"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

[MiTasol]

A couple of things to consider re the 'slow' rate at which the US/NATO is providing complex systems like the tanks and aircraft.

To train the tank crew in the basics of daily maintenance, operations of the weapons system, safe/effective driving of the tank, loading the gun, laying and firing the gun, command of the tank, using terrain to hide, etc, is considered to require a minimum of 3 months. This is just the time to provide the required technical and hands-on knowledge. NOTE that this is normally done after basic training.

To turn the crew into a combat capable crew and integrated with other tank crews to form a combat capable unit, is considered to require a minimum of 9 months - working with one another and with other crews/units..

To train the rear area units in effective maintenance and repair of the M1 Abrams is considered to require a minimum of 6 months. The US can afford to treat the M1 like a one-shot use item - ie if it breaks down you leave it/destroy or disable it if necessary, otherwise recover it when convenient and send it to the rear for repair when convenient. Send in a new tank (including a new crew if necessary). The Ukraine cannot afford to do this - either in terms of numbers of tanks, or in terms of readily accessible/safe repair capability.

None of the above is a comment on the abilities of the Ukrainians - it is simply reality. The UAF will have to select/pull personnel from their cadre/regular/new recruit numbers and send them elsewhere for training. The personnel selected/pulled will (obviously) not be available for duties in Ukraine. How many veteran tankers can they afford to pull from the from line units? Maybe send personnel being rotated to R&R to training instead?

Note that the same considerations re personnel apply to fighter pilot training. It takes at least a year to train a new pilot to be semi-effective in an aircraft like the F-16. If they pull a large enough number of already skilled/veteran pilots to send for training and work-up of 1 or 2 F-16 squadrons (example only) - what will that leave them in terms of an effective Air Force if (when) the brown stuff hits the fan in Ukraine when they are absent?

The same considerations re maintenance also apply to any US/NATO aircraft.

And there are the logistics chain requirements.

Just saying.

Re paragraph 3.
The Ukrainians already have lots of practical experience in these areas and can definitely teach the "experts" a lot on how it all works in modern reality. In other words they can start training today and go into battle three months from now.

Given their willingness to learn and incentives to protect their homeland you can make that two months tops as they will do "homework" for far longer than any US or UK or EU trainee so that they can get home to their loved ones and to kill orcs.

And the same incentives apply to rear echelon units - the only thing that will be a problem is the availability of spare parts. Given their experience in scavenging parts from dead Russian tanks it would not take them long to scavenge Leopard or Challenger parts if they did not have them "in stock". Some of that scavenging could also be from other countries.

PS we need an acronym for ORCS

How about Obscenity* Russian Conscript Scatterbrains
* = choose your own

 

[RogerdeLluria]

From December but interesting anyway

Russia Struggles to Maintain Munition Stocks (Part One)

In the ninth month of Russia’s war against Ukraine, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the Russian army is being gradually overtaken by “shell hunger.” This should be expected based on earlier analyses made in August 2022 (see EDM, August 16, 18) and has been partly confirmed by Estonian...

jamestown.org

Russia Struggles to Maintain Munition Stocks (Part Two)

*Click here for Part One. While the Kremlin stubbornly contends that the Russian defense industry will have no issues in replenishing those munitions that have been heavily depleted in Ukraine, closer analysis of the production rates within the industry reveal otherwise. First and foremost...

jamestown.org

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

May not be a bad idea to fall back to an iron line - besides, recent Russian activity has created a slight crescent line around Bahkmut that has the potential of an encirclement for Ukrainian elements.

The circumstances are pretty similar to August in a different part of the front: Ukrainians lose a grinding battle and escape encirclement, only to mount a riposte that rolls up the front around Kharkiv. And they are making noises about an upcoming offensive ...

ETA: lol, It's not working, dude.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian officials accused Ukrainian saboteurs of crossing into western Russia and firing on civilians in local villages Thursday. Ukraine denied the claim and warned that Moscow could use it to justify stepping up its own attacks in the ongoing war.

The exact circumstances of the incident reported in the Bryansk region were unclear, including what the strategic purpose of such an attack might be.

If confirmed, it would be another indication following drone attacks earlier this week that Kyiv could be stepping up pressure against Moscow by exposing Russian defensive weaknesses, embarrassing the Kremlin and sowing unease among Russian civilians.

Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Ukrainian "terrorists" for an incursion, claiming that they deliberately targeted civilians, including children in "yet another terror attack, another crime."

"They infiltrated the area near the border and opened fire on civilians," Putin said during a video call. "They saw a civilian vehicle with civilians, with children in it and they fired on them."

Russia claims Ukraine crossborder sabotage raid; Kyiv denies

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian officials accused Ukrainian saboteurs of crossing into western Russia and firing on civilians in local villages Thursday. Ukraine denied the claim and warned that Moscow could use it to justify stepping up its own attacks in the ongoing war .

apnews.com

Like Putin gives a shit about civilians of any nationality <eyeroll>

 

[Greg Boeser]

Probably Russian deserters.

 

[buffnut453]

Probably Russian deserters.

Agree...and given Moscow's inability to bring forward any substantive evidence for any of their claims, it could easily be a "blame Ukraine to hide the truth" situation.

 

[glennasher]

Sounds like Russia is using Hitler's pretense for attacking Poland as another excuse to run hogwild in Ukraine. Nothing new under the sun, of course.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Looks like Russians took the "ammo dump" thing a bit too literal


View: https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1630767340664020993

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Some info on the repair progress of Kerch bridge

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Russia appears to have recently removed a span of the Kerch railway bridge to Crimea, presumably to carry out repairs following the (likely Ukrainian) bomb attack on the bridge last October. Here's ...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[RogerdeLluria]

View: https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1631325731316793345

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Probably Russian deserters.

I stand corrected.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

And regarding the ammo resupply issues discussed earlier in this thread:


BRUSSELS (AP) — European Union officials and countries from the 27-nation bloc are discussing plans to dedicate an extra billion euros as well as setting up a joint procurement scheme to speed up the delivery of howitzer artillery rounds that Ukraine says are crucial to countering Russian forces.

With Ukraine facing shortages of ammunition to fight Russia, the idea of setting up a plan of action similar to the one devised during the coronavirus pandemic to buy vaccines was first brought to the table last month by Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas.

According to an EU official with direct knowledge of the project who briefed reporters Thursday, the priority now is to guarantee the swift delivery to Ukrainian armed forces of 155mm artillery rounds. The official was not authorized to speak publicly because the plan is still being finalized.

The EU has been helping Ukraine through its European Peace Facility — a fund being used to reimburse member countries that provide weapons, ammunition and military support to Ukraine.


Under the latest proposal, member countries providing ammunition immediately would be guaranteed to be repaid quickly and at high rates of reimbursement.

To fund the project, member states would need to use an additional billion euros after they already agreed in December to top up the European Peace Facility by a further 2 billion euros, with a possibility of an additional 3.5 billion.

EU to speed up deliveries of howitzer shells for Ukraine

BRUSSELS (AP) — European Union officials and countries from the 27-nation bloc are discussing plans to dedicate an extra billion euros as well as setting up a joint procurement scheme to speed up the delivery of howitzer artillery rounds that Ukraine says are crucial to countering Russian forces.

apnews.com

That discussion upthread starts around here.

 

[SaparotRob]

Nice!

 

[Frog]

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) —'' ... Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Ukrainian "terrorists" for an incursion, claiming that they deliberately targeted civilians, including children in "yet another terror attack, another crime."

"They infiltrated the area near the border and opened fire on civilians..."

Exactly like in the Russian manual.

 

[GrauGeist]

Interesting - Vlad just described what's been happening in Ukraine for the past twelve months...

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Interesting - Vlad just described what's been happening in Ukraine for the past twelve months...

Exactly like in the Russian manual.

The hypocrisy they show in their complaints is stunning. Civilian casualties in war are always deplorable, but the Z force has for the last year made a sadistic habit of putting civilians not only in harm's way, but into mass graves.

For Putin to now complain about civilian deaths shows how out of touch he is with the information space, where we all know what his troops, under orders, have done. There's more than a touch of hubris to his hypocrisy, insofar as he seems to think no one can see through his bullshit.

 

[buffnut453]

The hypocrisy they show in their complaints is stunning. Civilian casualties in war are always deplorable, but the Z force has for the last year made a sadistic habit of putting civilians not only in harm's way, but into mass graves.

For Putin to now complain about civilian deaths shows how out of touch he is with the information space, where we all know what his troops, under orders, have done. There's more than a touch of hubris to his hypocrisy, insofar as he seems to think no one can see through his bullshit.

But Putin doesn't care if we see through his bullshit. He only cares that the Russian people swallow the bullshit he's peddling...which is why he's shut down any news media that doesn't peddle his crap. It's Game Over for him if the Russian people en masse stop believing him.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

But Putin doesn't care if we see through his bullshit. He only cares that the Russian people swallow the bullshit he's peddling...which is why he's shut down any news media that doesn't peddle his crap. It's Game Over for him if the Russian people en masse stop believing him.

His problem is that information is like water, it will find leaks faster than you can plug them.

 

[Admiral Beez]

So, I wonder where they will really attack?

Indeed. "the Ukrainian army is fully intent on kicking off a major offensive by May, if not earlier."

My guess, as soon as they can muster forty Leopard 2s at the head of two hundred T-64/72/80/90 MBTs and a sizable mix of Marders, Bradleys and BMPs, equip the MiGs and Sukhois with JDAMs, and the MLRS with GLSDBs the AFU will rush on Melitopol. This will be in early April when the grounds have dried and the above systems are in place.

 

[Zipper730]

Sounds like Russia is using Hitler's pretense for attacking Poland as another excuse to run hogwild in Ukraine. Nothing new under the sun, of course.

Correct, it's a classic false-flag.

His problem is that information is like water, it will find leaks faster than you can plug them.

That's only beneficial, by in large, to people outside of Russia. In Russia, the ability to determine which way's up is probably very difficult owing to propaganda techniques used.

Some have called it the "Russian Firehood of Falsehoods", though it's not actually specific to Russia: There's a concept known as a wilderness of mirrors whereby the line between truth and fiction are so heavily blurred; while a fictional work: Brave New World involved using a deluge of information rather than a sparsity of it.

The concept of revolves around the following

1. High-volume and multichannel
2. Rapid, continuous, and repetitive
3. Lacks a commitment to objective reality and consistency.

This deluge of messages over seemingly all avenues that varies from true, to half truth, to shameless nonsense, and almost everything in between, combined with the messages conflicting serve to overwhelm and undermine the ability to form an accurate mental picture of reality. When it also involves multiple narratives it only exacerbates this (as well as divides people into several different camps since people tend to gravitate more towards one set of narratives than another). The idea is ultimately the idea of information warfare, which doesn't assume wartime or peacetime (like at all), but a continuous state of war with ebbs and flows where the war is more intense in some cases, calmer in other times, and somewhere in between in other cases.

This concept is of course short-circuits the concept of having the meaning of peacetime and wartime since the latter is a situation that occurs when the first cannot successfully be achieved, and it is completely antithetical to a free and open society since in wartime, any freedom can be curtailed in the exigencies of fighting the war, and the war by its nature is continuous and never ending.