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True, but we've also come to realize that the Russian military is near useless. Is there really any chance of what's left of the Russian armed forces diverting from trying to hold the line in Ukraine to commencing offensive ground ops against NATO in Poland (presumably through Belarus rather than Kaliningrad) or the Baltic Reps, the only parts of NATO they abut? With what?The problem is the idea that NATO nations have lots of "spare" Leo 2s available. Any provision of MBTs will reduce NATO's operational force, at least temporarily.
True, but we've also come to realize that the Russian military is near useless. Is there really any chance of what's left of the Russian armed forces diverting from trying to hold the line in Ukraine to commencing offensive ground ops against NATO in Poland (presumably through Belarus rather than Kaliningrad) or the Baltic Reps, the only parts of NATO they abut? With what?
Firing up the factories to resume production will take time, but to my understanding is being done, at least here in America (e.g. Raytheon and Lockheed restarting Stinger production). I'd be surprised if that wasn't true of other nations and weapons-systems.
Yep...I get all of that. However, re-starting Stinger production is a rather different proposition to re-starting tank production. 4
For example, the UK is sending 12-14 Challenger 2s but, AFAIK, there isn't ongoing production of the type.
As for the Leo 2, the most recent order I can find is by Hungary in 2018 for 44 tanks, with the order due to be fulfilled this year (details are sketchy).
If Leo 2 production is ramping down (likely given Germany-France collaboration on a new tank due to enter service in 2030), then accelerating production will be challenging...and it will require current Leo 2 operators to place orders for replacement tanks.
There are no f#cking cons! JMFC, it's amazing that we could quickly send MLRS but can't send tanks. What special magic do tanks hold over our decision makers?"All pros and cons must be weighed very carefully," Pistorius said, adding that the issue had been discussed on Friday but no decision had been made.
Right, I'm not saying it'll be easy, but I don't imagine a country would denude itself without looking at how to replace donations/sales. They may also be hoping to replace equipment from American tanks in storage, which would have to be refurbed, sure, but that's got to be quicker than ramping a factory back up for new builds.
What's the MANPADS and overall SAM situation on the Russian side? If Ukraine had a fleet of NATO strike fighters, would they survive over the battlefield? The Russian ones certainly don't over the Ukrainian lines.To hell with tanks, Ukraine needs air supremacy.
Potentially....but then you're opening multiple other cans o' worms.
First, there's the political issue. Giving up a European-developed MBT and replacing it with an American one won't necessarily be popular with European voters.
Then there's the combat readiness issue. It will take time to refurb the M1s, then you have to train your personnel on them and realign your logistics chains. I just don't see there being time/capacity to keep current personnel fully trained and maintain materiel resources at sufficient readiness for a viable defence.
Logistics also need to be considered. If the M1s are used to make up piecemeal deliveries of Leo 2s from multiple NATO nations, then each of those nations will have duplicative MBT supply chains which will increase costs...and that will eat into defence expenditure in other areas.
The actual number of Leo 2s available is hard to pin down because Germany is providing old versions to NATO Allies who have provided ex-Soviet equipment to Ukraine, with consequent huge risk of double-counting. Germany is the largest operator of the type, with somewhere in the range 266-328 tanks. A number of NATO Allies have much smaller forces, some fewer than 20 Leo 2s. I'm just not sure where even 300 Leo 2s will come from without impacting the front line.
Notice the Russian aircraft being hit in videos or reports are usually flying low and solitary?What's the MANPADS and overall SAM situation on the Russian side? If Ukraine had a fleet of NATO strike fighters, would they survive over the battlefield? The Russian ones certainly don't over the Ukrainian lines.
All fair points, but I'd imagine that no matter the tank models donated/sold, logistics for the UAF are going to be complicated. But as I noted earlier, refurbing the storage tanks will likely trim time compared to firing up factory lines. The political aspect is a fair point and will have to be hashed-over.
Poland has two sets of Abrams coming:Polands a full NATO member, they got the full fat SepV3's on order.
I find Poland a curious case: They are all vocal with offers to get headlines...but then the fine print comes in. For instance the recent Leo 2 announcement comes with caveats.That is the way to proceed with Switzerland restrictions too.