for someone with knowledge of such structures to predict where the blast should be located. If the planners have specific knowledge of the structure it could be relatively easy.

Also, the shockwave from a blast of that size could easily breach nearby tanker cars. In railway disasters involving tanker cars with explosive content there is often a chain reaction where the adjacent cars in the string, or nearby cars on other rails such as in railroad yards, are breached by the explosion of other tanker cars.

 

[ThomasP]

Or, maybe . . .

It was an unmarked Russian AF truck filled with explosives, and there was another cigarette induced thermal event.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Also, the shockwave from a blast of that size could easily breach nearby tanker cars. In railway disasters involving tanker cars with explosive content there is often a chain reaction where the adjacent cars in the string, or nearby cars on other rails such as in railroad yards, are breached by the explosion of other tanker cars.

It'll be flinging a lot of shrapnel too, which would easily penetrate the tank cars depending on what is doing the flying.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The following article outlines how Russia's lack of success is impacting it's influence and power in other nations, even those traditionally seen as being 'friendly' to Russia

Much how Russia's humiliating defeat against Japan in 1905 wrecked the former's reputation as a global power.

Effects of the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905 | World History

worldhistory.us

Russia, led by the weak Tsar Nicholas II, needed a war to instill patriotic feelings among an increasingly restless and revolutionary-minded population. The millions of peasants would follow the Tsar's summons as if it were an order from God, but the same was not true of the more literate urban populations. The legacy of Russian defeat, however, was swiftly turned into internal revolution in what some historians regard as the first phase of the Russian Revolutionary movement that eventually ended Romanov rule in March 1917.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

KYIV, Oct 9 (Reuters) - A Russian missile attack early on Sunday struck an apartment block and other residential buildings in Ukraine's southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia, killing at least 13 people and wounding 87 others, including 10 children, Ukrainian officials said.

The pre-dawn fusillade in Zaporizhzhia on Sunday was the second of its kind against the city in three days.

Russian aircraft launched at least 12 missiles, partially destroying a nine-storey apartment block, levelling five other residential buildings and damaging many more, Oleksandr Starukh, governor of the Zaporizhzhia region, said on state-run television.

At least 13 people died and 87 others were wounded, 60 of whom were hospitalized, regional officials said. The wounded included 10 children.

Russia missile strikes in Zaporizhzhia kill 13

Rail and some road traffic meanwhile resumed after a blast damaged a bridge linking Russia to Crimea that is a key supply route to Moscow's forces battling in southern Ukraine and a symbol of its annexation of the peninsula.

www.reuters.com

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Guess we where all expecting this (this and the toiled paper )

 

[GrauGeist]

And guess what?

The Kerch Straight Ferry service was shut down two years ago!

Kerch Strait ferry line - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Admiral Beez]

KYIV, Oct 9 (Reuters) - A Russian missile attack early on Sunday struck an apartment block and other residential buildings in Ukraine's southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia,

The West needs to provide Ukraine with Iron Dome, Patriots, or other anti-missile systems. Clearly these missile bombardments are some of Russia's only means to strike back.

Fearing of Russia… Israel stops transferring the Iron Dome anti-missile system to Ukraine

syrializm.net

 

[Dimlee]

Much how Russia's humiliating defeat against Japan in 1905 wrecked the former's reputation as a global power.

Effects of the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905 | World History

worldhistory.us

Russia, led by the weak Tsar Nicholas II, needed a war to instill patriotic feelings among an increasingly restless and revolutionary-minded population. The millions of peasants would follow the Tsar's summons as if it were an order from God, but the same was not true of the more literate urban populations. The legacy of Russian defeat, however, was swiftly turned into internal revolution in what some historians regard as the first phase of the Russian Revolutionary movement that eventually ended Romanov rule in March 1917.

What a coincidence. I'm reading the memoirs of Alexandre Benois now.
About the beginning of the Japanese-Russian war:
"The new year 1904 began fortissimo - with a thunder of sudden war with the Japanese...
almost everyone treated it with surprising frivolity - as some kind of trifling adventure, from which Russia cannot but emerge victorious. Think. These impudent Japanese <...> suddenly climbed onto such a colossus as the vast Russian state with its more than one hundred million people. Even then, I, and many others, had a semblance of pity for these "careless madmen." After all, they will be beaten on two counts, because there will be nothing left of them, and if the war spreads to them on the islands, then farewell to all their wonderful art, all their charming culture, which my friends and I have especially grown fond of in recent years." (Google Translate).
And then he wrote that after the defeats, Russian society began to look for explanations in the conspiracy theories.
Very similar to what we observe today.
I like this picture, it reminds me of the mood of the public in Russian Federation in the past February.

 

[Admiral Beez]

 

[Dimlee]

Good article about HIMARS.
"Within minutes, the two Himars rumbled out from cover under an apricot grove toward the launch spot in a nearby sunflower field. Thirty seconds after arriving, they fired seven missiles in quick succession. Before the projectiles hit their targets, the trucks were returning to base camp."
""If I enter the coordinates of this hole," said Lt. Koval, standing by a molehill the size of a shoebox, "it will hit this hole.""

Himars Transform the Battle for Ukraine—and Modern Warfare

The mobile, high-precision U.S. rocket system is thwarting Russia’s invasion as it revolutionizes military strategy.

www.wsj.com

 

[Glider]

Guess we where all expecting this (this and the toiled paper )

Normal day on the M25

 

[Admiral Beez]

Good article about HIMARS.
"Within minutes, the two Himars rumbled out from cover under an apricot grove toward the launch spot in a nearby sunflower field. Thirty seconds after arriving, they fired seven missiles in quick succession. Before the projectiles hit their targets, the trucks were returning to base camp."
""If I enter the coordinates of this hole," said Lt. Koval, standing by a molehill the size of a shoebox, "it will hit this hole.""

Himars Transform the Battle for Ukraine—and Modern Warfare

The mobile, high-precision U.S. rocket system is thwarting Russia’s invasion as it revolutionizes military strategy.

www.wsj.com

Same article passed the pay wall. archive.ph

 

[GrauGeist]

The West needs to provide Ukraine with Iron Dome, Patriots, or other anti-missile systems. Clearly these missile bombardments are some of Russia's only means to strike back.

Fearing of Russia… Israel stops transferring the Iron Dome anti-missile system to Ukraine

syrializm.net

Ukraine has NASAMS, but even if they had Patriots, Iron Dome or other systems, it would require a substantial amount of them, as they would need to cover a large area.

 

[Glider]

Same article passed the pay wall. archive.ph

Thanks for that, much appreciated