"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (1 Viewer)

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Yeah. No flight plan and no transponder ID. I monitored them so many times I got used to it.
 
I've not been keeping close track of this thread, but it appears Russia has been trying something new(ish).

There's been a general offensive push since early February along the entire eastern and northern fronts. Call it the start of a 2023 Winter Offensive. This has only increased in intensity over the last 5-6 days and Russian infantry losses have been reported at the highest rate of the war - with Ukraine's daily casualty claims surpassing even the initial offensive push in 2022.

What's interesting is that while Russia appears to be attacking across most of the front, it is only supporting particular offensive corridors with heavy armour, artillery and airstrikes. Informed military speculation is that improvements in Ukrainian artillery, particularly long range artillery, have really hampered Russian efforts at concentration and logistic support beyond railheads.

So, elsewhere Russia appears to be focusing on a general advance conducted with small scale units - roughly a reinforced company in strength - with light armour and light artillery (mostly mortars) in support. These lighter forces are much less logistics heavy than the typical BTG (which typically has 75-90 armoured vehicles) and can probe forwards in new areas to gain ground or find weak points in Ukrainian defenses. After a couple of days, they're rotated out for fresh units and the process starts again.

This is probably what's contributing to the proportionally heavier infantry losses. Elements of Russian forces are advancing into prepared positions without extensive artillery preparation or support.


The other trend worthy of comment is the cameo role played by the Russian air force. At the end of January, Russian fixed-wing aircraft basically halted sorties for nearly a week. Then around the 4th/5th, they started operating at high intensity - with 50+ airstrikes a day reported pver four or five days.

But, strike rates have dropped down to single digit numbers for the last few days. Rumours are that its a lack of spare parts. There's some evidence to support this - in November and December, the Russian air force lost more aircraft to accidents that it did to enemy action. Ramping up operations rates is only going to exacerbate this issue.
 
DerAdlerIstGelandet said:
Interesting, this is the only news source I can find. Claims they were in Polish airspace. That would be an act of aggression.

ukrainetoday.org

Dutch F-35s intercept Russian formation over Poland - Ukraine Today .org

THE HAGUE – The Dutch armed forces intercepted three Russian military aircraft in Poland. The planes flew in formation. Two Dutch F-35s have sought them out, identified them and escorted them, the Ministry of Defense reports. A Dutch F-35 fighter plane. Ⓒ ANP / ANTON KAPPERS According to the...
ukrainetoday.org ukrainetoday.org

Are Dutch news sources reporting it as well, Marcel Marcel ?
Click to expand...
The Dutch media was vague about that. The words were "intercepted Russian aircraft and escorted them from a distance". I believe Wojtek is right in that the did not actually enter polish airspace, but just flew there to provoke a response.

I think the media makes a fuss about it because it's the first time our new F35s did a Quick Reaction Alert.
 
Macandy said:
The Ukrainians have been supplied RAAMS artillery delivery mines in quantity.
There are an excellent method of stalling and breaking up an attack
Click to expand...
I like how the RAAMS has a timed self destruct function. This alleviates the issue with cluster munitions where post-conflict unexploded munitions put civilians at risk.

en.wikipedia.org

Remote Anti-Armor Mine System - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
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For those who might have thought from some of the reporting that Oleksii Reznikov was somehow banished or in hiding. He is being transferred sideways to Minister for Strategic Industries though still has a crucial role to play:


View: https://twitter.com/SecDef/status/1625398694035046400?cxt=HHwWgIC-hYTgyY4tAAAA


View: https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1625515636167245828?cxt=HHwWiIC86fr2_o4tAAAA


View: https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1625560112617201664?cxt=HHwWgIC9meqTk48tAAAA
 
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Marcel said:
The Dutch media was vague about that. The words were "intercepted Russian aircraft and escorted them from a distance". I believe Wojtek is right in that the did not actually enter polish airspace, but just flew there to provoke a response.

I think the media makes a fuss about it because it's the first time our new F35s did a Quick Reaction Alert.
Click to expand...
It would make sense for Russia to start trying to gauge the response times and pick up transmissions involved.
 
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