Covid-19 reports

fatality rate 3.2% (-0.1)

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All-case fatality rate by age group according to the case and fatality totals presented in the March 10th extended document (Table 5 on page 24). Cases and fatalities without an age are excluded (102 cases and 3 deaths).

0-9 years: . . . . .0.007%
10-19 years: . . .0.005%
20-29 years: . . .0.014%
30-39 years: . . .0.05%
40-49 years: . . .0.17%
50-59 years: . . .0.59%
60-69 years: . . .2.72%
70-79 years: . . .9.44%
80-89 years: . .19.78%
90+ years: . . . 26.75%

Overall (all ages): 3.22%

mortality rate 1,693 per million (+39)

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All-case fatality rate from start of pandemic through March 10, 2021, on a standard per capita (per 100,000) basis using 2019 Italian population figures for each age group. Cases and fatalities without an age are excluded (102 cases and 3 deaths).

0-9 years: . . . . . . .0.20 - (10 deaths out of 5,090,482 persons in the age group)
10-19 years: . . . . .0.24 - (14 deaths out of 5,768,874 persons in the age group)
20-29 years: . . . . .0.84 - (52 deaths out of 6,201,270 persons in the age group)
30-39 years: . . . . .2.67 - (189 deaths out of 7,074,218 persons in the age group)
40-49 years: . . . . .9.03 - (835 deaths out of 9,242,654 persons in the age group)
50-59 years: . . . .34.42 - (3,219 deaths out of 9,352,231 persons in the age group)
60-69 years: . . .127.75 - (9,373 deaths out of 7,337,210 persons in the age group)
70-79 years: . . .404.54 - (24,121 deaths out of 5,962,533 persons in the age group)
80-89 years: . 1,165.22 - (41,430 deaths out of 3,555,546 persons in the age group)
90+ years: . . .2,629.34 - (20,365 deaths out of 774,528 persons in the age group)

Overall (all ages): 165.42 - (99,608 deaths out of 60,359,546 persons)

Italy report, 21st March, weekly changes
cases 3,376,376 +153,234, deaths 104,942 +2,797, recovered 2,699,762, +110,031, active cases 571,672, +40,406, tests 38,553,755, +1,278,579, people tested 21,873,168, +735,154, vaccines administered 7,808,120, +1,106,956*, people full vaccinated 2,483,191, +483,691. * AstraZeneca was stopped for 3 and half day
fatality rate 3.1% (-0.1)
mortality rate 1,740 per million (+47)
test rate 639.2 per thousand (+21.2)
positive rate 15.4% (+0.2)
vaccines on population 129,451 per million (+18,352)
people full vaccinated 41,169 per million (+8,019)
test rate this week 21,198 per million (+275)
positive rate this week 20.8% (+0.4)
new case rate this week 2,540 per million (-41)
new vaccines this week 18,352 per million (-3,163)
people full vaccinated this week 8,019 per million (+2,223)

Age breakdown of COVID deaths in Italy from start of pandemic through March 17th, 2021. Figure in parentheses is the change from last week's extended report. Cases and deaths without an attributed age are excluded (104 cases and 5 deaths).

Source: Table 5 on page 23 of the COVID-19 epidemic 17th March 2021 national update extended document.

0-9 years = ...............10 -- (no change)
10-19 years = ..........14 -- (no change)
20-29 years = ..........51 -- (-1)*
30-39 years = ........191 -- (+2)
40-49 years = ........863 -- (+28)
50-59 years = ....3,339 -- (+120)
60-69 years = ....9,636 -- (+263)
70-79 years = ..24,773 -- (+652)
80-89 years = ..42,354 -- (+924)
90+ years = ......20,774 -- (+409)

*Presumably a data error correction.

1.47 times more persons aged 90+ have died (20,774) than have all those aged 0-69 combined (14,104). Those under 60 years of age comprise 70.79% of Italy's population and 71.62% of all virus cases but only 4.38% of the deaths (with 74.7% of the under-60 deaths occurring in the 50-59 age bracket).

Calculated all-case survival/recovery rate by age group:

0-9 years = .....99.994%
10-19 years = 99.995%
20-29 years = 99.987%
30-39 years = 99.953%
40-49 years = 99.834%
50-59 years = 99.417%
60-69 years = 97.336%
70-79 years = 90.748%
80-89 years = 80.441%
90+ years = ....73.273%

Calculated all-case survival/recovery rate by age group for Canada as of March 19th for comparison. Note that Canada does not break out the data for the under-20 and 80+ age brackets into smaller age groupings. (Case and fatality figures source: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Epidemiology update - Demographics)

0-19 years = . 99.997% -- (Italy, 99.995% for this age grouping)
20-29 years = 99.978%
30-39 years = 99.946%
40-49 years = 99.864%
50-59 years = 99.501%
60-69 years = 97.746%
70-79 years = 90.302%
80+ years = .. 75.222% -- (Italy, 78.548% for this age grouping)

This morning in my town open the only saturday morning vaccination center, they did 36 vaccines,
they vaccinated only people with pathologies, at choice of the "family doctors"*
* this are of regional health system

COVID outbreaks and the resulting number of cases and deaths by outbreak location type, as reported in the Public Health Agency of Canada's weekly COVID epidemiological report published March 26, which covers up through March 20th.

Figures in order are number of outbreaks, number of cases, and number of deaths. The percentage of the applicable total is in parentheses. A total of 9,049 outbreaks are covered which resulted in 126,870 virus cases and 13,518 deaths.

Community: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .201 (2.2%) . . . 11,355 (9.0%) . . . . . . 88 (0.65%) . . .56.49 cases per outbreak; 0.438 deaths per outbreak
Corrections/shelter/congregate living: . . . . . . .693 (7.7%) . . . 11,732 (9.2%) . . . . .226 (1.67%) . . . 16.93 cases per outbreak; 0.326 deaths per outbreak
Food/drink/retail: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .647 (7.2%) . . . ..2,257 (1.8%) . . . . . . . 3 (0.02%) . . . . .3.49 cases per outbreak; 0.005 deaths per outbreak
Health care: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .723 (8.0%) . . . 10,516 (8.3%) . . . . . 798 (5.90%) . . . 14.54 cases per outbreak; 1.104 deaths per outbreak
Industrial (including agriculture): . . . . . . . . . . . 484 (5.4%) . . . 11,505 (9.1%) . . . . . . 24 (0.18%) . . . 23.77 cases per outbreak; 0.050 deaths per outbreak)
Long-term care and retirement residences: .4,319 (47.8%) . . 66,287 (52.2%) . 12,372 (91.52%) . . 15.35 cases per outbreak; 2.865 deaths per outbreak
Personal care: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 (0.6%) . . . . . .415 (0.3%) . . . . . . . .0 (0.00%) . . . . 8.14 cases per outbreak; 0.000 deaths per outbreak
School & childcare centre: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,383 (15.3%) . . . 7,627 (6.0%) . . . . . . . .1 (0.01%) . . . . 5.51 cases per outbreak; 0.001 deaths per outbreak
Other: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .544 (6.0%) . . . . 5,176 (4.1%) . . . . . . . .6 (0.04%) . . . . 9.51 cases per outbreak; 0.011 deaths per outbreak

Imputed case fatality rate by location type:

. 0.77% = Community
. 1.93% = Corrections/shelter/congregate living
. 0.13% = Food/drink/retail
. 7.59% = Health care
. 0.21% = Industrial (including agriculture)
18.66% = Long-term care and retirement residences
. 0.00% = Personal care
. 0.01% = School & childcare centre
. 0.12% = Other

Community includes population centres, Indigenous communities, Mennonite, Reserves, and small city outbreaks.
Industrial includes automotive manufacturing, distribution/processing facilities, worker camps, waste management/recycling, warehouse, etc.
Personal care refers to personal care services, such as hair salons, nail salons, etc.
School & childcare includes daycare centres and day camps, excluding facilities that report only one case.
Other groups together outbreaks in settings not listed in the categories above, e.g. social gatherings, office workplaces, recreational facilities, etc.

The 126,870 virus cases and 13,518 deaths from the reported outbreaks comprise approximately 14% of all virus cases and 60% of all deaths in the country at that time.

Outbreak data source: Table 6 on page 12 of the Canada COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Report (14 March to 20 March 2021)

In the UK more than 90% of all those who have died were aged 60 or over. More than half were aged 80 or over. Even in these age groups most of the dead had comorbidities, which is hardly surprising given that we all tend to develop them as we age.

Thankfully, they all now have some protection unless they declined or are unable to be vaccinated as we start to vaccinate the group of those aged 50 and above. Though at little risk of dying they may still develop a serious illness without vaccination.

My wife knew one woman in her late seventies who declined to be vaccinated in January/February (not sure when) and who has just died from Covid. You make your choices, but then you take the consequences.

... and that's how it should always remain ... except for prisons.

Italy report, 29th March, eight day change, i missed to download the yesterday data
cases 3,544,957 +168,581, deaths 108,350 +3,408, recovered 2,870,614, +170,852, active cases 565,993, -5,679, tests 39,924,265, +1,370,510, people tested 22,773,499, +900,331, vaccines administered 9,499,293, +1,691,173, people full vaccinated 2,996,933, +483,691.
fatality rate 3.1% (=)
mortality rate 1,796 per million (+56)
test rate 661.9 per thousand (+22.7)
positive rate 15.6% (+0.2)
vaccines on population 157,489 per million (+28,038)
people full vaccinated 49,686 per million (+8,517)

My town had to Sunday, 28th, 24 active cases, and a total of 8 (+1) deaths

The vaccination programme is having an effect here. More than 30 million have at least the first dose (30,680,948 ). Figures are for the week ending 28/3.

The estimated R number is 0.7 to 0.9 with a daily infection growth rate range of -5% to -2% as of 26 March 2021, so overall infection rates are falling..

We have seen a rise in infection in school age children, hardly surprising since they returned to school and social distancing is not their forte. However positive tests are down 7.9%
The UK carried out 1,641,942 tests per day on average last week.

Deaths are down 35%.

Hospital admissions are down 22.1%

stona said:

In the UK more than 90% of all those who have died were aged 60 or over. More than half were aged 80 or over.

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The following data from Canada may be of interest.

Those aged 80 or older comprise:

51.43% of all-cause deaths in 2019
69.32% of influenza and pneumonia deaths in 2019
68.77% of all COVID deaths in 2020-21

Those aged 70 or older comprise:

73.25% of all-cause deaths in 2019
84.78% of influenza and pneumonia deaths in 2019
88.02% of all COVID deaths in 2020-21

Those aged 60 or older comprise:

87.46% of all-cause deaths in 2019
93.25% of influenza and pneumonia deaths in 2019
95.85% of all COVID deaths in 2020-21

Vaccine program here is a mess. It's way too slow.

Marcel said:

Vaccine program here is a mess. It's way too slow.

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It's a mess here too.

I just got my vaccine appointment appointment a few minutes ago. I Have to wait until the 18th. I'm registered at every hospital and provider in my area so hopefully one will contact me with an earlier appointment and then I will just cancel the later one I have now.

And I just got out of the hospital, bladder bleeding again..................
But came out with a dry cough............... just had a Covid test, now the wait!
I'm 78 in 2 months.

N4521U said:

And I just got out of the hospital, bladder bleeding again..................
But came out with a dry cough............... just had a Covid test, now the wait!
I'm 78 in 2 months.

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My thoughts are with you my friend. Get well!

DerAdlerIstGelandet said:

It's a mess here too.

I just got my vaccine appointment appointment a few minutes ago. I Have to wait until the 18th. I'm registered at every hospital and provider in my area so hopefully one will contact me with an earlier appointment and then I will just cancel the later one I have now.

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My 77 year old mum with asthma only just got her appointment. The way it goes, I believe I'll get mine in Augustus or so.

N4521U said:

And I just got out of the hospital, bladder bleeding again..................
But came out with a dry cough............... just had a Covid test, now the wait!
I'm 78 in 2 months.

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Hope you'll be alright. Get well!

Just now, negative!

Italy report, 5th April, weekly change, monday to monday report, in Italy the after easter monday is holiday
cases 3,678,944 +133,987, deaths 111,326 +2,976, recovered 2,997,522, +126,908, active cases 570,096, +4,103, tests 41,106,214, +1,181,949, people tested 23,394,151, +620,652, vaccines administered 11,215,062, +1,715,769, people full vaccinated 3,475,919, +478,986.
fatality rate 3.0% (-0.1)
mortality rate 1,846 per million (+50)
test rate 681.5 per thousand (+19.6)
positive rate 15.7% (+0.1)
vaccines on population 185,935 per million (+28,446)
people full vaccinated 57,628 per million (+7,942)
test rate this week 19,596 per million (NA)
positive rate this week 21.6% (NA)
new case rate this week 2,221 per million (NA)
new vaccines this week 28,446 per million (NA)
people full vaccinated this week 7,941 per million (NA)

I hate saying it but the UK seem to be getting on top of this at the moment. It was announced yesterday that the seven day average of deaths over the last week due to Covid, was 37 people a day.

We made some terrible decisions at the start and our total deaths as a percentage to the population is amongst the highest in the world, but we do seem to have learnt some lessons.

Maybe, just maybe, the end could be in sight.

As an aside, I use the John Hopkins website as a point of reference but its now unavailable from here. I hope they sort it out

Yeah, the one thing you did right was the vaccine program. And that's a mess here, so we are still in deep sh!t.

btw, nice explanation about the efficiency of the vaccines: