"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (16 Viewers)

[ARTESH]

This reminds me of when Hitler pressed Mussolini to declare war on Russia and send troops. The ARMIR did not do well at all, getting massacred. By the time Italy withdrew from Russia in 1943 they'd lost 114,520 of the original 235,000 soldiers, including their general, Paolo Tarnassi.

Belarus will do no better, and would be smarter to just wait this out.

Not much info on both of them, unfortunately, but I think:

Italy was better prepared and better trained, also more experienced, comparing to Belarus, if we compare population, budget and other things, on respective era...

Germany and Italy, WW2
Belarus and Russia, modern days...

 

[ARTESH]

Russia expelled from yet another international organization

Russia expelled from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization of Black Sea Economic Cooperation (PABSEC). Russia expelled

ukrainefrontlines.com

Good news! Sooner or later, putin will put out of action!

 

[Dimlee]

Lurking in the dark... HIMARS The Spooky...

 

[GrauGeist]

I have a feeling that if Lukashenka does order troops into Ukraine, that'll be the end of his presidency.

Putin’s last ally: Why the Belarusian army cannot help Russia in Ukraine

Concerns are mounting that Belarusian troops could join Russia’s forces in Ukraine. But this course of action would be extremely risky – for both Putin and Lukashenka

ecfr.eu

 

[Dimlee]

"The attacks are repeatable. We have no limitation on distance and soon we will be able to reach all targets inside Russia — including in Siberia,"
"The defence adviser, meanwhile, said the drones were neither the Ukroboronprom models nor modified Soviet ones but rather a joint government-private sector initiative that could produce new ones "often"."

FT article:

archive.ph

 

[Admiral Beez]

"The attacks are repeatable. We have no limitation on distance and soon we will be able to reach all targets inside Russia — including in Siberia,"

Then I suggest the Kerch bridge be hit multiple times and irretrievably dropped, this very night.

Crimea bridge: How Russia is rebuilding its vital link

The key route connecting Russia with Crimea was damaged by an explosion in October.

www.bbc.com

Hit it now and you can kill many of the skilled workmen, further hindering future repair attempts.

 

[Glider]

Then I suggest the Kerch bridge be hit multiple times and irretrievably dropped, this very night.

Crimea bridge: How Russia is rebuilding its vital link

The key route connecting Russia with Crimea was damaged by an explosion in October.

www.bbc.com

Hit it now and you can kill many of the skilled workmen, further hindering future repair attempts.

I was thinking of trying to hit the crane barge. They are few and far between bases

 

[SaparotRob]

As long as we're taking requests, the Wagner Headquarters in St. Petersburg. It's Vladolph's home town.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

This reminds me of when Hitler pressed Mussolini to declare war on Russia and send troops. The ARMIR did not do well at all, getting massacred. By the time Italy withdrew from Russia in 1943 they'd lost 114,520 of the original 235,000 soldiers, including their general, Paolo Tarnassi.

Belarus will do no better, and would be smarter to just wait this out.

That's a really apt comparison. The phrase "pulling his chestnuts out of the fire" comes to mind. The only reason this dance is happening is because without Putin's support, Lukashenko is on very shaky ground, after his post-election repressions -- just as Mussolini was reliant on Hitler's support to retain office as long as he did; and even after Musso's deposing, when you consider Skorzeny's rescue raid and the subsequent rump Italian fascist state.

Lukashenko is is a very tight spot: follow Kremlin orders and be deposed, or ignore Kremlin orders and lose the only patron he has and face the Belarusian public by himself, and still probably lose office.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Lukashenko is is a very tight spot: follow Kremlin orders and be deposed, or ignore Kremlin orders and lose the only patron he has and face the Belarusian public by himself, and still probably lose office.

Lukashenko has a path. Retire, announce that you're passing the torch and call new elections. Hit the beach. He hasn't hit Ceauşescu levels of unpopularity yet and will survive just fine.

 

[GrauGeist]

There's still alot of people in prison courtesy of Lukashanka's KGB - I'm sure that t wouldn't take much for the people to round him up and give him a neck-tie party.

And with Putin in the process of getting his ass kicked, can't spare many troops to come save his puppet.

 

[buffnut453]

Got to love this. Putin says the risk of nuclear war is rising but that Russia won't attack first.

Putin: Nuclear risk is rising, but we are not mad

The Russian leader insists his country would only use its nuclear arsenal in response to a strike.

www.bbc.com

If the risk of nuclear war is rising, what and/or who is stoking the escalation? Is it Ukraine (which doesn't have nuclear weapons)? Is it NATO (which is an avowedly defensive organization)?

The amount of spin Putin and his cronies can apply makes me wonder if they're secretly cricket aficionados. Their (message) delivery certainly bamboozles me!

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Lukashenko has a path. Retire, announce that you're passing the torch and call new elections. Hit the beach. He hasn't hit Ceauşescu levels of unpopularity yet and will survive just fine.

Retirement would presumably weaken his security detail.

 

[GrauGeist]

Got to love this. Putin says the risk of nuclear war is rising but that Russia won't attack first.

Putin: Nuclear risk is rising, but we are not mad

The Russian leader insists his country would only use its nuclear arsenal in response to a strike.

www.bbc.com

If the risk of nuclear war is rising, what and/or who is stoking the escalation? Is it Ukraine (which doesn't have nuclear weapons)? Is it NATO (which is an avowedly defensive organization)?

The amount of spin Putin and his cronies can apply makes me wonder if they're secretly cricket aficionados. Their (message) delivery certainly bamboozles me!

Remember, Putin heroically intervened in Ukraine to kill Nazis and stop their biological killing machine.

So of course Ukraine has nukes.
Nazi nukes, delivered by NATO flying saucers going between Kyiv and the secret Nazi base in the Antarctic.

 

[Wildcat]

Another side-effect of Russia's invasion.
Analysis-Vietnam shifts gears on arms trade as it loosens ties with Russia

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Got to love this. Putin says the risk of nuclear war is rising but that Russia won't attack first.

Putin: Nuclear risk is rising, but we are not mad

The Russian leader insists his country would only use its nuclear arsenal in response to a strike.

www.bbc.com

If the risk of nuclear war is rising, what and/or who is stoking the escalation? Is it Ukraine (which doesn't have nuclear weapons)? Is it NATO (which is an avowedly defensive organization)?

The amount of spin Putin and his cronies can apply makes me wonder if they're secretly cricket aficionados. Their (message) delivery certainly bamboozles me!

The key point in that speech of his was, for me, his acknowledgement that this war could go on for a while.

If that's the case, he will have to reconstitute the Russian military under the duress of sanctions, and also means at least one if not more conscriptions aside from the usual two per year -- with all that entails in terms of his domestic support.

It's like he's starting to realize the enormity of his mistake, but knows he doesn't have the ability to undo it. It's a change in tone that I think is significant.

 

[wlewisiii]

A long time ago, another lifetime really (2002), we adopted my son from Vietnam.

Given what I saw in that time and place I have no surprise about them dumping Russia. On their best day? They were "not China". Now? They have some serious money from western companies.

South Korea was seriously evil for most of the time we were supporting them over the north.

Now?

Not so much.

Vietnam could be a very similar "tiger".

 

[Admiral Beez]

he's starting to realize the enormity of his mistake, but knows he doesn't have the ability to undo it.

Agreed. It will be bad for Putin when Ukrainian-built suicide drones and missiles start dropping across Russia. It can't be long before Ukraine strikes SPB or Moscow. How will Putin react then?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Agreed. It will be bad for Putin when Ukrainian-built suicide drones and missiles start dropping across Russia. It can't be long before Ukraine strikes SPB or Moscow. How will Putin react then?

Right, and the people -- how will they react?

As long as Ukraine doesn't attack civilian targets, such a campaign could go a ways to ending Putin's regime, if they indeed can manufacture whatever platform they used in numbers.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

And with that said...

Putin Is Preparing to Flee When Russia Implodes, Ex-Aide Says

Sputnik via ReutersRussia’s Vladimir Putin and his cronies already have a plan in place to flee the country once things go sideways, a former aide to the Russian president has claimed.Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Putin, made the astounding claim on Telegram early Wednesday, citing...

news.yahoo.com