Jabberwocky
Staff Sergeant
Some Ukrainian/pro-Ukrainian sources are now suggesting that the battle for Bakhmut has effectively become a stalemate and will continue as such for the next few months. Any fighting for the city itself is going to be increasingly slow, as it moves into the most dense urban sections. And, unless there is a total collapse of the defenses, any Russian forces engaged in the fighting aren't going to be in a fit state to advance rapidly if/when the city is captured.
There are some suggestions that Russian efforts are now being pulled to other - more successful - advances. In particular, support seem to be going towards the advance Northwest of Bakhmut and North/northwest of Svatove, as well as the advance Southwest of Avdiivka. Some of this is being driven by reconstituted Russian regular army units, including several formations that were pulled out of the Kherson area and are now being drip-fed to commands around Zaporizhya and southern Donestk. Russia has also pulled units out of Georgia and Azerbaijan for deployment in Ukraine.
OPSINT sources have around 20 Russian forces of battalion or larger size undergoing rest/refit, while another 45-50 are known to be active (plus Wagner group mercenaries and other smaller PMCs).
What's interesting to me is that Ukrainian front line appears to be substantially understrength when compared to late 2022. Committed forces are estimated at somewhere around 40-60 brigade level formations, plus another seven to ten in reserve. That's compared to 75+ brigades that were identified on the frontlines during the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives and around 80-100 brigades that are conceivably combat capable
So, Ukraine isn't committing its full strength at the moment and may be resting/refitting/training 30 or more brigade size forces. That could be in the region of 90,000 to 150,000 troops.
What's also interesting Ukraine doesn't seem to be committing the new brigades it has been forming into combat. At least three mechanised and one heavy (tank) brigade were formed over late 2022 and early 2023, all armed with mostly Western equipment. While these aren't fully up to strength (waiting on AFVs mostly), I suspect that any large scale commitment of these new units will also mark a new phase in the war.
There are some suggestions that Russian efforts are now being pulled to other - more successful - advances. In particular, support seem to be going towards the advance Northwest of Bakhmut and North/northwest of Svatove, as well as the advance Southwest of Avdiivka. Some of this is being driven by reconstituted Russian regular army units, including several formations that were pulled out of the Kherson area and are now being drip-fed to commands around Zaporizhya and southern Donestk. Russia has also pulled units out of Georgia and Azerbaijan for deployment in Ukraine.
OPSINT sources have around 20 Russian forces of battalion or larger size undergoing rest/refit, while another 45-50 are known to be active (plus Wagner group mercenaries and other smaller PMCs).
What's interesting to me is that Ukrainian front line appears to be substantially understrength when compared to late 2022. Committed forces are estimated at somewhere around 40-60 brigade level formations, plus another seven to ten in reserve. That's compared to 75+ brigades that were identified on the frontlines during the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives and around 80-100 brigades that are conceivably combat capable
So, Ukraine isn't committing its full strength at the moment and may be resting/refitting/training 30 or more brigade size forces. That could be in the region of 90,000 to 150,000 troops.
What's also interesting Ukraine doesn't seem to be committing the new brigades it has been forming into combat. At least three mechanised and one heavy (tank) brigade were formed over late 2022 and early 2023, all armed with mostly Western equipment. While these aren't fully up to strength (waiting on AFVs mostly), I suspect that any large scale commitment of these new units will also mark a new phase in the war.
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