"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (11 Viewers)

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Escuadrilla Azul said:
Not been a fighter pilot, not even a pilot, don't know if the sliding approach to dump fuel on the drones is a sound one given the steady flight of the UAV.

X XBe02Drvr BiffF15 BiffF15 thoughts?

Even, dumping fuel on the Predator makes sense to bring it down or damage sensors?
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The Russian pilot f-cked up and caused a mid air. Even if a UCAV could make sudden maneuvers, if your flying so close as not to be able to get out of the way, then it's your fault for being too close (the standard separation is 500 feet).

Dumping fuel was probably meant to flame out the engine or cause a fire.

I wonder if Russia wants us in the fight?

Cheers,
Biff

PS: I have done dissimilar training against the Viper guy mentioned above.
 
A post I made at another forum regarding the upcoming Ukrainian offensive. As noted, it's pretty speculative, and also as noted, comments and critiques are welcomed. What do y'all think?


The other thing is this: urban battles have a way of sucking in resources, be those resources men, ammo, or food. Because of the ongoing struggle for Bakhmut, I'd be willing to bet a good proportion of Russian logistic ability -- shaky even before it got shredded last year -- is tied up supplying the forces (ISW's estimate today, most of three divisions) assaulting the city. Prigozhin has already been complaining loudly for weeks now about ammo shortages.

Three conclusions, and perhaps others, I'm all ears, could possibly be drawn from that group of facts: 1) the Russians are truly running short on ammo and other supplies; 2) the Russian logistics train is overworked, meaning that they probably want to or already are bringing more transport assets to bear for the fighting units; and 3) that the Russians may (stress may) be pulling troops from the flanks in order to keep up the pressure on the city.

In that context, a Ukrainian drive to the south could (again, stressing could) face: 1) a southern front more weakly manned and more poorly supplied; 2) Russian forces stripped of logistical transport in order to support the eastern battle; and/or 3) Russian forces short of ammo that has been sent to Bakhmut.

If the above speculation -- and that's all it is, speculation -- holds true in one or more of the possibilities, this may be the Ukrainians preparing the conditions for an offensive a la Operation Uranus that the Russians pulled on the Germans at Stalingrad: suck the Russians into Bakhmut, force them to commit reserves into the cauldron, running low on supplies and experiencing transport difficulties, and then hit them on the flanks for envelopment.

Or the Ukrainians could simply, as noted above, hit the coast and from there decide to wheel north to roll up the eastern front, or wheel south and liberate Crimea. That has the advantage of simplicity.

Again, this is all speculation on my part, putting together pieces I've read both in current news and readings of history. But I'd be willing to bet that this has been at the least considered by the Ukrainian general staff, even if they've since decided on different operational plans.

Comments and critique welcome from all.
 
manta22 said:
It's time to arm those drones.
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MQ-9-AIM-9X.jpg
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
I'd rather my tax $ be spent building weapons for others than sending GIs to fight and die. It's a hard thing to say, because I know those sonsabitches are going through some shit. But that's my own opinion for what it's worth.
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Greg Boeser said:
He don't pay for nothin'. Just puts stuff on my tab.
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SaparotRob said:
Best return on taxes. We are transferring old stock that would otherwise have to be recycled. The weapons are being used as intended without a single American casualty. We are sending equipment to NATO members so that they, in turn, can send equipment to Ukraine (and the rest of NATO is upping their game). It's the greatest advertising coup in history. So, who has the cool stuff now? Except for loser regimes, everyone is ditching Russian gear. Production is ramping up before China moved on Taiwan. It's like the American military arms industry is having a 10% off sale! JOBS! It's like what started bringing the U.S. out of the depression of the Thirties!
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did you guys watch this video from the other day - well worth it if you haven't:


View: https://youtu.be/7y5SrIX1MJs
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
A post I made at another forum regarding the upcoming Ukrainian offensive. As noted, it's pretty speculative, and also as noted, comments and critiques are welcomed. What do y'all think?


The other thing is this: urban battles have a way of sucking in resources, be those resources men, ammo, or food. Because of the ongoing struggle for Bakhmut, I'd be willing to bet a good proportion of Russian logistic ability -- shaky even before it got shredded last year -- is tied up supplying the forces (ISW's estimate today, most of three divisions) assaulting the city. Prigozhin has already been complaining loudly for weeks now about ammo shortages.

Three conclusions, and perhaps others, I'm all ears, could possibly be drawn from that group of facts: 1) the Russians are truly running short on ammo and other supplies; 2) the Russian logistics train is overworked, meaning that they probably want to or already are bringing more transport assets to bear for the fighting units; and 3) that the Russians may (stress may) be pulling troops from the flanks in order to keep up the pressure on the city.

In that context, a Ukrainian drive to the south could (again, stressing could) face: 1) a southern front more weakly manned and more poorly supplied; 2) Russian forces stripped of logistical transport in order to support the eastern battle; and/or 3) Russian forces short of ammo that has been sent to Bakhmut.

If the above speculation -- and that's all it is, speculation -- holds true in one or more of the possibilities, this may be the Ukrainians preparing the conditions for an offensive a la Operation Uranus that the Russians pulled on the Germans at Stalingrad: suck the Russians into Bakhmut, force them to commit reserves into the cauldron, running low on supplies and experiencing transport difficulties, and then hit them on the flanks for envelopment.

Or the Ukrainians could simply, as noted above, hit the coast and from there decide to wheel north to roll up the eastern front, or wheel south and liberate Crimea. That has the advantage of simplicity.

Again, this is all speculation on my part, putting together pieces I've read both in current news and readings of history. But I'd be willing to bet that this has been at the least considered by the Ukrainian general staff, even if they've since decided on different operational plans.

Comments and critique welcome from all.
Click to expand...
In my (admittedly totally unqualified) opinion, I think this is a pretty concise piece of analysis - those certainly seem like the 2 most likely options facing the Ukrainian General Staff. The 'hold em by the nose and kick 'em in the ass' approach at Bakhmut could potentially reduce Wagner to impotence (perversely, The Russian Army might be quite OK with this....) and deliver a solid victory (though its PR value might exceed its strategic impact). A drive to the coast would probably be simpler, and would give the Ukr forces options once they got there - i.e. go north? go south?
 
Warspite63 said:
A drive to the coast would probably be simpler, and would give the Ukr forces options once they got there - i.e. go north? go south?
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Thanks for the kind words. I'd wheel south and retake Crimea if the decision were mine to make. That's news you cannot hide even in Putin's Russia, and would bespeak the defeat to the general populace, undermining his rule. That move does have its own difficulties -- you'd have to build a northeastern shoulder against the inevitable counterattack from the north or even Rostov. But I think it would be a knockout blow. Putin can't sell this war as a victory when he's been ejected from an illegal annexation he made eight years ago.

It would also put paid to the international opinion of "surrender Crimea to the Russians and make peace at that point." If the Ukrainians could pull this off, it knocks the knees out from under the appeasement/surrender apologists. It would have political as well as military ramifications, both at home and abroad.
 
Glider said:
I would like to say that I am surprised, but if I am honest, I'm not. France holding up the production and delivery of shells to Ukraine
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Has any eastern European nation found success through relying on 20th or 21st century France? Certainly not Russia (1914), Poland (1939) or Ukraine (2023).

Foreign alliances of France - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
Warspite63 said:
In my (admittedly totally unqualified) opinion, I think this is a pretty concise piece of analysis - those certainly seem like the 2 most likely options facing the Ukrainian General Staff. The 'hold em by the nose and kick 'em in the ass' approach at Bakhmut could potentially reduce Wagner to impotence (perversely, The Russian Army might be quite OK with this....) and deliver a solid victory (though its PR value might exceed its strategic impact). A drive to the coast would probably be simpler, and would give the Ukr forces options once they got there - i.e. go north? go south?
Click to expand...
"- i.e. go north? go south?" The same dilemma facing the Japanese before the Doolittle raid. Then it was "Go South".:)
 
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