Earhart's Plane Found?!

[Tom Maxwell]

As Flyboy points out, the Orona-Saipan theory has a long way to go before getting any traction among investigators of the AE mystery. 2017 will be a turning point if TIGHAR group gets the deep dive off Nikumaroro financed. I think this should put the Nikumaroro theory to sleep as professional HURL personnel will be operating the PISCS IV and V diving machines and observing during the dives. This will prevent the "we discovered an anomaly and must return" excuse to continue considering Nikumaroro. With Nikumaroro out, that leaves crash and sink, New Britain PNG, Milli Atoll, and last and least Ortona. My prediction is that Orona will be next to be tested simply because of low cost. Crash and sink costs millions. Who will do it? I don't know.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

Crash and sink or the castaway theory IMO are the on viable avenues to look at as they have offered the greatest amount of sensible evidence so far. IMO I believe she landed (or crash landed) the aircraft in a location where she thought it could be salvaged. I make that statement because what's never brought up is she made two attempts to fly around the world. On the first attempt she ground looped her aircraft on Ford Island. It had to be shipped backed to Lockheed for repairs. Although she had folks with deep pockets backing her, I'm sure she was considering the loss of her Model 10 which cost $80,000 ($1.3 million in today's money) and the $30,000 it cost to fix it. If you ever flew in an aircraft approaching bingo fuel it's amazing, despite being taught about self-preservation the remarkable ability one's brain has to recall purchase and repair cost of the aircraft you're flying as that fuel caution light illuminates. Additionally, there's an old navy saying, "it's better to die than to look bad." Again my opinion...

 

[GrauGeist]

As Flyboy points out, the Orona-Saipan theory has a long way to go before getting any traction among investigators of the AE mystery. 2017 will be a turning point if TIGHAR group gets the deep dive off Nikumaroro financed. I think this should put the Nikumaroro theory to sleep as professional HURL personnel will be operating the PISCS IV and V diving machines and observing during the dives. This will prevent the "we discovered an anomaly and must return" excuse to continue considering Nikumaroro. With Nikumaroro out, that leaves crash and sink, New Britain PNG, Milli Atoll, and last and least Ortona. My prediction is that Orona will be next to be tested simply because of low cost. Crash and sink costs millions. Who will do it? I don't know.

However, Nikumaroro island has the only evidence in the form of aircraft wreckage and non shipwreck/colonist presence. The shipwreck was on the opposite island from where aircraft wreckage was found as well as the artifacts that were non-shipwreck related.

There were also credible reports from pilots and sailors who reported signs of habitation before the British brought colonists to the island. Add to this, the verified radio direction finder bearings from Wake, Midway and Hawaii that converge on the Pheonix group, falling almost directly on Nikumaroro island during the short time that radio transmissions were picked up after her disappearance.

 

[Peter Gunn]

I think the part that saddens me the most is how easily people can ignore some basic facts and latch on to some runaway theory that does a pretty good dis-service to the actual people involved at the time (AE, U. S. Navy, Japan). The Nikumaroro thing to me is at least plausible, but I lament that crackpot theories with NO basis in fact are considered (and will probably gain traction as the years pile up) "history". The whole 'captured by the Japanese and killed as a spy' thing is so patently ridiculous to any thinking person as to belie imagination, yet over the years it now seems it's an accepted theory/fact as to what happened to her.

Cr*st all Friday, I lose faith in the human race more each day.

As an aside, I've always figured it was crash and sink unfortunately, but any evidence to the contrary (based in fact) makes me keep an open mind about it.

 

[Robert Porter]

I was fascinated with this story for years and have read everything I could lay my hands on. Have to agree with FlyBoyJ. From what few facts are known the crash and sink and/or Nikumaroro castaway thoughts seem the most likely. I just cannot believe if she had been captured and executed we would not have heard something. It would have been a propaganda coup for both sides. The problem is at this point honestly all we have are thoughts and theory there is darn little factual data to support any serious conclusions.

Truly, just for the sake of historical closure I would love for someone to definitively find the evidence to close this event out. But as more time goes by the likelihood of that happening gets much less. I suppose she, along with Hitler, and Elvis, could have been kidnapped by aliens at this point its probably as viable a theory as any other.

 

[Tom Maxwell]

The 2017 Nikumaroro expedition will be the tenth test of the Nikumaroro theory. All the previous tests at Nikumaroro have failed to bring forth definitive evidence.
The Orona theory is not new. James Donahue's 1987 book claims that the flight landed at Orona (Hull Island) and that the resident manager William Jones was an agent of British intelligence. And further, the USN made up the entire -Lambrecht landed and talked to Jones- story. Donahue thought that Jones and coconut crew pushed the aircraft off the reef flat and sank it in deep water. Sound familiar? This "AE was a spy" version says AE died while under house arrest in American Samoa.

My current Orona theory says the flight crashed at Orona and she was captured by Japanese. Somehow Donahue got wind of the Orona story and Jones involvement. Entirely different scenerios of course. My version says AE was not a spy and she was not executed. She was the pawn in a hoax spy accusation by the IJA convincing the IJN that the US was spying. All of those involved in the captivity and death of AE (by illness) died at either Roi-Namor or Saipan. The top military people- Saito, Nagumo, Yamamoto - all died before war's end. Tojo took the secret with him to the gallows.

Testing Orona will be easy. Water depth about 35 feet. If the image is light and shadow and not the real thing, the test will be a one time test. None of this -we found an anomaly.....

 

[GrauGeist]

Nonsense...like I have stated before, if the Japanese came across Earnhart in distress, this would have been a HUGE propaganda opportunity for them as the benevolent saviors.

The Nikumororo (Gardner) Island artifacts lend far more credibility as they indicate not only a woman's presence there, but there is also period aircraft debris all found in an area that had no contact with later colonists or the earlier shipwreck event.

Also, Nikumororo is in line with Howland Island with respect to the Electra's fuel capacity and would be consistant with a navigational error in regards to the Electra's fuel exhaustion. Add to that, the radio beam triangulation from U.S. military radio stations in the short time after her disappearance and this adds up to far more credibility than conspiracy theories and whatnot. The Japanese weren't stupid...a quick search of her aircraft would have shown that there was no surveillance or photo recon aboard. And again, she was a world-wide celebrity and would have been a massive PR coupe if the Japanese had rescued her.

 

[FLYBOYJ]

Evidently Tom needs a history lesson about US/ Japanese relations in 1937. All this cloak and dagger myth is from an over active imagination.

Tom, as mentioned, you're entitled to your opinions and theories are all good, but when they don't match the actual and REAL current events of the day, those theories become myths and distortions. For example, as for some of those who could have been behind holding EA;

In 1937 Tojo was in China. In 1937 Yamamoto was Deputy Navy Minister, way above the capacity of playing with a captured American flyer. In 1937 Nagumo was the commander of the IJN torpedo school at Oppama near Yokosuka, thousands of miles from the South Pacific and Saito was in China as a major general.

Tom, wrap your head around the fact that Japan was not preparing for war against the US when EA disappeared, relations were good and the US was still trading with Japan and all those major players didn't come on scene until 1939/ 1940. The push for war against western powers began in 1940 and it wasn't until mid 1941 when the US embargo began, did the Japanese become truly anti-west. If EA disappeared in 1940, your theory would be more creditable, but actual events of the day blow it out of the water!

 

[Shinpachi]

This is a Japanese weekly magazine published in 1937.
Deanna Durbin - a Hollywood Star

 

[Shinpachi]

From April 10 to August 10 in 1937, Helen Keller visited Japan for the US-Japan friendship !

 

[Robert Porter]

I have often read, with the notable exception of Tojo, that most of the Japanese military was not at all interested in war with the US. That sentiment changed somewhat about 1939 - 1940 as we pressed harder for them to leave China and threatened an embargo of several critical materials if they did not. Until that time Japan was more friendly than not to the US. I find it incomprehensible that they would at any level have done anything other than render aide to AE if she were found by them. Since I don't actually know the truth I cannot say for certain that it did not happen. But I believe Ockham's razor applies here and the simplest answer that fits the known facts is most likely the truth.

 

[Shinpachi]

Good point, Robert

Baseball became very popular rapidly in Japan since 1934 when Babe Ruth visited.

Japan's baseball magazine in 1937.

 

[Tom Maxwell]

You are confusing Japanese society and the pro-Axis (Nazi) elements that slowly enveloped the nation's political system. Germany and the US maintained relations until it became apparent what Hitler was up to. Japan and the US maintained relations until the IJA crimes in China became intolerable. Japanese society was kept in the dark about what was developing. The Japanese military didn't wait until a summers day in 1941 to decide to ramp up capability and plan the Pearl Harbor attack. The planning and training to attack the US took years starting in the middle of 1937. The IJA rampage in China that started in late '37 forced the buildup as the pro-Axis forces in the IJA knew war with the US was inevitable. Tojo in China doing his dirt to the Chinese in 1937 doesn't mean he could not control the IJA in the mandated area.

Yamamoto was not involved in the initial capture. He and other IJN leaders were the target of the spy hoax. The IJA portrayed AE as a spy and helped motivate the IJN to a offense strategy. Abandoning the decades old defensive strategy took years of re-training in tactics and equipment. Yamamoto rejected the idea of war with the US knowing the US could float much more steel in the long run. The spy hoax, political pressures, and veiled death threats from Tojo's goons forced him into the Pearl Harbor plan.

 

[buffnut453]

The US maintained diplomatic relations with Nazi Germany even after the US ambassador was recalled in late 1938 following Kristallnacht. The Tripartite Pact between Germany, Japan and Italy wasn't signed until 1940. The tipping point for war between the US and Japan was the latter's move into southern Indo-China in July 1941. How can these events possibly have influenced Amelia Earhart's disappearance in 1937? Your timeline simply doesn't make sense.

 

[Robert Porter]

On another forum years ago I read a long thread where two folks honestly seem to believe that a US "special" unit attacked Pearl Harbor with Japanese planes in order to push the US into the war. No amount of factual argument could dissuade these folks of their theory. There are pictures of us pulling dead Japanese pilots from the harbor, and those pilots had identity papers. Not to mention thousands of pages of Japanese planning documents recovered after the war etc. I guess some people just want to cling to their world view no matter how much it strays from established fact. Hey, they could be right I suppose but honestly I think I will stick to the known and documented facts and timelines that are well established.

 

[Shinpachi]

I understand there was conflict of interest between two countries in the prewar but I think I have found out the evidence that the relationship between the U.S. and Japan was friendly and normal when she was alive. Here are copies of official documents issued by the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo though the flight itself seems cancelled.

 

[Tom Maxwell]

The US maintained diplomatic relations with Nazi Germany even after the US ambassador was recalled in late 1938 following Kristallnacht. The Tripartite Pact between Germany, Japan and Italy wasn't signed until 1940. The tipping point for war between the US and Japan was the latter's move into southern Indo-China in July 1941. How can these events possibly have influenced Amelia Earhart's disappearance in 1937? Your timeline simply doesn't make sense.

Well obviously buffnut453 is looking at the timeline from some angle that is different than mine. Events that occur after 1937 can not impact the previous event that occurred in '37. In no way could the events of '38, '40, or '41 impact the events of '37. That's how time works. The events in '37 could of course impact later events.

 

[Shinpachi]

Memos attached to the screening docs tell that, according to the international aviation rules, Japanese authorities should give her flight permission but, to do so, they need to be presented a certificate of air worthiness because there were not a few crash accidents by the record challengers at the time.

 

[vikingBerserker]

Very nice!

 

[Robert Porter]

Great stuff Shinpachi!