Earhart's Plane Found?!

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So I see you've taken the tour then.
 
The photo is looking less like evidence now...

In an English-language post, the blogger explains that "the photograph was first published in Palau under Japanese rule in 1935, in a photo book ... So the photograph was taken at least two years before Amelia Earhart disappear[ed] in 1937 and a person on the photo was not her."
The photo book in question was digitized and published online by Japan's National Diet Library. The publication date is listed in the traditional Japanese style as "Showa 10" — that is, 1935.

Japanese Blogger Points Out Timeline Flaw In Supposed Earhart Photo
 

I thought the photo was suspicious....but for entirely the wrong reasons.

Once again an entire programme built on so called evidence that could have been disproved with some proper research.

Maybe the History Channel should stick to it's normal nonsense about aliens and submarines to Argentina and leave real history to someone else.

Incidentally, I think Airframes was right all along, the photo clearly shows Fred and Ginger visiting the set of South Pacific at least twenty years after Earhart's demise.

Cheers

Steve
 

thankyou Shinpachi. very informative. it should be noted the Japanese were meticulous record keepers. For me this is proof enough....Earhart was never a guest of the IJN
 
I see that Shawn Henry of the History Channel is now on the record saying
"I think the evidence that we've collected thus far in totality says that Noonan and Earhart landed in the Marshall Islands. I think that that's true."
This despite the doubts (to put it mildly) about the provenance of their discovered photograph, the original of which they didn't bother to look for. Had they found it they would have discovered when it was taken, or at least published.
I suppose when you've got egg on your face the best thing is to ignore it and hope nobody else notices
Cheers
Steve
 
I am familiar with the feeling of egg on my face, not enjoyable, but it has taught me to be somewhat more careful before I pass on info without checking. Still happens, just not as frequently. Now how do you like your eggs, over medium, scrambled, sunny side up? I can serve em any way you want! The redness of my face always insures they are correctly cooked!
 
How difficult would it have been for the History Channel's team of so called researchers to check the photograph? Not very.

As Japanese military history blogger Kota Yamano noted in a July 9 post, he found the book [containing the photograph] after searching the National Diet Library, Japan's national library, using the term "Jaluit Atoll," the location featured in the photograph. "The photo was the 10th item that came up," he said in an interview with the Guardian. "I was really happy when I saw it. I find it strange that the documentary makers didn't confirm the date of the photograph or the publication in which it originally appeared. That's the first thing they should have done."

No sh*t Sherlock

Just how quickly and easily the whole nonsense of a story has unraveled is also revealing. It was shoddy work done by shoddy or dishonest research which didn't even last a week in the light of day. It's pathetic.

Cheers

Steve
 
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Well obviously they flew through a worm hole the Japanese had created at their secret base that is never mentioned in any paperwork, that's the reason why they and the wreckage were never found.

That photo just confirms it.......................

 
As a cautionary note regarding witness accounts, I would draw attention to the number of people who have emerged from the woodwork claiming to have seen Earhart or Noonan on Saipan SINCE the now discredited photograph appeared. I suspect they will all now gracefully retire back into the woodwork
Cheers
Steve
 
Robert Porter said:
But but but I seen it on the internet AND TV... it HAS to be true! Cousin momma sister said to ask uncle brother daddy if I did not believe it!
Click to expand...

This is what really grinds my gears about the whole episode. It gave credence to the Marshall Islands/ Saipan story which is hardly new (see Campbell's nonsense in 'Amelia Earhart: The Truth at Last). Unfortunately the unraveling of the story, which was predicated on that photograph, some thoroughly unreliable recollections, and other baseless conjecture, will do nothing to remove from people's minds the idea that Earhart and Noonan fell into the hands of the Japanese and suffered an unfortunate fate in their hands. It doesn't help that this panders to some nasty and unjustified prejudices about the Japanese.
The producers admitted the pivotal role of the photograph in their argument when one of the researchers for the programme told the Washington Post

"When you look at the totality of what we put together and then hold that photograph. … I think that photograph is as close to a smoking gun as you're going to have in a cold case that's 80 years old,"

My bold.

Well it isn't a smoking gun, it is provably bogus, but, as you say, there are certain people who will believe it because they watched a two hour documentary on the History Channel that said it was so. How long will the rebuttal be? Will they apologise? they show no signs of doing so yet.
All the programme makers have done so far is issue the following statement

"HISTORY has a team of investigators exploring the latest developments about Amelia Earhart and we will be transparent in our findings. Ultimately, historical accuracy is most important to us and our viewers."

The last sentence actually made me laugh out loud! (I had just read that the programme makers reversed their image of Noonan to make the hairline match that of the man in the infamous photograph, so much for objectivity.)

Just to clarify, I don't know what happened to Earhart and Noonan. I'm pretty sure that they were never in Japanese hands. I suspect, simply based on the probabilities, that they went into the Pacific Ocean, which means that TIGHAR have got it wrong as well. I doubt that we will ever know for sure. The one thing I am sure about is that none of them, Campbell, Gillespie (TIGHAR), or any of the others are just one piece of evidence away from proving their pet theory, but while they can find mugs to finance their efforts I'll wish them good luck.

Cheers

Steve
 
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ONE single piece of evidence possibly discredited. It's truly amazing how so many of you jump with total belief and vindication glee on that ONE negative finding that supports your belief but reacted with total disbelieving disdain and ridicule when the one positive finding (photograph) was first presented.
Personally the photograph was never a serious piece of evidence especially in today's digital world where photographs are so easily altered. Likewise the blurry indistinct Earhart figure was only suggestive. I was more impressed with the Noonan-figure. Though blurred as well facial features and hairline very very close matches.
So my opinion is unchanged, photograph or not. There is too much other circumstantial and documented evidence present not to give credence to the Earhart/Marshall Island/capture scenario.

Actual documents show that Earhart's Electra had 1156 gallons of fuel on board at take off and at the estimated burn rate she had easily 4 - 5 hours of flying time remaining when she arrived in the vicinity of Howland (IF she was in that vicinity). The running low on fuel messages were not that her tanks were empty but that she had used up her "search for Howland" allotment. Turning west and heading for the Gilberts (her documented back-up plan) meant the end (most likely) of her round the world attempt. A bad landing, plane damage, possible injuries, etc. in such a remote location would have doomed the attempt hence her panic. I think that TIGAR's scenario has some validity but the Mili Atoll and capture scenario has so much anecdotal evidence from so many sources that I cannot simply dismiss it out of hand.

IMHO Fred Noonan is the key to the entire mystery. Earhart only flew the plane. Noonan had to determine WHERE they were in the vast Pacific ocean. But at the same time Earhart had to follow his directions and Earhart had no navigational skills. On an earlier leg when approaching Africa they were supposed to land at Dakar. Noonan offset his course to the north and told Earhart to turn south she instead turned North. Fortunately over land, they "found" St.Louis, Sengal missing Dakar by 120 miles.
Radio Direction Finder
Bendix D-Fs are designed to operate in conjunction with Bendix Type RA-1 receiver, but will also give accurate and dependable bearings when used with any standard radio receiver covering the desired frequency range. The Bendix company specs put these within the frequency range of 200–1500 kilocycles.

Where Earhart got the idea that her direction finder could cover "from 200 to 1500 and 2400 to 4800 kilocycles" is not clear, but the signals she requested on 7500 kilocycles were far beyond even those limits.

In a system using only the Western Electric receiver with a Bendix coupler unit, any change of reception frequency and/or antenna functions from communications to D/F would involve complex switchology: changing bands, considerable cranking of the coffee-grinder receiver control head, as well as tuning the Bendix coupler.
There were always two positions of the loop antenna that produced a null, one pointed toward the radio station, while the other pointed 180 degrees away from the radio station. The two null points were potentially confusing. To resolve she must know the general direction of the transmitter. The loop antenna on Howland Island and the one on board Itasca would each have two nulls. Accordingly, for resolution, radio operators would need to know the direction from which the aircraft is approaching.

Earhart had requested a DF system be placed on Howland and had likely assumed that the DF that had been installed at Howland in response to the suggestion made earlier by Noonan and herself was a functional equivalent of a PAA-Adcock system that she was familiar with.
Unfortunately the direction finder station on Howland Island actually consisted of an aircraft type radio receiver and an aircraft type rotatable loop antenna which had been "hay-wired" together into a temporary DF installation. It operated off storage batteries borrowed from Itasca. The receiver and loop had been "moon-light requisitioned" from a Navy patrol plane at Fleet Air Base, Pearl Harbor.

The equipment appears to have been a military version, of the Bendix receiver and loop in the Earhart plane. At any rate, with a loop antenna, it certainly was not a high frequency direction finder and the probability of taking meaningful bearings with it on 3105 kHz over any significant distance, was practically nil. The Howland DF operator [Radioman 2nd Class Frank Cipriani] had only two opportunities to try taking a bearing on the plane, and in each case the plane's transmission was so short that a really good attempt could not be made.

Back to Fred Noonan, he offsets the heading to the north. By happenstance, cumulative navigation errors turn out to be near the extreme left of the direct course taking the flight outside the range of the DF. At the ETA for the 157/337 LOP, Noonan calls for a turn toward the south onto a heading of 157 degrees.

After some period of time on that heading Amelia Earhart concludes that the flight should be inside the DF's range, but gets no joy on the radio. Both Fred Noonan and Amelia Earhart are unaware that, because of multiple critical issues, no usable DF existed either at Howland Island or on Itasca.

Amelia Earhart then concludes that Fred Noonan's landfall offset was to the wrong side and Howland lies to the north. As pilot-in-command, Amelia Earhart decides to reverse direction to 337 degrees and flies toward the north, away from Howland.

The Itasca operators transmitted on 3105 asking Earhart to send on 500 kilocycles so the ship's low frequency direction finder could get a fix on her. Obviously no one on Itasca knew that Earhart did not have the equipment to broadcast on 500 kilocycles, BUT her DF could have RECEIVED on this frequency but Itasca was listening not broadcasting

At 0512, Earhart's voice "WANT BEARINGS ON 3105 KILOCYCLES ON HOUR. WILL WHISTLE IN MICROPHONE.

The only high-frequency direction finder available that could take a bearing on 3105 kilocycles was the Navy set ashore on Howland and Earhart wasn't staying on the air long enough for him to get a fix. The whistling into the mike helped, but it was too short as well. Another important factor was that the wet-cell batteries that powered the direction finder were the wrong type and were beginning to run down.

At 0545 "PLEASE TAKE A BEARING ON US AND REPORT IN HALF-HOUR. I WILL MAKE NOISE IN MICROPHONE. ABOUT 100 MILES OUT." Still more whistling. On Howland, Cipriani made a note on his log: "Her carrier is completely modulated. I cannot get a bearing."

At 0757, still on 3105 kilocycles, Amelia's voice"WE ARE CIRCLING BUT CANNOT SEE ISLAND. CANNOT HEAR YOU. GO AHEAD ON 7500 KILOCYCLES ON LONG COUNT EITHER NOW OR ON SCHEDULE TIME OF HALF-HOUR"

The Itasca operators looked at each other in amazement. Now Earhart was trying to use her own direction finder, but none of them had any idea it ranged to 7500 kilocycles. Quickly the Itasca transmitter (Morse Code) began to pour forth a stream of letter "A's" on the suggested frequency.

Almost immediately, at 0803, Amelia replied, "WE RECEIVED YOUR SIGNALS BUT UNABLE TO GET MINIMUM. PLEASE TAKE BEARING ON US AND ANSWER ON 3105 KILOCYCLES." This time she made long dashes by depressing the microphone button, but still the Howland direction finder could not get a bearing. Cipriani shook his head in desperation. The batteries were almost completely discharged.

At 0843, "WE ARE ON THE LINE OF POSITION 157 DASH 337. WILL REPEAT THIS MESSAGE ON 6210 KILOCYCLES. WE ARE NOW RUNNING NORTH AND SOUTH."

Amelia was switching to her daytime frequency. Itasca's operators immediately monitored 6210 kilocycles but were greeted with nothing but static. It was their last radio contact.

Commander Thompson to his credit raised Itasca's anchor at 1040 hours. He spent the first night chasing meteors which he mistook for flares. However, given Noonan's professional reputation, Thompson should have searched initially along Noonan's Line-of-Positioning (LOP) as radioed by Earhart. Why would you adopt any other starting point? The search should have been conducted during daylight hours only, whilst at night the cutter should have hove to, allowing the two-knot current to equally carry both vessel and downed aircraft (assuming it was still afloat) in the same direction. Thompson instead searched an arc a good hundred miles east of the Noonan's LOP. Why he thought that Noonan could wander off course this far is hard to fathom, for such would have required an error around nine times Noonan's proven maximum error and Earhart had radioed that she was flying North, along the 157-337 LOP. History will never know why Commander Thompson looked so far elsewhere.

For those of you who favor the "Open Ocean Ditching" scenario (which I find to be possible but WHY when you have fuel for 4 - 5 hours) note that the swell was uncharacteristically calm around Howland that morning, so the chances are that Earhart ditched successfully. While the Electra had a positive buoyancy of about 2,400 Kg the center of buoyancy was well aft of the engines, meaning that shortly after ditching the Electra would have nosed downwards. The cockpit would soon have flooded, forcing the tail higher and making it difficult to reach the dinghy and all the emergency gear stored aft. Unless Earhart and Noonan were able to secure and clamber into the raft, they would not have survived long under such conditions. Given all other factors, neither would have the Electra. What happened in the first day of the search was crucial. Days and more days were wasted as Commander Thompson and Itasca wandered purposely, yet increasingly distant from the Electra – assuming it remained afloat. Perhaps the two crew made it into their raft and then drifted into a prolonged death through exposure.
 
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