"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (1 Viewer)

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GrauGeist said:
If anything, India may emerge as an arms dealer in the future.
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MiTasol said:
After a statement like that he needs to stay well clear of all windows - even those underground
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One of our members posted a link to something and of course I went down a rabbit hole reading other articles. One article had said that the crazier you are in Russia about the war, the more preposterous you are, the safer you are. Medvedev, a former president (threat to Putin), goes all in so as to be one of the boys (safe). The quiet ones most of us haven't heard of are the ones falling 20 stories from basement windows.
 
SaparotRob said:
One of our members posted a link to something and of course I went down a rabbit hole reading other articles. One article had said that the crazier you are in Russia about the war, the more preposterous you are, the safer you are. Medvedev, a former president (threat to Putin), goes all in so as to be one of the boys (safe). The quiet ones most of us haven't heard of are the ones falling 20 stories from basement windows.
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Maybe this?


View: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1624102046822543362?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1624102046822543362%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
 
Remember gentlemen, tea before the milk! Otherwise your chap is exposing himself as a nazi/commie spy!

My Grandmother, who spent her war brazing parts onto Lee Enfield slings told me that a spy was caught not far from where she worked in Croydon. He'd apparently been secretly parachuted into the countryside at night and made his way into town. Hungry, weary from his long walk, but full of confidence and awash with counterfeit pound notes, he made his way to the local cafe for the traditional English breakfast fry up. He also ordered a pot of tea. The other people in the cafe noticed the stranger in their midst, but at this point just gossiped about who they might be. It was only at the point he committed the treasonable obscenity of pouring the milk into his cup BEFORE he poured the tea like a common continental coffee-drinker that their attitude changed. A bobby way quickly summonsed to the scene, and the man was arrested at truncheon-point and taken away for questioning. He was quickly shown to be a spy and executed. So Gran said, anyway ;) (I took making her tea very seriously from that point)

Don't joke about tea, and choose your chaps carefully! <<thread hijack mode to OFF!>>
 
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Admiral Beez said:
Surely SOP when you've entered a minefield is not to drive directly alongside the first victim? And maybe stop or reverse to await mine clearing?


View: https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/1624916164915736577?s=61&t=qypgg3dTedYsoevl8pfW7w


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sqfqOxeERpI
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An unfortunate side effect from this is that civilians will continue to be victims of land mines for years to come after this war is over. It will take a very long time to clear up the country side.
 
DerAdlerIstGelandet said:
An unfortunate side effect from this is that civilians will continue to be victims of land mines for years to come after this war is over. It will take a very long time to clear up the country side.
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Agreed. Though I think the likely innovative, high tech cleanup of this war may benefit past conflict zones where mines have sat for decades. The Demining - Wikipedia technology is advancing, but it needs wealthy, first world backers. An EU-applicant and NATO favourite Ukraine will fit the bill.

www.sciencedaily.com

New technology for land mine detection

In Colombia, large areas are teeming with mines that are almost impossible to detect with traditional methods. Researchers are now developing a new mine clearance technology, based on ground penetrating radar. In the long run, they are aiming at creating a handheld device that will detect...
www.sciencedaily.com

Detecting Plastic Landmines

The Create the Future Design Contest was launched in 2002 by the publishers of NASA Tech Briefs magazine to help stimulate and reward engineering innovation. Th
contest.techbriefs.com contest.techbriefs.com

In addition to a decades-long neutered Russia another benefit of this war by the 2030s may be mine clearing in Latin America, SEA and sub-Saharan Africa.
 
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buffnut453 said:
Wow, drgondog drgondog , there's a hell of a lot to unpack in there...including a whole bunch of conspiracy stuff. I'll try to respond without crossing over the political threshold.
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Too much in your post to address
buffnut453 said:
Am I correct in understanding that, during the run-up to the 2020 election, the Republican Administration was responsible for banning efforts to comment on the Biden laptop prior to election? Now we have a Democrat Administration, but DOJ is pressing forward with an investigation into Hunter Biden. And somehow that's supposed to show that Carlson was right? Not sure I see the correlation there.
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The immediate 'rebuttal' was twofold - First, the New York Post was suspended for two weeks by Twitter and the individual post supporting the 'reality of the Biden laptop' were either deleted or restricted by the dreaded 'fact checker censorship' by Twtter, FB and TikTok. Second, the Democrat National Committee secured 50 signatures from former Intelligence officials stating that the story was Russian DisInformation. Carlson was the ONLY pundit that questioned the 'public narrative' by DNC and began the Fox probe into the story - and GOP Congressional leaders Grassley and Jordan immediately started pressing the FBI for details regarding the laptop - receiving nothing but crickets.

As to Republican Administration 'responsible for banning efforts to comment on the Biden laptop'? Well, Wray, FBI director wouldn't comment and Barr, DOJ was neutral, preferring not to comment during an election cycle. As both have demonstrated little love for Trump. Food for thought might lead you to question DOJ/Wray actions regarding Trump classified matreral vs 'friendly treatment' for Biden's four (to date) dscivery of SCIF level docs. At the end of the day, despite the leadership at Fox also demonstrating lost love for Trump, Carlson continued to dig while vocally call out the 50 person Intelligence letter and DNC "Nothing to see here, move along' mantra - as more and more supplementary details from the hard drive, incluing emails and travel details to and from China and Ukraine in which Father and son accompanied each other, the link of Board members (Hunter Biden - non Energy Expert) surfaced in which he was paid $1M/yr, his Chinese Investment front, hookers and blow, etc. Carlson also interviewed Hunter's business partners for 'corroboration' regarding payments to 'the Big Guy' as noted in email exchanges.

Couple that with Bidn's vocal rendition of his conversation with Ukraine leaders threatening to cut fuding if the investigation of his son andBurisma was not stopped immediately - which they did, and Ukraine got the funding

Now we find that Hunter was paying dad $50K/mo rental to live at 'dad's house' - the one with SCIF classified documents discovered next to 'dad's corvette in the garage. Now Hunter admits existance of laptop and wants it back.

Yes, Carlson was correct. Enough said about conspiriacies.

buffnut453 said:
As for the Nordstream bombing, NONE of those rumours have been proven correct. I note you have not responded to my comments on that topic, which present a host of problems with the theories being spouted by unnamed sources.
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None of those rumors have been disproven, and the latest reporting by Hersch certainly qualifies as public statement short of verifiable facts. That said, whether UK or US orchestrated - it was Not Russia or Germany.
buffnut453 said:
Having ploughed through Hersh's article on the topic, it's just riddled with errors (here's a link for those who have time to waste: How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline). For example, apparently, in one of the planning meetings, the USAF proposed dropping bombs with delayed-action fuses that would be triggered remotely via command signal. Really? How would such weapons be triggered remotely? Does the USAF even have regular bombs that can do that, let alone bombs that can find targets underwater. Or is this more secret-squirrel stuff that, again, is somehow operated without anybody noticing (except the unnamed source that Hersh is referencing)?
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No, USAF (AFAIK) has neither mission nor capability for subsea precision munitions. The dominating 'theory' is that it was a USN mission activated by the participation in the NATO exercises in pipeline locale. That said both Biden and Nuland publically threatened Nord Stream
buffnut453 said:
Then there's another classic quote "In the past few years of East-West crisis, the U.S. military has vastly expanded its presence in Norway." I can tell you with 100% certainty that is not a correct statement. The USMC has increased training in Norway but forces are rotational and of the order of hundreds, not thousands, and the permanent party cadre is tiny. Then, according to Hersh, there's a "new U.S. submarine base" which, in reality, was USS New Mexico arriving in Tromso as part of a new bilateral agreement....hardly a "new base."
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Have zero reason to debate you or Hersch on this. I don't have personal knowledge of the facts, but candidly don't have reason to suspect that you are routinely read into SCIF level intelligence?
buffnut453 said:
Then there's the timing problem. Apparently, the special team of planners flew to Norway in March 2022 to discuss the op with Norwegian counterparts. As noted in my earlier post, exercise planning starts 14 months in advance to ensure you have the right host nation, airspace and international water approvals, and to coordinate all participants. Unless the exercise was already placed smack dab ontop of Nordstream, then a late-breaking change in March 2022 at the earliest, would really stand out. You don't just change operating areas on a whim because it impacts the entire exercise planning and logistics. The alternate approach is that an exercise participant diverted from its exercise mission to conduct the operation...but, again, we're expected to believe that NOBODY saw this.

As to the aircraft dropping a sonobuoy to trigger the explosion, everyone that worked on or flew that aircraft must have been aware of something unusual happening. If you've ever worked on a multi-crew aircraft, you know it's virtually IMPOSSIBLE for the crew not to know what's going on. There's also the small challenge of the aircraft operating over Danish waters, which would require flight approval...but, again, no such flight plan or approval has come to light, nor have any of the countless aircraft spotters in Europe come up with a track showing such a profile around the time of the explosion.
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That would suppose that we 'notified' Denmark of our incursion, or that the incursion was not explained to Denmark's satisfaction, and last but not least that a flyover was suggested while a subsurface attack was executed.
buffnut453 said:
Then there's the final cherry on the cake. The place selected was in Denmark's territorial waters. Apparently Norway insisted that the Danish and Swedish governments be informed that a diving event would be happening in the area. Apparently, arrangements were made to stop the information progressing up the command chain. However, when the actual explosion went off, nobody in Denmark, Sweden or Norway said "Hey, you never told us you'd be blowing up the pipeline." As soon as the explosion happened, there would be an inquisition to ask what was known by the Danish military...unless that was all hushed-up too (but, if so, why the need to stop info moving up Danish command chains)?

Once again, we have a conspiracy theory that requires literally THOUSANDS of people involved, across multiple nations, to hide something that was eventually reported in the open press. Oh, and by the way, no shred of evidence came out of efforts to explore what happened to the pipeline.
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Same comments as above. As to flight crew not knowing what 'might be going on'? Rubbish if the mission was secret enough - would draw your attention to Bin Laden raid as a small example that reached public attention.
buffnut453 said:
Just because Carlson and Hersh SAY that the US blew up Nordstream does not make it a fact. There is ZERO corroborating evidence. Everything is circumstantial. The simple inaccuracies elsewhere in the article, that cover things I DO know quite a lot about, strongly suggest to me that the entire piece is a work of fiction.
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I agree that the facts are not in evidence. That said, Hersch as a Nobel winner has a reputation to be concerned about? The challenge for you and me is a.) I believe we are both fact based in judgments and conclusions, and b.) we are human and view uncertainty and speculative data with a dfferent lens (i.e. conspiracy). I would draw your attention to the roll out of Covid vaccines in which the Mantra was 'trust the science', when the reality was 'trust Me to Tell You what the science says'. Independent on were you are in that 'science vs conspiracy' debate - two things are true. Neither Moderna nor Pfizer had time to fully test side effects to be able to state concerns and warn of them. The second fact is that neither vaccine EVER immunized the recipient from Covid, despite public statements to the contrary. Last but not least, the mask is about as effective as a screen door on a submarine, given that eyes and skin are also a portal.
buffnut453 said:
I'm biting on this one, too. Let's see, I have 20 years' experience in the military, including field grade rank. I served at all echelons from tactical, up through 4-star service and Joint headquarters, and even in ministry-level positions. For the past 4 years I've supported multiple US Combatant Commands, including living and working for 3 years at one of them. My team spanned J2, J3, J5, J6, and J8 responsibilities, and did a fair bit of work on J4 equities, too. I've worked planning and operations processes, and have been directly involved in those for one of the headquarters. The work I've done has reached across the US Joint Force and impacted activities in multiple theatres to improve processes and drive materiel solutions to better support warfighters. I've briefed literally dozens of star-rank officers across two nations, and continue to engage at the O-6 level and above in my current work. Is that good enough for you?
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Yes. That said are you read in to the actual tactcal situation and evolution - in order to bring all desirable facts to eanble you to draw reasonable conclusions?
buffnut453 said:
As to the ability of conscripts, I would offer US experience in Vietnam as a classic example of where the draft simply didn't deliver the desired operational effects. Today's military is incredible complex, with technology that prior generations couldn't dream of. Being able to operate the new technologies while retaining the tactical nous to outthink the enemy is no small hill to climb...and conscripts won't get you there. Before you start going on again about how Ukraine has conscripts, I would observe that you were specifically asking why NATO hasn't introduced the draft. That's the question I'm responding to, not the wider implications of the draft for other nations.
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I agree, having lived that era - but, having said that, I am in the group that believes that the civilian soldier is necessary to balance trend toward Praetarian Guard mentality of 'professional soldier vs citizen soldier willing to serve - but choose another path.

The political realties are 1.) too expensive to draft in peacetime - training and competency and readiness being the gating factor, 2.) it is too 'hot' a topic for our current breed of politicians.

What we (US) have done to balance active duty preparedness is to fold in National Guard units into combat on a rotational basis, and expand our Special Ops footprint.

Back to the point I was trying to make - yes conscripts/draftees are not as desirable as professional fully staffed and trained armed force - but someimes as in WWII and Korea and Vienam the critical mass to achieve 'desired operational effects' just isn't a reality. I am not privy to the operational facts of east Ukraine operations but my belief isthat Russia conserved senior NCOs and junior officers better than Ukraine, and therby in better position to integrate conscripts.

You may disagree, that is OK.
buffnut453 said:
For the rest of the post, the details you're asking for reside in the classified domain and can't be shared, even if I had such details. Like everyone on this forum, I'm using unclassified, open-source material upon which to make value judgements. Then again, perhaps that's why you're asking for these details...because you know that your request can't be answered. As to the maps you want us to produce, are you suggesting that the maps being pushed out by news organizations are wrong? If so, please share your rationale for that, with evidence to the contrary. See? We can both play this game.
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Somewhat true. My primary point is that facts and fact based arguments in this thread are mostly non-existant. My belief is that most of the posts have a basis of messaging from our respective government 'truth' organizations - and dissent is strongly condemned. Neither Russia nor Ukraine nor US nor UK have a vested interest in uncontrollable dialogue from the governed.
buffnut453 said:
I will state, ONCE AGAIN, that nobody on this forum has suggested Ukraine is winning. The country is fighting for its very existence and has lasted far longer than most pundits, including Macgregor, forecast. It is still unclear what would constitute a Russian victory, short of occupying the entire nation formerly known as Ukraine. It is clear that all Ukraine must do is not lose. So far, they've done a pretty damn fine job of that.
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No disagreement generally, but I have seen more than a few posters that have not shared your expressed opinion - which is why I entered contrarian opinions.

As to clarity of 'win'. For US, it is to bleed the Russian Bear and emerge stronger in the Financial sector. The biggest subsurface war is Commodity vs Digital currencies. For Ukraine, it is to draw NATO into a direct confrontation with Russia - in which Ukraine is a participant with chance of surviving (hard to define what that means) with same governing infrastructure and independance from Russia. Crimea is not even a ghost of discussion. For Russia, it now means complete replacement of Ukraine government, totally disconnected from NATO, defacto control of the Ukraine resourse, and triumph with long term strategy of disconnecting from the West.

In OPINION, we (US) consciously threw Ukraine under the bus trying to goad Russia into action, then repeatedly backed over them by not supporting constructive approaches after the war began. Why? I don't know. Hope for an Afghanistan II? Hope that sanctions, given enough time, would work and crush Russia and prevent Asian Hedgemony with China and India? Belief that Putin would be taken out (and replaced by whom?). Redirect political pressure from raging inflation and jailbreak on our southern border?
 
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Can we ALL please take NON-UKRAINE WAR political discussion elsewhere? Like maybe to your PM? Or to a forum more suited for that kind of discussion?

This is not at one single person, but to all of us.

If we cannot stick to the topic at hand, the Admin/Mod team will close this thread and it will remain closed. We can also revert back to the 100% absolutely no politics.

Please everyone, lets not ruin this…
 
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