"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (19 Viewers)

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WARSPITER said:
If the F-16 can survive the red dust in the North of Australia (think talcum powder ground to a finer level) on roads or even prepared strips
then it's tough enough for anywhere else. When that dust gets wet it can be a nice abrasive too.
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And when has this occurred??
 
Admiral Beez said:
Assume the Russians build up sufficient troops and arms to conduct a massive offensive next month or early April 2023, and throws 1/2 million men against Donetsk, forcing the Ukrainians to withdraw to the Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The Russians will lose at least 100k dead and wounded. And now what? What does Russia do once they've run out of gas, food and ammunition?
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What I read this morning shows the Russians with about 330,000 currently in Ukraine, and 150,000 of the conscripts under training. I don't think they'll be able to throw all of them in the East, they'll have to defend Crimea, and will probably keep some troops in Belarus in order to provide a threat-in-being to spread and tie down Ukrainian forces.

If the Ukrainians can get the mobile forces together, inviting the Russians into an encirclement might be fruitful. Or, alternatively, stay on the defensive in the Donets Basin, and drive through Melitopol and begin the liberation of Crimea. That's a big if, though.
 
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According to the Institude for Strategic Studies, Ukraine currently has 700,000 active military personnel, with 1,000,000 in reserve.

As I mentioned earlier, if Ukraine allows Russia to gain ground in certain areas, that creates a "bulge" in the line, which then becomes a ripe fruit for picking by a pincer at the base of the bulge.
 
GrauGeist said:
As I mentioned earlier, if Ukraine allows Russia to gain ground in certain areas, that creates a "bulge" in the line, which then becomes a ripe fruit for picking by a pincer at the base of the bulge.
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Exactly, inviting the envelopment I mentioned above. Thing is, the Russians aren't dumb, and, let's face it, have a lot of institutional experience being suckered into kesselschlachten. For that reason they may well not bite.

Of course, refusing to advance allows the Ukrainians to either rest troops and build a big reserve for counterattacks should the Russians change their mind about pressing forward, or deploy that reserve onto another axis of advance.

I've read too that the Russians are redeploying Wagner forces south for rest and reconstitution, which implies that the Russians are aware of the danger posed to Melitopol by this static warfare in the Donbas, and taking steps to address it. They certainly seem to be thinking better after Ukraine's autumn offensive and the subsequent changes in Russian command.
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
Of course, refusing to advance allows the Ukrainians to either rest troops and build a big reserve for counterattacks should the Russians change their mind about pressing forward, or deploy that reserve onto another axis of advance.
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I think I can guess where the Ukrainian advance will go. The Russians need to be preparing for the Ukrainians thrust to Melitopol combined with the destruction of the Kerch bridge. The UAF will gladly give up temporary hold of the Bakhmut area to achieve this. Once completed the entirety of Russia's Kherson force is cut off and starving, and would need to fall back onto Crimea to await either evacuation or reinforcement via the sea.

Can't the Russians see how vulnerable they are in Kherson? Better to pull those troops back to Zaporizhzhia where overland supply via the Russian held Donetsk Oblast is feasible.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
I think I can guess where the Ukrainian advance will go. The Russians need to be preparing for the Ukrainians thrust to Melitopol combined with the destruction of the Kerch bridge. The UAF will gladly give up temporary hold of the Bahkmut area to achieve this. Once completed the entirety of Russia's Kherson force is cut off and starving, and would need to fall back onto Crimea to await either evacuation or reinforcement via the sea.

Can't the Russians see how vulnerable they are in Kherson? Better to pull those troops back to Zaporizhzhia where overland supply via the Russian held Donetsk Oblast is feasible.
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Agreed, I think it's the obvious next move as well. This Russian drive on Bakhmut might in this context be seen as a spoiling attack, designed to suck Ukrainians into the Donbas and away from the vulnerable southern Russian forces.

All the more reason for the Ukrainians to economize forces in the East and deliver a heavy blow south. It's a matter of riding the balance correctly, on both sides.
 
Honestly, I don't think Russia even has a well defined end game goal, or conditions of victory/success for this war now. So they take Bakhmut and the surrounded area - so what? The whole point of this was to stop Ukraine from aligning with the West and to bring its people, industry and resources back into Russia's sphere of influence. Nothing of what Russia has done since Feb 2022 nor plans to do in 2023 can achieve this. So, why is Russia still in Ukraine? Clearly because both Putin and the country don't have clue how to extricate themselves.
 
Admiral Beez said:
I think I can guess where the Ukrainian advance will go. The Russians need to be preparing for the Ukrainians thrust to Melitopol combined with the destruction of the Kerch bridge. The UAF will gladly give up temporary hold of the Bakhmut area to achieve this. Once completed the entirety of Russia's Kherson force is cut off and starving, and would need to fall back onto Crimea to await either evacuation or reinforcement via the sea.

Can't the Russians see how vulnerable they are in Kherson? Better to pull those troops back to Zaporizhzhia where overland supply via the Russian held Donetsk Oblast is feasible.
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How do Russians pull troops back to Zaporizhzhia?
 
Admiral Beez said:
Honestly, I don't think Russia even has a well defined end game goal, or conditions of victory/success for this war now.
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That's the Kremlin's real problem. Once the sudden-rush/Kyiv collapses decapitation scheme failed in March last year, they've been reduced to improvisation, and have no way to pull their nose out. Putin knows that losing this war means losing his power; it follows that his only end game is winning in Ukraine before losing in Russia.

Putin cannot afford a defeat, but Russia likely can't provide him victory, which at this point I think means not only removing Zelinskyy and his administration but also quelling the inevitable insurgency. Russia doesn't have the power to do that, even if they defeat the Ukrainians squarely on the battlefield. Putin's led their nation into a dead corner.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Is that within range of the Kerch bridge?
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From the article:

It would mean every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine, apart from most of the Crimean peninsula, would be in range of Ukrainian forces, likely forcing Moscow to redistribute ammunition and fuel storage sites.


Additionally, the GBU-39 warhead is 250 pounds, which, even if it could reach the bridge couldn't damage it. You'd need a lot to interdict traffic, if you can reach it at all.
 
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