"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (9 Viewers)

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US intelligence reportedly assesses that China is seriously considering sending weapons to Russia amidst continued pressure from Western sanctions regimes on Russia's defense industrial base (DIB). CNN reported on February 24 that sources familiar with the intelligence stated that Chinese officials have not made a final decision on the provision of lethal aid but are discussing the price and scope of the supply of attack drones and ammunition with Russian officials.[10] Senior US officials reportedly assess that recent intelligence suggests that China is leaning toward providing the equipment to Russia, although based on a bilateral arms sales agreement and not as security assistance.[11] German outlet Der Spiegel reported on February 23 that Russian officials are engaged in negotiations with Chinese drone manufacturer Xi'an Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology for the mass production and delivery of 100 ZT-180 drones to Russian forces by April.[12] Der Spiegel reported that the ZT-180 drone can carry a 35-50kg warhead, suggesting that these drones may be a dual-use technology that Russian forces are seeking to acquire for reconnaissance purposes and not just as loitering munitions or high-precision weapons systems.[13] Russian and Chinese officials have reportedly developed plans for the shipment of the drones to Russia under falsified shipping documents labeling the equipment as replacement parts for civil aviation.[14]

[...]

The Kremlin escalated its information conditions-setting for a possible false-flag operation in Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) made a second claim on February 23 that Ukrainian forces are intensifying preparations to invade Transnistria following its first such claim earlier in the day.[22] The MoD emphasized that the claimed Ukrainian plan poses a significant threat to the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Transnistria. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed on February 24 that Russia will consider any action that threatens Transnistrian security as an attack against Russia.[23] The Kremlin may instead aim to destabilize Moldova, however. Some Russian milbloggers amplified the Kremlin's rhetoric by claiming that the situation along the Ukrainian-Transnistrian border is becoming increasingly tense.[24] Moldovan officials continued to deny Russian claims on February 24, characterizing the claims as "aggressive disinformation" or "a psychological operation."[25]

Institute for the Study of War

This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org
 
michaelmaltby said:
Similar pressure on Chamberlain and Churchill ... to make peace with Hitler.
Click to expand...
I am reminded of a comment Churchill made of Chamberlain and the 1938 peace in our time agreement, made with Hitler.

'Chamberlain had a choice between Dishonour and War, he chose Dishonour, and got War.'

Ukraine no doubt could have folded when it started and chosen dishonour, but chose war and are doing far better than anyone expected. They are stronger and more united than ever.

Those politicians who want to start peace negotiations are doing a Chamberlain, and there can be no doubt that further war would follow.
 
I find it *almost* humorous that Russia (and to a leaser extent, Belarus) claims that Ukraine is massing for an attack on the border of Transneistra and Belarus.

It's not like the Ukrainian Army has anything better to do than mill about, threatening it's neighbors with an attack.

What's next, Ukraine massing for an attack on Georgia?
 
President Biden in a new interview said he is ruling out providing F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine "for now," despite pleas from Ukrainian leadership for the planes in their war against Russia.

"He doesn't need F-16s now," Biden told ABC News's David Muir when asked about the requests from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"I am ruling it out for now," Biden said, adding that there was no rationale at the moment to provide the planes, according U.S. military leaders.
thehill.com

Biden rules out sending Ukraine F-16s ‘for now’

President Biden in a new interview said he is ruling out providing F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine “for now,” despite pleas from Ukrainian leadership for the planes in their war against Russia. “He do…
thehill.com thehill.com

God-damn, quit dithering. If we're gonna send them later, why not get started now?
 
SaparotRob said:
I was really hoping it was all maskirovka and on 24 February there would have been a couple squadrons of F-16s flying with the blue and yellow paint still wet.
Click to expand...

I know, I know. I'm just hoping that we've been training some Ukrainians for months already so that when the approval finally does come down -- and I do believe it will, evennnnnnnnnnnnntually -- they'll be mission-capable ASAP.
 
Last summer, the U.S. passed a bill that allocated funding for training Ukrainian Pilots and last November, the Ukraine military selected English speaking pilots for training.

So something's going on - it's just that we (and the Russians) don't know exactly what it is.

I'm sure that we (and the Russians) will find out soon enough.
 
Glider said:
I am reminded of a comment Churchill made of Chamberlain and the 1938 peace in our time agreement, made with Hitler.

'Chamberlain had a choice between Dishonour and War, he chose Dishonour, and got War.'

Ukraine no doubt could have folded when it started and chosen dishonour, but chose war and are doing far better than anyone expected. They are stronger and more united than ever.

Those politicians who want to start peace negotiations are doing a Chamberlain, and there can be no doubt that further war would follow.
Click to expand...
As I have stated elsewhere, while people might like to 'beat up' on Chamberlain, one has to also remember that neither Ramsay MacDonald or Stanley Baldwin before him were big advocates of re-arming/going to war either. They were also dealing with the economic situation and a hope to avoid another major war so soon after the 1914 - 1918 conflict. In the case of Baldwin, I believe the following comment from him to Chamberlain in 1938 sums up well some of the thinking: "If you can secure peace, you may be cursed by a lot of hotheads but my word you will be blessed in Europe and by future generations".

The situation now is not the same as then and to make similar comparisons is to oversimplify things.
 
Glider said:
A personal view I admit but my thinking is that China will want Russia to bleed, and pay a heavy price but not let Russia lose to the extent it comes apart. The more that happens the more influence China will have over Eastern Russia.
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I agree. To put it simply and crudely, I can almost see Xi saying to Putin post what ever outcome from the war: "You're my bitch now!"
 
GTX said:
breakingdefense.com

What Pentagon leaders say they have learned one year on from the battle in Ukraine - Breaking Defense

While not disclosing everything, senior military leaders from virtually every service and specialty have spoken about how they're incorporating lessons from the Ukraine war, from the danger of cell phones to the importance of a quick-moving industrial base.
breakingdefense.com breakingdefense.com
Click to expand...
You're just now seeing the danger of cell phones?!!!!! :eek:
 
GrauGeist said:
Last summer, the U.S. passed a bill that allocated funding for training Ukrainian Pilots and last November, the Ukraine military selected English speaking pilots for training.

So something's going on - it's just that we (and the Russians) don't know exactly what it is.

I'm sure that we (and the Russians) will find out soon enough.
Click to expand...

I've heard rumors of them training at Luke or Goodfellow AFBs, but because they're rumors I can't substantiate, I haven't passed them along until now, and don't put much confidence in them.
 
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