Hi Tony,
>The only possible sources for this information - the aircrew involved - would have been far too busy to make a careful note of this even if they knew, particularly since estimation of the ranges in air-to-air combat was notoriously inaccurate.
As Kurfürst already pointed out, the report was in fact based on gun camera films from combat situations, but additionally the results from non-combat trials were taken into account, too. (The report only mentions this in passing.)
I think the air forces were so well aware of the range estimation problem you pointed out because they were routinely comparing these films with the corresponding combat reports by the pilots.
>I would say that it represents the
maximum range at which hits might be expected to be scored. As we know, a B-17 required many 20mm hits to be brought down, so it could take a long time to acccumulate those hits at long range.
Hm, since the lethality of your fire depends on the concentration of hits, you would always want to have the convergence distance closely match with the typical range at which kills are achieved.
In fact, the "maximum" range (whatever this means

is always beyond convergence distance because the geometry of the diverging trajectories does not lead to a sharp drop-off of lethality, but to a gradual one. (Making it more difficult to define the "maximum" effective range.)
Here is the complete hit percentage table as used in the detailed report:
Code:
Range - 500 m - 1 km - 1.5 km
MG 151 - 9.1% - 3.0% - 0.8%
MG 213 - 10.0% - 3.8% - 1.2%
MK 108 - 8.3% - 3.3% - 0.9%
MK 103 - 10.0% - 3.8% - 1.3%
MK 412 - 10.0% - 3.8% - 1.3%
MK 214 - 10.5% - 4.2% - 1.5%
Note that the ca. 10% hit percentage at 500 m goes well with the 5% assumption from the "Bad Eilsen" overview since you'd have to allow a greater ammunition supply to make sure to have enough in a below-average attack.
The number of hits required per weapon according to the report:
Code:
Pk - 50% - 95%
MG 151 - 18 - 25
MG 213 - 18 - 25
MK 108 - 4 - 7.3
MK 103 - 4 - 7.3
MK 412 - 1 - 2.8
MK 214 - 1 - 2.8
Note that this is slightly more than the figures often quoted in popular books. I guess this might be because the "Bad Eilsen" overview does not quote the Probability of Kill (besides using slightly different figure of 20 hits for the MG 151/20 and 5 for the MK 108) achieved with the stated number of hits. From the direct comparison, I'd say it is only 50%, making the popular "5 hits for a kill" statement a bit suspect.
The weight of the weapon including mounting and ammunition required for a 95% Probability of Kill (Pk) from 500 m:
Code:
Pk - kg - firing time
MG 151 - 119.7 - 17 s
MG 213 - 194.3 - 11 s
MK 108 - 140.4 - 5 s
MK 103 - 267.7 - 6 s
The report originally was provided by Karl over at alt.games.warbirds. Unfortunately, I have only two of the pages, so some details are missing
Regards,
Henning (HoHun)