"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (21 Viewers)

[GTX]

Russian minister warns NATO any aggression will be met with a 'decisive response'

While Russia does not intend to attack Europe, its Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has not ruled out action against NATO aggression.

www.abc.net.au

 

[fubar57]

AKA, nuclear war, drinks are on me

 

[GrauGeist]

You know, part of me does hope that Russia provokes artical 5, just so the Kremlin could witness first hand, just exavtly what NATO aggression actually looks like.

 

[Admiral Beez]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSOHS-mxVfs

So, what do we think this weapon Zelenskyy is asking for is? Could it be the AGM-158 JASSM? The Tomahawk Land Attack Missile seems unlikely as Ukraine has no launch platform. What about something to crack the Surokin Line so that Ukraine's tanks can get to Crimea? In the end, I think Zelenskyy was speaking metaphorically, and he means US forces in Ukraine as a post-armistice security guarantee.

 

[Admiral Beez]

You know, part of me does hope that Russia provokes artical 5, just so the Kremlin could witness first hand, just exavtly what NATO aggression actually looks like.

IDK, I don't trust the Turks, Hungarians, Bulgaria and maybe the Italians to step into the fight on day one. As for the rest of us non-US members of NATO, we're rather under equipped. The RAF has all of about one hundred fast jets (plus half as many if we take the RN's co-shared F-35Bs), the RCAF about eighty. If things do go to sh#t, NATO had better use its significant technological advantages to hit very hard at the start to demolish Russia's fighting, command, logistics and communications abilities, as we don't have the staying power.

 

[GrauGeist]

IDK, I don't trust the Turks, Hungarians, Bulgaria and maybe the Italians to step into the fight on day one. As for the rest of us non-US members of NATO, we're rather under equipped. The RAF has all of about one hundred fast jets, the RCAF about eighty. If things do go to sh#t, NATO had better hit very hard at the start to demolish Russia's fighting, command, logistics and communications abilities, as we don't have the staying power.

What is this "Russia's fighting, command, logistics and communications" you speak of?

 

[Admiral Beez]

What is this "Russia's fighting, command, logistics and communications" you speak of?

They may be terrible at offense, but I am talking about those Russian elements and capabilities that more than three years on, despite Ukraine fielding some of the West's most advanced weaponry and enjoying massive NATO financial backing, have still managed to hold the line, keep territory, and blunt nearly every Ukrainian offensive. For a nearly bankrupt nation of just 146 million people, with a poverty-level gdp of $14k per capita, that is no small feat.

 

[GrauGeist]

On the otherhand, little Ukraine has held a world super power at bay with second-hand western weapons and a fraction of the manpower.

I can assure you that Russia, in it's current state, cannon afford to engage front line NATO troops and top-shelf weaponry at the moment.

 

[WARSPITER]

On the otherhand, little Ukraine has held a world super power at bay with second-hand western weapons and a fraction of the manpower.

I can assure you that Russia, in it's current state, cannon afford to engage front line NATO troops and top-shelf weaponry at the moment.

True. I wouldn't expect anyone at the Russian Air command to be chafing at the bit to find and take on half a dozen F-35's, let alone
fifty plus and other NATO aircraft types, especially not all at the same time. Israel showed what the result is with the attack on Iranian
air defence systems - it didn't take long either.

 

[Glider]

I think that we are all in agreement that it would only take a few days to paralyse the Russian logistics and command and control which are already weakened. In addition Ukraine has done serious damage to the air defences and Petro chemical infrastructure which wouldn't take long to finish off.

The one thing that NATO would need to worry is the long range drones, something we still don't have the infrastructure / equipment to deal with.

On the other hand China might well be tempted to get control of parts of Eastern Russia, either by military or 'political' methods. By that I mean the I will make you an offer you cannot refuse kind of political method.

 

[buffnut453]

Today, non-US NATO nations in Europe have about 153 F-35s in operation.

The USAF has 54 F-35s at Lakenheath that should be fully operational this year.

That's a LOT of attacking power that Russia has never faced before.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

That is what I got, but maybe not all F-35 are operational yet and some of the older types may not be fully operational anymore.

Aircraft Type	Total Count (Approx.)	Type Generation	Primary Operating European NATO Countries (Approximate Active Fleet)
F-16 Fighting Falcon	~460	4th Gen	Turkey (Largest Operator), Greece, Poland, Belgium, Portugal, Romania
Eurofighter Typhoon	~470	4.5 Gen	UK (~160), Germany (~143), Italy (~96), Spain (~73)
F-35 Lightning II	~190	5th Gen	Norway (~52), Netherlands (~49), UK (~37), Italy (~37), Denmark (~15)
Dassault Rafale	~136	4.5 Gen	France (~136), Croatia (Acquiring)
Saab JAS-39 Gripen	~99	4/4.5 Gen	Sweden (~75 C/D/E models), Czechia (~12), Hungary (~14-18)
Panavia Tornado	~120	3.5 Gen	Germany (~80), Italy (~40)
F/A-18 Hornet	~81	4th Gen	Spain (~81, EF-18A/B)
MiG-29 Fulcrum	~24	4th Gen	Poland (~11-14), Bulgaria (~10-13)
McDonnell Douglas F-4	~36	3rd Gen	Greece (~17), Turkey (~19, Terminator 2020)
Total Operational Fleet	~1,690+

But anyway it's a lot of air power.

 

[WARSPITER]

That is what I got, but maybe not all F-35 are operational yet and some of the older types may not be fully operational anymore.

Aircraft Type	Total Count (Approx.)	Type Generation	Primary Operating European NATO Countries (Approximate Active Fleet)
F-16 Fighting Falcon	~460	4th Gen	Turkey (Largest Operator), Greece, Poland, Belgium, Portugal, Romania
Eurofighter Typhoon	~470	4.5 Gen	UK (~160), Germany (~143), Italy (~96), Spain (~73)
F-35 Lightning II	~190	5th Gen	Norway (~52), Netherlands (~49), UK (~37), Italy (~37), Denmark (~15)
Dassault Rafale	~136	4.5 Gen	France (~136), Croatia (Acquiring)
Saab JAS-39 Gripen	~99	4/4.5 Gen	Sweden (~75 C/D/E models), Czechia (~12), Hungary (~14-18)
Panavia Tornado	~120	3.5 Gen	Germany (~80), Italy (~40)
F/A-18 Hornet	~81	4th Gen	Spain (~81, EF-18A/B)
MiG-29 Fulcrum	~24	4th Gen	Poland (~11-14), Bulgaria (~10-13)
McDonnell Douglas F-4	~36	3rd Gen	Greece (~17), Turkey (~19, Terminator 2020)
Total Operational Fleet	~1,690+

But anyway it's a lot of air power.

That could serve up a nasty punch in the face.

 

[Admiral Beez]

On the otherhand,..

True, but I did my best to answer your question.

 

[Admiral Beez]

On the other hand China might well be tempted to get control of parts of Eastern Russia, either by military or 'political' methods. By that I mean the I will make you an offer you cannot refuse kind of political method.

That was always my faint hope. If China ever wanted to liberate Yongmingcheng, aka Vladivostok, 2022-onwards was their chance. The popular sentiment is definitely there.

China eyes Russia's Far East as Putin's 'History Lesson' backfires

Chinese nationalists demanded that Russia return Vladivostok following Tucker Carlson's interview with Vladimir Putin.

www.newsweek.com

Imagine if in 2022, Putin invades Ukraine, and Xii declares for Ukraine, sending weapons to Zelenskyy while massing troops on the Russian far east border.

 

[Admiral Beez]

That is what I got, but maybe not all F-35 are operational yet and some of the older types may not be fully operational anymore.

Aircraft Type	Total Count (Approx.)	Type Generation	Primary Operating European NATO Countries (Approximate Active Fleet)
F-16 Fighting Falcon	~460	4th Gen	Turkey (Largest Operator), Greece, Poland, Belgium, Portugal, Romania
Eurofighter Typhoon	~470	4.5 Gen	UK (~160), Germany (~143), Italy (~96), Spain (~73)
F-35 Lightning II	~190	5th Gen	Norway (~52), Netherlands (~49), UK (~37), Italy (~37), Denmark (~15)
Dassault Rafale	~136	4.5 Gen	France (~136), Croatia (Acquiring)
Saab JAS-39 Gripen	~99	4/4.5 Gen	Sweden (~75 C/D/E models), Czechia (~12), Hungary (~14-18)
Panavia Tornado	~120	3.5 Gen	Germany (~80), Italy (~40)
F/A-18 Hornet	~81	4th Gen	Spain (~81, EF-18A/B)
MiG-29 Fulcrum	~24	4th Gen	Poland (~11-14), Bulgaria (~10-13)
McDonnell Douglas F-4	~36	3rd Gen	Greece (~17), Turkey (~19, Terminator 2020)
Total Operational Fleet	~1,690+

But anyway it's a lot of air power.

I know you're looking at Euros, but as the only non-US NATO member outside of Europe I suggest that we include Canada's CF-18s. If there's an action in Europe, the RCAF will deploy much of the fleet to participate.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

You know, part of me does hope that Russia provokes artical 5, just so the Kremlin could witness first hand, just exavtly what NATO aggression actually looks like.

As we say down here in Tejas -- you mess with the bull, you get the horns.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine's Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant entered its fifth day running on emergency generators Saturday, prompting mounting safety concerns.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, announced a $90 billion arms agreement with the United States and criticized Hungary for carrying out "dangerous" intelligence-gathering drone activities over Ukraine.

External power to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest, has been cut for more than four days in a record outage at the six-reactor facility on the front line of the war, Greenpeace Ukraine warned Saturday.

Emergency diesel generators are being used to power cooling and safety systems after the final power line was severed on Tuesday, according to the U.N. nuclear watchdog. Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday, but the external power supply was not restored.

[...]

Zelenskyy detailed Saturday at a press briefing in Kyiv what he called a "mega deal" for weapons purchases from the United States, with technical meetings beginning in late September. The $90 billion package includes both the major arms agreement and a separate "drone deal" for Ukrainian-made drones that the U.S. will purchase directly.

Ukraine nuclear plant enters fifth day on emergency power as Zelenskyy announces $90B arms deal

Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant entered its fifth day running on emergency generators Saturday, creating mounting safety concerns at Europe’s largest nuclear facility.

apnews.com

 

[special ed]

Most of my believable intel comes from postings on this forum. Ukraine's drones seem to fly into Russian bases at will and blast aircraft and supplies. The air defense seems to be civilians filming flying drones with phones.

 

[GTX]

So, what do we think this weapon Zelenskyy is asking for is? Could it be the AGM-158 JASSM? The Tomahawk Land Attack Missile seems unlikely as Ukraine has no launch platform. What about something to crack the Surokin Line so that Ukraine's tanks can get to Crimea? In the end, I think Zelenskyy was speaking metaphorically, and he means US forces in Ukraine as a post-armistice security guarantee.

I can think of a couple of options:

• AGM158 JASSM is an option but only if they get them in large quantities and then one might argue that they still give capability akin to the Storm Shadows.
• BGM-109 Tomahawk missiles is another but other than range I doubt it will give anything war winning unless supplied in large numbers with no restrictions - there is some indication that this may be what was asked for - see here. It can be ground launched in something like the Typhon missile system which can combine the Tomahawks with the likes of SM6 - this would be especially useful
• Epirus Leonidas high-power microwave (HPM) weapon is another radical option - if as capable as hinted and again supplied in good numbers could be very useful.
• Guaranteed large quantities of conventional munitions - not sexy but having guaranteed access to large quantities of artillery etc would be useful but doesn't really fit the description