F-117A, U-2 and Half of the B-52 Fleet Many Go Away

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I think we should show glimpses of what's in these area 51 sites just to scare everyone else. Kind of like dropping the towel in the locker room and everyone's like holy crap! 8)
 
We are probably looking at the last manned aircraft in military inventories now. Except for a very few future derivitives in the next few decades that are little different, in 50 years UCAVs will bear the brunt of any combat scenarios in a half century. Face it, as a country we simply can't stomach casualties no matter how light. The breakthroughs in artifial intelligence for machine-made decision making in real time on the spot are coming as fast as computers are evolving. The military has been quietly dedicated to a robot front line force for some time. They may seem quaint today, the UCAVs, but by the time the last of the B-52s retire in 2040 we won't recognize anything in common with today's.....those of us who will be alive.
 
I disagree with you to an extent I see them getting more and more closer to going to all unmanned aircraft but as a US Army Helicpter Crewman I dont see Tactical Utilility Helicopter types like the Blackhawk that I crew, being replaced by unmanned vehicals and time in the near future. For ground attack operations, yes that I can see very soon actually. Hell we have already used UAVs in Iraq and Afganistan to fire missles at ground targets.
 
I disagree to a point as well. I think we'll see them used together. I thinks its too premature to say the manned combat aircraft is becoming obsolete. I remember in the 1960s when folks were saying that air-to-air combat was obsolete but yet Mig-17s were knocking down F-4 over North Vietnam...
 
In certein high risk situations, we will see the UAV's performing this roll.

Maybe if the PRC has a Fighter fleet of 2000 aircraft, we would fight them with drones.
 
Fighters, fighters and bombers in 50 years will be Star Trek automated and smart. Think of artificial intelligence 50 years ago. It existed as the most rudimentary form of simply computing device. Now think 50 years from now. The advances in this type of field have and will continue to grow exponentially. It will expand as have aero design overall and as all electronic devices have.We have no choice since the country can't stomach casualties any more.
 

Its still wait and see - remember these casualities the contry can't stomach are from ground forces - although the Army has lost many in helicopters, there have been a limited number of aircraft destroyed between Gulf War 1 and today. I see it coming but I don't think its going to be as automated as we would like to think.....
 
We are talking about the dangerous missions that can easily be done by drones. SAM suppresion? Use a drone. Attack a formation of tanks under an umbrella of SAMS and AAA? Use a drone. Go hunting for fighter jets? Use a drone.
 
syscom3 said:
We are talking about the dangerous missions that can easily be done by drones. SAM suppresion? Use a drone. Attack a formation of tanks under an umbrella of SAMS and AAA? Use a drone. Go hunting for fighter jets? Use a drone.
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Easier said than done right now, although full size fighters like an F-4 have been droned, achieving the same combat capability as a manned fighter is still a generation away for a number of reasons. Do you know most computers used on combat aircraft today only have about a 286 capacity? Its only going to improve marginally in the next few years...

A man in the cockpit in some capacity over the battlefield will always be part of the scenerio, if for anything the human decision making process that a computer can not do....
 
Im talking about a dozen years from now.

And dont think that just because a computer is just a '286, its not capable. No need to have a supercomputer doing the work that a plain old low speed controller can do just as effectively.
 
syscom3 said:
Im talking about a dozen years from now.

And dont think that just because a computer is just a '286, its not capable. No need to have a supercomputer doing the work that a plain old low speed controller can do just as effectively.
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Me too...

No, its kept low because of software reliability, that's one of the current limitations for a fully autonomous UAV and the government is dictating this.
 
evangilder said:
As long as the processor is not running Windoze!
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Yep! I remember one of my X-35 engineering friends telling me that even on that thing (and probably the F-35) it was going to be the same thing, but who knows, that may change....
 
In the most simple scenario the aircraft would fly on auto and have an interface capability, as UAVs and UCAVs do now, for human interface. When it gets to the target or it is intercepted or otherwise interfered with the human pilot could get hands-on. Imagine maneuvering with an enemy pilot in a craft that can pull 18 Gs against his 9 while you take a hit of Mountain Dew between maneuvers.

Evasion of SAMs and other missiles could use the machine's pro-active intelligence and use electronic countermeasures and a series of maneuvers, chaff and whatever is required in a very short span of time employing G forces far greater than a human could stand.

Sure this ain't gonna happen overnight but when you look at an F-100 from 1953 and the F-35 of today and the chasm is so wide in 53 years. From 1903 to 1953 was the span of the Wright flyer to the F-100! In 53 more what will it be?

Everything will not be robot but much more will be and the thing that pisses everybody off, the cost, will decrease. Most of the expense of aircraft revolves around the systems and safeguards to ensure survival of the human pilot onboard.

Yeah it'll be a weird and sad day when UCAV # 61776v becomes and "ace" after downing 5 E/A over Lower Slobovia but at least there won't be a national hand wringing that accompanies the pondering of the unknown fates every time we have pilots captured in some rinky dink conflict.
 
Its always good to bring up time span comparisons to the "non beleivers".

For those of us that are old enough to remember........... I remember when the 8086 processor was the neatest new fangled invention, and dial up modems were really pushing the envelope at 150 baud!
 

Non-believers? Yea, Like I said earlier, many thought air-to air combat was a thing of the past and any air-to-air combat would be accomplished by missiles only - that was 1966 - look where we are 40 years later, our newest fighters still have guns!!!

Because we started getting our butts kicked in Vietnam because we relied too much on technology....
 
You paint a great science fiction scenio - while I believe its achievable around the corner, there's many variables and military doctrine to be considered before all this happens....

see this: http://www.nellis.af.mil/units/UAVB/initiatives.asp
 
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