"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (1 Viewer)

[swampyankee]

Rubbish. I know this will trigger our resident contrarians, but Russia's economy is growing, its total Ukraine losses are less than a bad month of WW2, and Russia continues to hold and gain territory.

Why Is Russia’s Economy Still Growing?

Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine have had limited impact.

foreignpolicy.com

Russia can keep bleeding tanks and other equipment like it has been in Ukraine for at least another 2 to 3 more years, war analysts say

Russia's military is losing tanks, armored vehicles, and more, but it can probably sustain these losses for years, a new analysis says.

www.businessinsider.com

Until the Russian people, elites or military rise up and throw out Putin in a Ceaușescu-like rebellion, the man is not done. And then the worry is what replaces Putin. Czar Nicolas II and the Romanov dynasty was terrible for Russia and its people, but were Lenin and Stalin any better? Perhaps the praetorians or revolutionary committee that replaces Putin decides to double down on Ukraine.

In 1917? It certainly looked like Lenin and the Bolsheviks would be better than the czar; it may have been difficult to have been much worse.The people's answer may have been different in 1925 or 1930, but maybe not.

While it may be fun to speculate about a popular rising or a palace coup displacing Putin, neither is particularly likely to succeed: from everything I've read, Putin still has the support of the security services (military, police, etc). He's dealing with dissidents with the same gentle methods[1] used by monarchs and autocrats throughout history, while being reasonably careful to avoid seriously inconveniencing most of the populace.



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[1] You know, the usual: exile, political show trials, judicial murder, torture, bills of attainder, secret courts, ....

 

[MiTasol]

If I remember how parliamentary democracies work, the prime minister is chosen by the majority party. If there's no majority, the PM has to cobble together a majority with the assistance of other parties. For example, this is the position that Netanyahu is in: while his party is the largest party in the Knesset, it's not the majority party, so he needs to get support from minor parties[1]. IIRC, there wouldn't be a government shutdown with a parliamentary system: if the PM can't get something like the budget passed, parliament is dissolved and there's an election called.

One advantage of the parliamentary system that I see is that the PM is not going to be some parvenu who "hates politics."


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[1] I'm actually not sure if Netanyahu's party is the largest in the Knesset, but I think it probably is. The main thing I know about Israeli politics is that there are numerous political parties and that Israel has a vocal, diverse, and frequently very critical press.

That is a pretty good summary. In some cases there is a minority government where a group of middle ground politicians sit on what are called, in Australia, the cross benches.

The advantage of minority governments is that they have to convince a number of crossbenchers that each piece of legislation is good for the country, or otherwise "entice" them.

One common disadvantage of minority governments is there are often cross benchess that can easily be "bought" with promises of things the government will do in the future if they just pass this, and this,........bit of crap legislation.

 

[GrauGeist]

Considering that there are quite a few Russian militias that are now actively supporting Ukrainian forces, I'd say that there are cracks opening in Moscow's facade.

 

[SaparotRob]

Rubbish. I know this will trigger our resident contrarians, but Russia's economy is growing, its total Ukraine losses are less than a bad month of WW2, and Russia continues to hold and gain territory.

Why Is Russia’s Economy Still Growing?

Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine have had limited impact.

foreignpolicy.com

I am aware of this narrative and it's hogwash. Russian economic growth is through switching to a war economy. Reduction in civilian goods and services. Directing resources away from infrastructure. Russian industry is basically manufacturing one-time use items that offer no long term economic gain or use. Wages are "high" in the defense industries due to severe civilian personnel shortages. Other industries workforces are being used to feed the armaments industry. Migrant laborers can't just go into these factories. Gazprom is operating at unsustainable losses and new tax burdens and this applicable to other Russian petro companies. The Russian stock market and banking sector has been shuttered. The rouble is rubble and is untradeable internationally. Even China doesn't want roubles. They can no longer export their "superior" weapons because ..they are rubbish.
Bore yourself with economic reports and news. Not as much fun as watching a state of the art S-400 system being taken out by a cheap FPV drone but there is more important information.

I didn't read this linked article.

 

[WARSPITER]

The rouble is rubble

Nice. You beat me to it. That article is indeed using percentage figures to get a headline.

Economic growth is often linked to GDP which can be misleading.

Russia will increase their GDP this year by increasing military spending. The domestic production spending
goes up but isn't actually economic growth as military spending for products that go straight to a war zone
does not increase the countries wealth.

Equipment can be sold to other countries to offset expenditure but Russia has mostly lost the capacity to export.
It is also gear that mostly isn't reusable afterwards (very hard to repurpose a used artillery shell even though it will
probably have very low mileage and only one owner).

Internally there is plenty of employment but that is becoming difficult for Russia due to inflation and the loss
of workforce to the military or to other countries as skilled workers leave to escape the draft.

The Russian economy is getting very close to recession territory as wages cannot keep pace due to less
money coming in to the country for business and government to use. Many recessions are brought on by
what happens in other parts of the world (GFC etc). Russia is heading that way internally which gives
very little room to move.

It's the old boiling the frog trick with the water already way passed lukewarm.

 

[SaparotRob]

View: https://youtu.be/4BNlXwR05WM

 

[SaparotRob]

...and these guys don't tell jokes.


View: https://youtu.be/98XkW7AKaZ4

 

[SaparotRob]

View: https://youtu.be/iYFiXkKCgnY

 

[SaparotRob]

View: https://youtu.be/H8RLdmMqRhQ?t=1

There's enough stats in these two vids to bore the crap out of most of us.

 

[Glider]

The comments about infrastructure are very valid. Russia is almost literally falling apart and the money needed to fix them is being spent on the war. This money may be increasing the GDP by producing weapons but it obviously isn't being spent on anything productive in economic terms. Its a bit like turning the water tap on and letting the water fall on barren ground instead of being used for productive uses such as irrigation or factories that produce things people want to buy.

Russia's test will I believe be people. Putin continues to do anything he can to avoid calling up people from the major cities. With the losses being incurred sooner or later he will have to do this and then people may start getting angry about the leadership.

 

[SaparotRob]

View: https://youtu.be/9D77dD1xli8

Hey, I think we all needed a break.

 

[WARSPITER]

Russia's test will I believe be people. Putin continues to do anything he can to avoid calling up people from the major cities. With the losses being incurred sooner or later he will have to do this and then people may start getting angry about the leadership.

Good points. Look back to Russia's exit from the World War One.

 

[Escuadrilla Azul]

Putin continues to do anything he can to avoid calling up people from the major cities. With the losses being incurred sooner or later he will have to do this and then people may start getting angry about the leadership.

That's the reason Rusia is recruiting people from all over the world to fight, as indians, srilankans, africans, cubans.

Which is a kind of irony for a war special military operation for the soul of Rusia itself.

 

[GrauGeist]

Hitler tried something similar, creating the illusion that life inside Germany was immune from the war.
It worked or a short while.

He also planned on being in Moscow within four months and we all know how that worked out, too...

 

[Snowman]

Yeah, the Russian economy is growing at an unprecedented rate. Breaking news from the Second Army in the World:


View: https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1802336831712673968

What's next - horses or donkeys?

 

[SaparotRob]

Well, they already have an ass.

 

[WARSPITER]

If they need more they can call the Kremlin production centre and "burro" some more......

 

[GTX]

The armchair experts have been saying Putin is done for almost two years already but I see no evidence that any before were correct so I will treat this prediction as same old bull droppings.

Did you watch the video or just read the title?

 

[GTX]

Relevant to the discussion of Russia's economy. As usual, don't focus on the title - listen to what is said.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWzYvVmqpJI

 

[GTX]

Janet Yellen says G7 loan to Ukraine is definitely legal