"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (22 Viewers)

[Denniss]

At least one A-50 aircraft (russian Awacs) is claimed to be destroyed at its base with multiple others claimed damaged during the drone attack. Well probably know more in the coming days once better sat images get out.

 

[GTX]

Russia sets out punitive terms at peace talks with Ukraine

 

[GTX]

Text of Ukraine's Istanbul proposals

 

[Admiral Beez]

Russia sets out punitive terms at peace talks with Ukraine

There's no chance Ukraine ever gets Crimea, and I honestly don't see how Ukraine can negotiate the return of the parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson that Russia holds. What cards or negotiating position does Ukraine hold? Putin doesn't care if his strategic bombers are wrecked as long as Russian boots hold Ukrainian soil.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

There's no chance Ukraine ever gets Crimea, and I honestly don't see how Ukraine can negotiate the return of the parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson that Russia holds. What cards or negotiating position does Ukraine hold? Putin doesn't care if his strategic bombers are wrecked as long as Russian boots hold Ukrainian soil.

The problem with "punitive terms" is that the other side will sometimes tell you to GFY. The other problem is that "boots on the ground" will translate to coffins into the ground, as well. And how long can Putin's regime manage that balance of interior control vs a bloody stalemate outside?

The motivations on either side are different and while our Western press has articles regarding Ukrainian softening, at the same time there are factors inside Russia not apparent to us but apparent to the Russian people.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The problem with "punitive terms" is that the other side will sometimes tell you to GFY. The other problem is that "boots on the ground" will translate to coffins into the ground, as well. And how long can Putin's regime manage that balance of interior control vs a bloody stalemate outside?

I fear at this rate, a long while. Total Russian casualties since Feb 2022 are equal to a single bad month in WW2.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I fear at this rate, a long while. Total Russian casualties since Feb 2022 are equal to a single bad month in WW2.

Given that Ukraine is not an existential threat, while Nazi Germany was, I think there's a bit of wiggle room. Remember that domestic discontent over losses in Afghanistan toppled the Soviet regime.

While the government was and is autocratic, twice in the last 118 years heavy regimes in their nation have been toppled by military shitholes dug into Eastern Europe or Afghanistan.

I bet Putin has this history in mind, but I also think he's drawn the wrong lessons. I suspect he may find his own window, probably not from popular uprising as earlier, but from within as apparatchiks seek to secure their own positions.

 

[Snautzer01]

It was not as hard to crack Enigma as you might think.

Before WW2 the Germans were SELLING the machines internationally.

And after WW2 the British handed them out to 3rd world countries like candy. "Use this. Great machine! We never cracked it."

Marcel did even build one.

Enigma emulator

Bit showing off. As some of you know, I'm a programmer nowadays. A few months ago, I decided to write a simulation of the german Enigma M3 version (as in use by the Kriegsmarine from 1938-1942) from scratch in javascript/typescript for fun and learning purposes. Today I pushed it to my github...

ww2aircraft.net

 

[Marcel]

Marcel did even build one.

Enigma emulator

Bit showing off. As some of you know, I'm a programmer nowadays. A few months ago, I decided to write a simulation of the german Enigma M3 version (as in use by the Kriegsmarine from 1938-1942) from scratch in javascript/typescript for fun and learning purposes. Today I pushed it to my github...

ww2aircraft.net

Yeah, that was a fun project. I should rewrite that UI, I'm much better at that nowadays.

Never got around to write the Bombe unfortunately. I do have the algorithm somewhere, but couldn't be bothered to write a UI for it and then life got in the way.

 

[Ascent]

View: https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lqp5pwiric2v

Looks like Ukrain is upping it's game a bit.

 

[Dimlee]

There's no chance Ukraine ever gets Crimea, and I honestly don't see how Ukraine can negotiate the return of the parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson that Russia holds. What cards or negotiating position does Ukraine hold? Putin doesn't care if his strategic bombers are wrecked as long as Russian boots hold Ukrainian soil.

"Predictions of the Soviet Union's impending demise were discounted by many, if not most, Western academic specialists,[14]​ and had little impact on mainstream Sovietology.[15]​ "Amalrik's essay was welcomed as a piece of brilliant literature in the West" but "[v]irtually no one tended to take it at face value as a piece of political prediction."

Andrei Amalrik - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Will the Soviet Union survive until 1984? : Andrei Amalrik : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

archive.org

 

[Dimlee]

I fear at this rate, a long while. Total Russian casualties since Feb 2022 are equal to a single bad month in WW2.

A single bad month (probably) of the 10+ million army and almost 200 million population. Against a country with a comparable GDP and one of the largest armies in the world.

 

[Denniss]

While soviets have massive manpower reserves this is not so for armored vehicles. Unless they take T-34 and IS-2 from monuments and refurbish them. They are only keeping their number sup by refurbishing 70 year old tanks like T-54 of which they had a lot in reserve but I believe they have almost depleted their stocks of infantry battle taxis. But they seem to swing to chinese motorcycles anyway.

 

[Admiral Beez]

While soviets have massive manpower reserves this is not so for armored vehicles. Unless they take T-34 and IS-2 from monuments and refurbish them. They are only keeping their number sup by refurbishing 70 year old tanks like T-54 of which they had a lot in reserve but I believe they have almost depleted their stocks of infantry battle taxis. But they seem to swing to chinese motorcycles anyway.

I know, and I'd hoped that by now the Russians would have run out of offensive capability and began to fall back, but the Russians keep gaining territory, including reportedly this morning below:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/03/europe/russia-forces-advance-northern-ukraine-sumy-intl

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1085552-russian-army-occupies-almost-450-square-kilometers-of-ukrainian-territory-in-may-deepstate

What will stop these Russians once and for all?

 

[Snautzer01]

While soviets

The are not soviets. They are russian. That a whole lot of difference. A whole lot.

 

[SaparotRob]

While soviets have massive manpower reserves this is not so for armored vehicles. Unless they take T-34 and IS-2 from monuments and refurbish them. They are only keeping their number sup by refurbishing 70 year old tanks like T-54 of which they had a lot in reserve but I believe they have almost depleted their stocks of infantry battle taxis. But they seem to swing to chinese motorcycles anyway.

Did you forget about the Lend-Lease Sherman's?

 

[SaparotRob]

 

[vandee]

Soviet Submarine resupply vehicle?

 

[SaparotRob]

Drones can be anywhere.

 

[buffnut453]

Drones can be anywhere.

They even make it into politics.




Did you see what I did there?