"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (2 Viewers)

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

buffnut453 , your debate was fine. It was done in a civil manner debating the context of the post. However (and this goes to everyone, not just you. I know you did not start the laptop debate, only responded to it), what does the Hunter laptop have to do with the ongoing war? Or rather what value does it bring? Its an example of what is not needed.

 

[fubar57]

Happy to see the thread re-opened and all warm and squishy again. Everyone....♪ Kum bya mah Lord. Kum bya.........♫

 

[buffnut453]

For clarity. Can I ask for a rough breakdown as to what are J2 - J8 responsibilities I was FAA in the 70's and this is way above my pay grade

J1 - Personnel
J2 - Intelligence
J3 - Operations
J4 - Logistics
J5 - Plans
J6 - Communications
J7 - Training and Exercises
J8 - Future Capabilities

I also had interactions, and still do, with the J7 team so I'm not missing much in terms of HQ work across the staff.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Happy to see the thread re-opened and all warm and squishy again. Everyone....♪ Kum bya mah Lord. Kum bya.........♫

It was never intended to be closed permanently. Just a few hours to cool down.

 

[Marcel]

 

[wlewisiii]

J1 - Personnel
J2 - Intelligence
J3 - Operations
J4 - Logistics
J5 - Plans
J6 - Communications
J7 - Training and Exercises
J8 - Future Capabilities

I also had interactions, and still do, with the J7 team so I'm not missing much in terms of HQ work across the staff.

Joint staff is _WAY_ above the pay grade I was at! Battalion S2 shop is a much different place

 

[GrauGeist]

Meanwhile, in Ukraine...

*Cue Jaws theme*

 

[Snautzer01]

Meanwhile, in Ukraine...

*Cue Jaws theme*

View attachment 706559

I hear sir David Attenborough doing some lines.

Here... in the deep of the forrest, a barely known predator lurks. It doesn't hunt but wait till his prey is made harmless.
It gets it claws round the prey and takes it back to its lair.

 

[special ed]

That's an AWESOME video. Thanks for sharing. It's 100% relevant to what we're seeing today.

I think, in part, stupidity is driven by humankind's tribal ancestry. We automatically divide people into groups of "us" and "them", whether it's the sports teams we support, the political parties we endorse, the "otherness" of people with differently-coloured skins, or even those in different social strata. If we always assume "we" are right, then "them" must clearly be wrong. "Them" are the people we don't listen to. "Them" become the enemy.

There's also the tendency of people who are highly-capable in one discipline to believe they're equally capable in other disciplines. I think this is where we tip over from self-confidence to arrogance. A good general officer is humble enough and self-confident enough to know that they have hundreds of experts across all sorts of disciplines, and that integrating the efforts of those experts will deliver better recommendations upon which the general can make a decision. An arrogant general thinks they're the smartest person in the room, regardless of the topic under discussion, inevitably leading to staff not thinking for themselves (because the general does all the thinking anyway) and, ultimately, poor recommendations and decisions.

An example of tribal bias comes to mind from the time of Iraq and Saddam. A relative had a long relationship with a skilled Doctor originally from Iraq. The doctor visited our relatives home shortly after U.S. military involvement and was asked if he had heard from any of his family still in Iraq. He was definitely against Saddam, the reason he left many years earlier, and when I agreed with his views of Saddam as evil, I added Saddam even gassed his own people, the Kurds. At that, the doctor responded, "That's OK, those are bad people." I was astonished this very caring man of medicine would think that. Tribal bias.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

I think, in part, stupidity is driven by humankind's tribal ancestry. We automatically divide people into groups of "us" and "them", whether it's the sports teams we support, the political parties we endorse, the "otherness" of people with differently-coloured skins, or even those in different social strata. If we always assume "we" are right, then "them" must clearly be wrong. "Them" are the people we don't listen to. "Them" become the enemy.

100% fact, and I believe that some want it that way, because a divided people hold no power. All I will say on that.

 

[buffnut453]

Joint staff is _WAY_ above the pay grade I was at! Battalion S2 shop is a much different place

Trust me…your echelon would be a lot more fun!

 

[SplitRz]

Just some observations regarding the good colonel that was being cited as a credible source on the 'real situation in Ukraine. I can only bring my 20 years as a one time public relations press officer to bear on this rather than any special military expertise, but perhaps it pays to know how stories are shaped to get a nuanced understanding how a news agenda can get driven. Tends to make a fellow cynical. We've not been exposed to the supposed expertise / punditry of this chap here in Blighty. But a few things struck me.

1. He's retired from the military. Not recently, either. What does he do for a living now, and whats his motivation?
2. He's apparently been demonstrably serially and fundamentally wrong in several key predictions to date (despite his previous service), which -
3. ...seems to demonstrate that whilst he has an opinion, his proven track record of demonstrating a useful insight into whats actually happening...is, well... a bit flakey?
4. He's a retired colonel. A Colonel who retired 20 years ago and in 2004 went into the 'P' word which rhymes with 'hollow-bricks' [the name of which we shall not speak! ] Now no disrespect to the military hierarchical cadres, but first off, is that the kind of level of rank I should necessarily be giving much credence to in a military the size of yours? And though it appears he served as an advisor to the Secretary of Defence, it also seems that he only managed that for a MIGHTY three months (?). Is a cynic allowed to aske whether he was even awarded that short stint according to his ability, or was it prioritised by his 'other beliefs' pertaining to his new found non-military career ?
5. Its also worth asking the question why certain news channels have chosen to use him as a spokesperson. Whats their likely editorial slant? Those calling the shots will often add a dose of 'editorial confirmation bias' in their choice of pundits and commentators. But Isolationism isn't a creed peculiar to any one party, so I hope I'm on safe ground here.
6. Is he getting his moment in the media sun not because of any special knowledge of the facts, but because of his contrarian opinion? Back to confirmation bias. If a percentage of the people watching a news channel regard events in foreign places as irrelevant or that intervention would be damaging to their own lives an prosperity, might they likely wish to consume news stories which 'suggest' that sending $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ on an apparently lost cause is a waste of time.... whether it really is, or not? If viewers like what they hear, not because its proven correct, but because it reflects their own fears, is that a key reason he gets repeatedly invited back and his apparent authority becomes inflated?

I dunno. But PR has its foundations in the world of propaganda. And so far, by my observation, the Russians seem to have been absolute master of it. Those running the old soviet union were great fans of what were termed 'useful idiots' and they were available in the 1930s in profusion Has anything changed much?

Propaganda in this conflict is probably far more important than the actual material of war...

 

[blueskies]

Reinstating the draft is absolutely NOT the way to expand the West's military capability. You end up with a host of unskilled people, many of whom don't even want to be there. Managing a large force of relatively untrained people massively denudes operational capability because you have to spread your skilled, professional personnel across the force, with a net effect of lowering operational effectiveness. Yes, you get more people in the front line but they end up being just like the Russian army - cannon fodder to be thrown into the meat grinder.

Is Ukraine conscripting?

 

[ThomasP]

Hey drgondog, re ramping up production

From my post#9,892 ""All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."" on 2 September 2022:

". . . Contracts for additional production of many of the types of munitions being supplied have been let. Some of the manufacturers here in the US have been running expanded and/or additional shifts for several months."

Also, at the end of 2019 (before COVID) Minnesota had about 6,400 people directly employed in Defense/Aerospace. The number dropped a bit during COVID (I do not know the number) but is now hovering around 8,000 people. The increase in production capability has mainly centered on guided weapon components, but also includes bits and pieces and spares for a bunch of different systems. As I mentioned in another post we are also popping out generator sets like mad.


re troop deployments/preparing for war

Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine the US had ~70,000 military stationed in Europe at any point in time - either permanently or on rotation.
Since the invasion the US has increased its military forces to over 110,000 - either permanently or on rotation.

Incidentally, V Corps just began its 3rd round of deployments (ie some of the 1st round that were deployed for ~6 months from March 2022 are now being deployed to Europe for a 2nd tour) with some of the 2nd round returning stateside.


re Ukraine registering 16 year olds for conscription

For the past 25 years Ukraine law has required 16 year olds to register for the draft during the year of their 17th birthday - this has not changed.
For the past 25 years Ukraine law has not allowed mobilization of anyone under the age of 18 - this has not changed despite the current condition of martial law.
Males under the age of 18 may freely leave the country despite the current condition of martial law.

The only 2 significant changes that have occurred since the war began are:
1. Since martial law was declared no one between the age of 18 and 60 can leave the country without permission.
2. Anyone between the age of 18 and 60 may be mobilized if they are able.

I suspect that the story of 16 year olds being eligible for conscription originated from the occupied territories, where the Russian border guards have been ordered not to allow any male of age 16 years or older to leave the Donetsk/Luhansk/Donbas regions. Russia is pressuring the occupied territories to conscript 16 year olds.

 

[SplitRz]

Is Ukraine conscripting?

As outlined above by ThomasP, they have had national service for the last 25 years.

For the past 25 years Ukraine law has required 16 year olds to register for the draft during the year of their 17th birthday - this has not changed.
For the past 25 years Ukraine law has not allowed mobilization of anyone under the age of 18 - this has not changed despite the current condition of martial law.

And...?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Russia Lacks Resources to Launch Massive Anniversary Offensive, Military Intelligence tells Kyiv Post

Andriy Chernyak told Kyiv Post that an attack from the territory of Belarus and a second attempt to take the capital Kyiv was “unlikely in the coming weeks”.

www.kyivpost.com

ISW agrees.

 

[Greg Boeser]

Is Ukraine conscripting?

If your country was in an existential fight for survival, wouldn't you?

 

[ThomasP]

re conscription in Ukraine

Conscription was reinstated in 2015 with the eligible age group being 20-27. At the time ~60% of the UAF were contracted volunteers. Since then the majority of the regular armed forces have became all or nearly-all volunteer. Before the 2022 invasion nearly all conscripts were sent to the TDF (Territorial Defense Forces) to work up after initial training.

I do not know all the ins and outs of their system but apparently most of the contracted volunteers serve as conscripts (in terms of MOS, pay, and benefits) for their 1st tour, after which they can elect to re-up as contracted volunteers. Ukraine does not usually conscript men of the older age group unless there is a need for a specific skill set. They have not conscripted anyone under the age of 20 since 2014.

Currently, there does not appear to be a large number of new conscripts entering service with the UAF. Between the TDF and the regular military forces (including the National Guard, Reserves, and Border Guard) Ukraine has a manpower pool of well over 1,000,000 men. There have been enough volunteers (either new applicants or former military) that large scale conscription has not been necessary to date. Over 100,000 new personnel volunteered in March 2022 alone.

 

[GrauGeist]

Well, so much for Russia's new and invincible "Terminator" BMP-T...

Ukrainian forces blow up Russian “terrifying” Terminator tank

Ukrainian artillery reportedly blew up Russia's rare Terminator armored fighting vehicle. Shared on Instagram by the head of the Luhansk region Serhiy Haidai, the image shows what appears to be Russia's BMPT Terminator armored vehicle after a direct hit somewhere within Ukraine’s Donbas region...

defence-blog.com

 

[WARSPITER]

Reinstating the draft is absolutely NOT the way to expand the West's military capability.

Absolutely. It really has worked out well for Russia hasn't it ?

There's also the tendency of people who are highly-capable in one discipline to believe they're equally capable in other disciplines.

This is the danger of allowing intellectual qualifications override facts and experience. Look at professors and the like who
are trotted out to tell us all about something when they are covering subjects that have nothing to do with their field of
expertise. They must be right though coz they are a professor and you ain't.