Greatest aviation myth this site “de-bunked”.

[GregP]

Statistics DO work, assuming the requirements for random samples are met (rarely in my experience), and that's why there are Casinos.

Everyone thinks they can beat the odds. They CAN, at some point, but not over the long haul.

And dealers in Las Vegas are not your run of the mill average dealers, either, making the likely odds even worse.

 

[Reluctant Poster]

From "STRINGBAG The Fairey Swordfish at War", David Wragg, 2004:

Later in the war, No. 830 was to be reinforced with additional Swordfish, and later still a number of Albacores. At one time it became known as the Naval Air Squadron Malta, reaching a peak strength of twenty-seven aircraft, reinforced by a second Swordfish squadron, or parts of squadrons, as happened after the attack on Illustrious, and later Formidable. Malta-based naval aircraft sank an average of 50,000 tons of enemy shipping a month, hindering Italian efforts to keep Axis forces in North Africa supplied, and during one month managed to sink 98,000 tons ofAxis shipping. During 1942, Malta-based Swordfish and Albacores were to account for thirty ships in thirty-six night attacks for a cost of sixty-seven torpedoes and just three aircraft.​

"Malta-based naval aircraft" may not mean only Swordfish, as there were Albacores on Malta during this time. I don't know their numbers or what else was in anti-shipping service at Malta at the time. Possibly Beaufighters and/or Beauforts.

"Fairey Aircraft since 1915", Taylor, 1974, states (p249-250):

According to the records there were never more than 27 Swordfish on Malta, yet they sank an average of 50,000 tons of shipping every month during a period of nine months.​

I'd say the 50,000 tons per month is closer to being plausible rather than a myth.

According to the figures from "Strangling the Axis" aircraft sank 153,000 tons in 1941, 195,563 tons in 1942 and 474,407 tons in 1943. They achieved a monthly high of 35,196 tons in August 1941, exceeded that with 44,105 in November 1942. In no other month did they exceed 30,000. 1943 was when aircraft really shone with the month of May being a major outlier with 101,086 tons coinciding with the Axis collapse in North Africa.
Even in 1943 the average monthly total was less than 50,000.

 

[Simon Thomas]

The posts subsequent to mine I thought were rather illuminating on the subject. Based on what was presented, I'll relent to changing "plausible" to "not supported by the preponderance of post-war evidence".

None of the sources for numbers of tonnage sunk per month or year align. Reconciling the numbers would be a great task to give a vacation student you don't like.

All sources posted for the actual tonnage lost were quite a bit less than that published in the books I referenced. Appears the numbers were claims which were obviously inflated like claims tend to be. I looked up some more Swordfish books, and they tend to have the same figures quoted. The earliest reference was "BRITISH NAVAL AIRCRAFT 1912-1958" published in 1958, which I don't have access to. Finding the source of the numbers in the books would help further the discussion. I don't know of any serious authors who would deliberately falsify numbers, although this forum knows one who is very good at tossing his toys out of the cot.

One thing I would add is that the claim numbers may have included tonnage sunk due to mines laid by the Swordfish. Wragg puts that at 250,000 tons between May and Nov 1941.

 

[WARSPITER]

It is difficult to know what exactly happened.

Total Axis losses in supplies and shipping for the Mediterranean from collation by various sources ;

315,090 tons of supplies.

773 ships, totalling 1,342,789 tons sunk by Allied naval vessels
179 ships of 214,109 tons in total lost to mines.
Shared sinking naval/air/mines, 26 ships at 107828 tons.
1,326 ships, totalling 1,466,208 tons sunk by aircraft.

Total Axis losses - 2,304 ships, with a total of 3,130,969 tons.

What actual types sank what is hard to work out.