China Rocket to Make Uncontrolled Re-Entry

Zipper730 · May 6, 2021

China launched a modular component of it's space-station into orbit. Unfortunately the rocket-that launched it is scheduled to re-enter the atmosphere in an uncontrolled fashion on May 8th. They haven't really been able to predict the exact entry point up to this point but one source says the flight-path was from New Zealand to Newfoundland, most sources are saying 41.5 North to South, which is a pretty large area of Earth.

Chinese rocket stage predicted to reenter atmosphere around May 8 - SpaceNews

pbehn · May 6, 2021

All rocket stages are uncontrolled, why are Chinas uncontrolled pieces of metal different to others? Even those that are controlled helpfully advise things like it may hit the USA and wont it Australia. List of reentering space debris - Wikipedia. The attached list says Skylab was partially controlled, which is a surprise to those who remember it, pieces landed in Australian and USA.
List of reentering space debris - Wikipedia
Skylab - Wikipedia

Shinpachi · May 6, 2021

China designed it uncontrollable in order to save the costs and time for development.
Design concept is decades behind.

Gnomey · May 6, 2021

The last one hit the Ivory Coast…

pbehn · May 6, 2021

Gnomey said:
The last one hit the Ivory Coast…

Thats a poor show, Skylab hit USA and Australia, turned into an interesting media event with prizes for finding debris.

Zipper730 · May 6, 2021

P pbehn Yeah but that was in the 1970's. It's like 2021 now, you'd think people would have learned a little.

pbehn · May 6, 2021

Zipper730 said:
P pbehn Yeah but that was in the 1970's. It's like 2021 now, you'd think people would have learned a little.

Learned what? At the speed an orbiting object travels the smallest error means you miss by half the earths circumference. The kidology is that the west make controlled re entry and the others dont, I cant see any evidence for any of it unless they need the returned pay load of people or vehicles.

nuuumannn · May 6, 2021

With modern guidance systems, you can actually predict and guide rocket debris such as stages and errant satellites to enter the earth's atmosphere at particular trajectories which determine their impact radius and velocity, important in determining what size chunks remain after re-entry. This is how SpaceX can recover its first-stage boosters. Like Shinpachi said, it's cheaper not to. Recently a discarded rocket stage hit the ground near a school.

Chinese rocket stage appears to crash near school during Gaofen 11 satellite launch | Space

I've got my tin foil hat on in case it comes too close...

pbehn · May 6, 2021

nuuumannn said:
With modern guidance systems, you can actually predict and guide rocket debris such as stages and errant satellites to enter the earth's atmosphere at particular trajectories which determine their impact radius and velocity, important in determining what size chunks remain after re-entry. This is how SpaceX can recover its first-stage boosters. Like Shinpachi said, it's cheaper not to. Recently a discarded rocket stage hit the ground near a school.

Chinese rocket stage appears to crash near school during Gaofen 11 satellite launch | Space

I've got my tin foil hat on in case it comes too close...

And when a space X rocket explodes on take off that is also part of the calculations? The earth rotates such that on the equator you are doing approximately 1000MPH when standing still. Put that with the speed of the decaying orbit of a satellite and I think the idea of control is a nice fantasy.

Lucky13 · May 6, 2021

Lucky13 · May 6, 2021

Lucky13 · May 6, 2021

Crimea_River · May 6, 2021

And we have a winner in the oops I posted in the wrong thread contest.

Lucky13 · May 7, 2021

Never post before your cuppa children!

I'm sure that our most admired ringleaders will correct the boo boo....and put them in the right thread!

at6 · May 7, 2021

To track the orbit pattern, try Orbit.ing-now.com. It a real time tracker which shows that the orbit is becoming more erratic with time as the distance to re-entry draws closer. It's updated every few hours with speed and altitude measured in kilometers. It's interesting to watch as it orbits overhead.

SaparotRob · May 7, 2021

at6 said:
To track the orbit pattern, try Orbit.ing-now.com. It a real time tracker which shows that the orbit is becoming more erratic with time as the distance to re-entry draws closer. It's updated every few hours with speed and altitude measured in kilometers. It's interesting to watch as it orbits overhead.

What a cool site! Thanks for posting it.

dsmerritt · May 7, 2021

pbehn said:
And when a space X rocket explodes on take off that is also part of the calculations? The earth rotates such that on the equator you are doing approximately 1000MPH when standing still. Put that with the speed of the decaying orbit of a satellite and I think the idea of control is a nice fantasy.

So glad to know that's what you think. As it happens, living in Houston and having friends in Clear Lake where NASA is, I get to talk to people who actually do orbital mechanics, as it's called, for a living. They think you're wrong. I'm more inclined to think they're right than you, although you're certainly entitled to your apparently heart felt opinion. They think the Chinese are fully capable of doing this, but just don't care and won't spend the monwy. You know, ruthless. Like in Hong Kong. Why are you making excuses for a muderous, even genocidal, totalitarian dictatorship?

pbehn · May 7, 2021

dsmerritt said:
So glad to know that's what you think. As it happens, living in Houston and having friends in Clear Lake where NASA is, I get to talk to people who actually do orbital mechanics, as it's called, for a living. They think you're wrong. I'm more inclined to think they're right than you, although you're certainly entitled to your apparently heart felt opinion. They think the Chinese are fully capable of doing this, but just don't care and won't spend the monwy. You know, ruthless. Like in Hong Kong. Why are you making excuses for a muderous, even genocidal, totalitarian dictatorship?

I didnt know that I was. I just pointed out that the partially controlled return of Skylab managed to land pieces in Australia and the USA. Modern politics isnt a topic for this forum.

at6 · May 7, 2021

pbehn said:
I didnt know that I was. I just pointed out that the partially controlled return of Skylab managed to land pieces in Australia and the USA. Modern politics isnt a topic for this forum.

It must be considered that Skylab had control capability built in to it. This rocket doesn't have any of that. Another question occurred to me today. What happens if the debris that does survive strikes a populated area or in the case of areas where there is substantial air traffic, strikes an airliner in flight? Will China step up and compensate the victims? Observing the orbit, every few orbits has it passing over where I live.

pbehn · May 7, 2021

at6 said:
It must be considered that Skylab had control capability built in to it. This rocket doesn't have any of that. Another question occurred to me today. What happens if the debris that does survive strikes a populated area or in the case of areas where there is substantial air traffic, strikes an airliner in flight? Will China step up and compensate the victims? Observing the orbit, every few orbits has it passing over where I live.

My basic point was that Australia is in the Southern hemisphere and USA is in the north, they are separated by the Pacific ocean. Whatever partial control they had amounts to no control.

China Rocket to Make Uncontrolled Re-Entry

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